NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2015
VALID 081700Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST ARE NECESSARY. GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE LAX-TPH GRADIENT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND -8 MB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
NONETHELESS...THE RELATIVELY LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE OVERLAP BETWEEN
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES /PRIMARILY CONFINED TO FAVORED CANYONS
AND PASSES/ PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF AN ELEVATED DESIGNATION.
..PICCA.. 10/08/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0327 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER FAR NRN MEXICO WILL SHIFT SWD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NW...WRN GREAT BASIN...AND CA. FARTHER E...SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN MN WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD FROM
MT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRECEDING THE NRN MN
SHORTWAVE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR PATH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS
VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY...AND GREAT BASIN.
...SRN CA...
OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH THE LAX-TPH GRADIENT AROUND -8 MB BY 12Z/FRI. RESULTING
GUSTY WINDS AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FAVORED
PASSES AND CANYONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES. LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR ANY OUTLOOK AREAS. IF CONFIDENCE IN
A LARGER SPATIAL EXTENT OF THESE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
INCREASES...AN ELEVATED AREA MAY BE NEEDED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
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