Threat of Severe Thunderstorms Returns to Midwest, Plains this Weekend

At a Glance

• A low-pressure system will move through the Midwest and Plains this weekend.
• Thunderstorms are expected to accompany this system, and a few severe storms are possible, mainly on Saturday.
• Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will also be a concern.

Severe thunderstorms will return to the central United States this weekend as a potent low-pressure system moves into portions of the Midwest and Plains.

A low-pressure system is currently very slowly tracking through the Plains and the upper Midwest. This system will continue to push eastward through Sunday.

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

(Watches and warnings are issued by the National Weather Service.)

Into early Saturday, a cold front will briefly stall across portions of the Midwest and into the central and southern Plains as waves of low pressure develop and slide along the boundary.
This boundary will be the focal point for thunderstorm development this weekend.
(MORE: Tornado Central)

This is the setup for severe thunderstorms Saturday.

A low-level jet, or area of relatively strong winds just above the surface in the lower atmosphere, is expected to strengthen Saturday into Saturday night. Upper-level winds are also expected to be strong with this system on Saturday, providing moderate wind shear, or changing wind speed and direction with height.
There will also be plenty of warm, moist air, contributing to instability in the atmosphere.
(MORE: Summerlike Warmth Continues in Parts of Midwest, East)
This system will begin to slide east as a cold front late Saturday and will bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Midwest and Northeast on Sunday. In addition, cooler conditions are expected with temperatures returning to average for mid-October, at least for a couple days.

Forecast Details

Saturday

• Forecast: The frontal system will focus the risk for a few severe thunderstorms from western Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas into northern Missouri and southeastern Iowa by late afternoon.
• Threats: Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns, but an isolated tornado is also possible.
• Cities: Wichita, Kansas | Topeka, Kansas | Kirksville, Missouri

Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast

(Red areas indicate where the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms is located, while orange areas denote general thunderstorms not necessarily reaching severe limits.)

Saturday Night

• Forecast: Thunderstorms should be more numerous ahead of an advancing cold front, and the risk of severe storms will stretch from Oklahoma northeastward into northern Illinois and far southern Wisconsin.
• Threats: Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main threats, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
• Cities: Oklahoma City | Kansas City | Davenport, Iowa

Saturday Night's Thunderstorm Forecast

(Red areas indicate where the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms is located, while orange areas denote general thunderstorms not necessarily reaching severe limits.)

This system will begin to march eastward on Sunday through the Midwest and into the East. Showers and thunderstorms are expected from Texas to the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday, spreading into the Northeast and parts of the Southeast Sunday night.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.