Saturday, May 31, 2014

Live saver for the Gulf Stream? Climate changes supplies more saline waters from Indian Ocean

The Gulf Stream system is known for its impact on Europe's mild climate. For quite some time oceanographers and climate scientists worry that its strength could decline due to the climate change. Unexpected help could come from the ocean currents south of Africa: researchers of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR) and the University of Cape Town have discovered that the Agulhas Current transports more saline waters into the Atlantic. These could potentially contribute to stabilize the Gulf Stream system. The study will appear on 26 November in the scientific journals Nature.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091127134037.htm

Climate change to intensify important African weather systems



Climate change could strengthen African easterly waves, which could in turn have consequences for rainfall in the Sahel region of northern Africa, formation of Atlantic hurricanes and dust transport across the Atlantic Ocean. Weather systems that bring rainstorms to many drought-prone areas of northern Africa, carry Saharan dust across the ocean and seed Atlantic hurricanes could grow stronger as a result of human-caused climate change, a new analysis by Stanford scientists suggests.
 

Noctilucent Clouds

The word almost sounds like it's from space. And indeed, noctilucent clouds are very different from their more familiar, terrestrial cousins.
If you've never heard of noctilucent clouds, don't worry, it's not just you. The clouds occur under very strict atmospheric conditions, and only during a handful of weeks in the year.

Hurricane Season 2014: 10 Myths Debunked


Let's apply some truth serum to some stubborn myths about hurricanes and tropical storms, starting with the impacts that are most likely to claim lives.
Tropical cyclones are categorized by wind speed, but it's the storm surge – the water rise generated by a hurricane or tropical storm – that is the greatest U.S. tropical cyclone killer, making up 50 percent of all tropical cyclone-related deaths.

Severe Weather Forecast: Multi-Day Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak Expected

Typical of late spring, we have been seeing clusters of thunderstorms in many states over the past several days, with localized bouts of severe weather and flash flooding.
This weekend, a more substantial threat of severe weather, including the threat of some tornadoes, will materialize over the nation's heartland, as somewhat stronger jet stream energy swings over a warm, somewhat humid air mass. Another round of organized and potentially widespread severe weather could threaten the Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday.


Hurricanes







http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/hurricane-profile/

Hurricanes are giant, spiraling tropical storms that can pack wind speeds of over 160 miles (257 kilometers) an hour and unleash more than 2.4 trillion gallons (9 trillion liters) of rain a day. These same tropical storms are known as cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, and as typhoons in the western Pacific Ocean.

Chasing Tornadoes (Tornado Alley)





http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/chasing-tornadoes/



Around dinner hour on June 24, 2003, the entire hamlet of Manchester, South Dakota—walls and rooftops, sheds and fences, TVs, refrigerators, and leftover casseroles—lifts from the earth and disappears into a dark, thick, half-mile-wide (0.8-kilometer-wide) tornado. The pieces whirl high in the twister's 200-mile-an-hour (321-kilometer-an-hour) winds, like so much random debris swept clean from the landscape.

The Most Destructive U.S. Hurricanes of All Time

Hurricanes have been menacing the U.S. as long as anyone can remember, but the monetary damages the storms have caused has increased in recent years, as this TIME photo collection shows. The devastation from Hurricane Sandy — later dubbed a “Superstorm” — rang in at $65 billion, leaving 72 people dead and more than 6 million homeless



http://time.com/123246/most-destructive-us-hurricanes/.

Hurricane activity


Atlantic Basin Satellite Image

Amanda officially degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low Thursday, roughly one week after first forming as a tropical depression well off the Mexican Pacific coast.
While remaining out to sea, Amanda became the most intense May tropical cyclone on record in the eastern Pacific Ocean, narrowly missing Category 5 status on May 25.

Hurricane Season

The eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30. Although the average date of the first named system is June 10, about once every 2-3 years the first named storm forms before this average date. NOAA is forecasting an average to slightly above average hurricane season in the eastern Pacific. The Atlantic hurricane season starts a week from Sunday.

golf gets soaked



After an already soaking week of weather, a stalled upper-level disturbance will continue to bring flooding downpours to portions of the South into the weekend.
Houston, Texas; New Orleans and Shreveport, Louisiana; and Jackson, Mississippi, will all be at risk for more flooding issues as showers and storms continue to bring drenching downpours.
These showers and storms will have the tendency to move slow, which will increase the threat for flash flooding through Saturday.



severe weather in the plains

Plains through the weekend, threatening outdoor activities from Texas to Minnesota.
Anyone planning on going to an amusement park, concert or a local event should be on the lookout for these storms and know where to seek safety if they strike.
The severe weather danger will slowly shift south and east heading into the weekend, impacting a larger area and more cities.
Similar to those on Friday, the main threats from storms over the weekend will be damaging winds and large hail, although a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Frequent lighting will also accompany these thunderstorms, making it dangerous to be in a pool or open field until the storm has passed.








lightning kills


Lightning has claimed four lives so far this year across the United States. People who do not take the proper precautions could suffer the same fate or injury as thunderstorm activity increases through the summer months.
It is no coincidence that the average number of lightning deaths across the U.S. peaks at the same time of thunderstorm activity and when people are spending more time outdoors.
The plethora of summer thunderstorms is the result of the influx of warm and moist air that is usually not present in the cooler months. Frontal boundaries, mountains, tropical systems and daytime heating give rise to the thunderstorms.
The atmosphere is always trying to find a balance and thunderstorms are nature's air conditioners on a hot and humid summer day.
For the start of June 2014, thunderstorms will remain concentrated across the Deep South, Plains and northern Rockies with isolated afternoon thunderstorms dotting the Cascades and Sierra Nevada.





Crews shift from rescue to recovery a day after Oklahoma tornado


 



Moore, Oklahoma (CNN) -- A search-and-rescue effort to find survivors of a monster tornado that pulverized a vast swath of the suburbs of Oklahoma City shifted Tuesday to one of recovery, officials said.
No new survivors or bodies have been found since the early hours after the tornado carved a trail 17 miles long on Monday afternoon.
"We feel like we have basically gone from rescue and searching to recovery," Glenn Lewis, the mayor of hard-hit Moore, told CNN's Anderson Cooper.
Lewis said he didn't expect the death toll to climb any higher. At least 24 people, including nine children, were killed, according to the state medical examiner's office.

Dust storms spread deadly diseases worldwide


Dust storms spread deadly diseases worldwide

Dust storms like the one that plagued Sydney are blowing bacteria to all corners of the globe, with viruses that will attack the human body. Yet these scourges can also help mitigate climate change


The Observer, Saturday 26 September 2009

 

Huge dust storms, like the ones that blanketed Sydney twice last week, hit Queensland yesterday and turned the air red across much of eastern Australia, are spreading lethal epidemics around the world. However, they can also absorb climate change emissions, say researchers studying the little understood but growing phenomenon. The Sydney storm, which left millions of people choking on some of the worst air pollution in 70 years, was a consequence of the 10-year drought that has turned parts of Australia's interior into a giant dust bowl, providing perfect conditions for high winds to whip loose soil into the air and carry it thousands of miles across the continent.

It followed major dust storms this year in northern China, Iraq and Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, east Africa, Arizona and other arid areas. Most of the storms are also linked to droughts, but are believed to have been exacerbated by deforestation, overgrazing of pastures and climate change. As diplomats prepare to meet in Bangkok tomorrow for the next round of climate talks, meteorologists predict that more major dust storms can be expected, carrying minute particles of beneficial soil and nutrients as well as potentially harmful bacteria, viruses and fungal spores. "The numbers of major dust storms go up and down over the years," said Andrew Goudie, geography professor at Oxford University. "In Australia and China they tailed off from the 1970s then spiked in the 1990s and at the start of this decade. At the moment they are clearly on an upward trajectory."

Laurence Barrie is chief researcher at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva, which is working with 40 countries to develop a dust storm warning system. He said: "I think the droughts [and dust storms] in Australia are a harbinger. Dust storms are a natural phenomenon, but are influenced by human activities and are now just as serious as traffic and industrial air pollution. The minute particles act like urban smog or acid rain. They can penetrate deep into the human body." Saharan storms are thought to be responsible for spreading lethal meningitis spores throughout semi-arid central Africa, where up to 250,000 people, particularly children, contract the disease each year and 25,000 die. "There is evidence that the dust can mobilise meningitis in the bloodstream," said Barrie.

Higher temperatures and more intense storms are also linked to "valley fever", a disease contracted from a fungus in the soil of the central valley of California. The American Academy of Microbiology estimates that about 200,000 Americans go down with valley fever each year, 200 of whom die. The number of cases in Arizona and California almost quadrupled in the decade to 2006.

Dust from the Gobi and Taklimakan deserts is often present over the western United States in the spring and can lead to disastrous air quality in Korean, Japanese and Russian cities. It frequently contributes to the smogs over Los Angeles. Britain and northern Europe are not immune from dust storms. Dust blown from the Sahara is commonly found in Spain, Italy and Greece and the WMO says that storms deposit Saharan dust north of the Alps about once a month. Last year Britain's Meteorological Office reported it in south Wales. Some scientists sought to attribute the 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak to a giant storm in north Africa that carried dust and possibly spores of the animal disease as far as northern Britain only a week before the first reported cases. The scale and spread of the dust storms has also surprised researchers. Satellite photographs have shown some of the clouds coming out of Africa to be as big as the whole land mass of the US, with a major storm able to whip more than a million tonnes of soil into the atmosphere. Sydney was covered by an estimated 5,000 tonnes of dust last week, but the WMO says Beijing was enveloped by more than 300,000 tonnes in one storm in 2006.

"The 2-3 billion tonnes of fine soil particles that leave Africa each year in dust storms are slowly draining the continent of its fertility and biological productivity," said Lester Brown, director of the Earth Policy Institute research group in Washington DC. "Those big storms take millions of tonnes of soil, which takes centuries to replace." Brown and Chinese scientists say the increased number of major dust storms in China is directly linked to deforestation and the massive increase in numbers of sheep and goats since the 1980s, when restrictions on herders were removed. "Goats will strip vegetation," said Brown. "They ate everything and dust storms are now routine. If climate change leads to a reduction in rainfall, then the two trends reinforce themselves." China is planting tens of millions of trees to act as a barrier to the advancing desert.




A dust storm blankets Sydney's iconic Opera House at sunrise. Photograph: Tim Wimborne/Reuters


 

Tornado devastates Joplin, Missouri, 116 dead


Tornado devastates Joplin, Missouri, 116 dead

By Kevin Murphy

JOPLIN, Missouri Mon May 23, 2011 6:39pm EDT

(Reuters) - A monster tornado killed at least 116 people in Joplin, Missouri when it tore through the heart of the small city, ripping the roof off a hospital and destroying thousands of homes and businesses.

Weather officials said the tornado that hit the city of 50,000 at dinner time on Sunday was the deadliest single tornado in the country since 1947 and the ninth-deadliest tornado of all time, they said.
Emergency officials said on Monday 116 people were killed and about 400 were injured. According to local officials many had massive internal injuries.

Seven people had been rescued, Missouri Governor Jay Nixon told reporters in Joplin. Emergency crews searched through the night and through a thunderstorm with driving rain on Monday for anyone left alive.

"We still believe there are folks alive under the rubble and we're trying hard to reach them," Nixon said.

Survivors told harrowing stories of riding out winds of 190-198 mph in walk-in coolers in restaurants and convenience stores, hiding in bathtubs and closets, and of running for their lives as the tornado bore down. 
"We were getting hit by rocks and I don't even know what hit me," said Leslie Swatosh, 22, who huddled on the floor of a liquor store with several others, holding onto each other and praying.

When the tornado passed, the store was destroyed but those inside were all alive. "Everyone in that store was blessed. There was nothing of that store left," she said.

More severe storms were predicted for the region, in a year that has brought tornadoes of record intensity across several states. Further complicating the rescue effort, power lines were downed, broken gas lines ignited fires, and cell phone communications were spotty due to 17 toppled phone towers.

A number of bodies were found along the city's "restaurant row," on the main commercial street and a local nursing home took a direct hit, said Newton County Coroner Mark Bridges.

Roaring along a path nearly six miles long and about 1/2 mile to 3/4 mile wide, the tornado flattened whole neighborhoods, splintered trees and flipped over cars and trucks. Some 2,000 homes and many other businesses, schools and other buildings were destroyed.

At St John's hospital 180 patients cowered as the fierce winds blew out windows and pulled off the roof. According to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert, X-ray films from the hospital were found 70 miles away.

20 MINUTES NOTICE

The city's residents were given about 20 minutes' notice when 25 warning sirens sounded in the evening, said Jasper County Emergency Management Director Keith Stammers.

Nixon said many people may have been unable to get to shelter in time. "The bottom line was the storm was so loud you probably couldn't hear the sirens going off." He declared a state of emergency and called out the National Guard to help.

An estimated 20,000 homes and businesses were without power in Joplin. To help with communications Verizon Wireless, a unit of Verizon Communications Inc, said it was delivering three temporary cell towers for emergency service.

The Joplin tornado was the latest in a string of powerful twisters that has wreaked death and devastation across many states, and it comes as much of the Mississippi River valley is underwater from massive flooding.
 


1 of 20. A woman removes a rifle from the debris of a destroyed home after a devastating tornado hit Joplin, Missouri May 23, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Mike Stone


 

Swamped East Coast Bailing Out From Violent Storms



Swamped East Coast Bailing Out From Violent Storms

May 1, 2014

By ABC NEWS via Good Morning America

Violent storms drenched the East Coast, leaving roadways flooded and snarling travel from New England to Florida. In Philadelphia, emergency crews had to save three people from the top of a public transport bus. In Delaware, nine children and a school bus driver had to be rescued after their bus got stuck in high waters. Baltimore was also soaked, with 24 hours of pounding rain gnawing away at roads, causing at least 10 cars to fall onto railroad tracks after the road gave way. “The sidewalk’s gone, the cars are gone and everything just fell,” said Diane Shaw, who works near the site. “It was like somebody came by and just ripped off the side of the road.”

New York City commuters faced delays this morning after a retaining wall collapsed onto Metro-North rail tracks in nearby Yonkers. Florida has been slammed by nearly 2 feet of rain in the past 24 hours, a continuation of a deadly storm system that brought tornadoes and flooding across the central and southern United States. For Washington, D.C., resident Monica Lester, the heavy rain wasn’t just annoying; it became a health hazard after Lester’s basement filled with several feet of sewage water. “The floors are buckled up. I have hardwood floors down there,” Lester said. “It’s a mess in my house. It stinks.”



 

2005: Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans


2005: Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans
Monday, 29 August 2005, 17:43 GMT 18:43 UK
Hurricane Katrina is pummelling New Orleans with howling gusts and blinding rain, after sweeping ashore over the southern Louisiana coast.
The storm has knocked out power and submerged part of the low-lying city in up to 6ft (2m) of rising water.
Katrina has torn part of the roof of a stadium, where many sought refuge. Mississippi and Alabama are also being pounded by the violent storm, which weakened as it swept inland, but brought winds of 105mph (170km/h). The category-two storm flung boats onto Mississippi, flooded roads in Alabama and swamped bridges in Florida.
The National Hurricane Center warned the Louisiana city would be pounded throughout Monday - and the potential storm surge could still swamp the city, which sits some 6ft (2m) below sea level. "It's capable of causing catastrophic damage," director Max Mayfield warned.
"New Orleans may never be the same." Correspondents in the city say walls of water have been running down the skyscrapers like waterfalls. Palm trees have been felled, shops wrecked and cars hurled across streets strewn with shattered glass. A police officer told the BBC he had never seen anything like it. "This is unbelievable," Jonathon Carol said. Mayor Ray Nagin has said he believed 80% of the city's 485,000 residents have heeded his order for a mandatory evacuation of the city.

The storm has knocked out power and submerged part of the low-lying city in up to 6ft (2m) of rising water.

Thousands of residents took refuge in the stadium
Katrina has torn part of the roof of a stadium, where many sought refuge.

 

California's fire fighters are braced for a long, hot - and busy - summer

New technology and equipment helps, but a three-year drought has created tinderbox conditions in Orange County
A helicopter drops water on a wildfire in California
Californian firefighters often battle fast-moving blazes, such as the 'Colby Fire' in Glendora, in January. Photograph: Gene Blevins/ GENE BLEVINS/Reuters/Corbis
Fire Helicopter One skimmed over the roofs of Fullerton, rotors whumping, and banked east, crossing the 91 freeway into a national park which from a distance appeared lush and green.
Scudding between two canyons, however, you could see it was brown scrub – a desolate vista of parched grass and stunted vegetation covering steep slopes.
"In a normal year these hills would be covered with brilliant yellow and purple wildflowers," said David Lopez, pointing out of the cockpit window. "But because of the drought it's completely dry." He shook his head. "It wouldn't take much for this place to go up."
Lopez, a fire captain with more than 20 years' experience combating blazes in southern California, is bracing for a long, hot summer. A three-year drought has created tinderbox conditions across much of the American west.
"I've seen flames move faster than a truck. Embers can fly across a highway and ignite the other side. In one hour a fire can go from one acre to a thousand."
A fire torched thousands of acres in Arizona last week days after about a dozen wildfires fuelled by strong winds and record temperatures flared across southern California.
Cooler temperatures, when they come, may bring limited respite: climate change has altered seasonal rhythms so that wildfires can, and do, erupt in winter.
California's fire season was now two months longer than a decade ago, requiring thousands of additional firefighters and year-round mobilisation, governor Jerry Brown said last week. Humanity was on a collision course with nature and California was in the frontline despite state efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, he warned. "In the meantime, all we can do is fight all these damn fires."
Lopez, 51, and his team of pilots at the Orange County fire authority base in Fullerton, like other helicopter units around the country, are often the first to reach blazes in remote, rugged terrain.
On a good day, they extinguish a fire before it spreads. On a bad day all they can do is try to steer it.
"We want to get out there real quickly and keep it small by attacking it with overwhelming force," he said. "If it's too late for that we try to drive it in the direction we want it to go. It's kind of like herding cattle."
Being buffeted by heat, smoke and wind as you hover 50ft over a conflagration, waiting for just the right moment and angle to unleash 360 gallons of water, and then returning to do it again and again, affords a unique perspective on wildfires. "It's a lot like war. The theories come from war fighting: massing of forces, anchoring and flanking, attacking when the enemy is weak," said Lopez, as the helicopter overflew ridges ravaged by fire last December, in the depth of supposed winter.
Jim Davidson, 67, seated at the controls of the Bell 412 twin-engine, nodded. He flew Hueys for the 1st Air Cavalry Division in Vietnam. "Same principle. You're moving people, assets. The conditions are extreme. You're trying to defeat the enemy."
Twice Davidson has helped save imperilled ground crews. "They were going to be hot dogs in a bun," he said, recalling a crew surrounded by the 2007 Santiago fire. The flames had cut their hose, leaving them without water and means of escape.
A 19-strong elite "Hotshot" crew battling the Yarnell Hill fire in Arizona last June was not so lucky. All died, making it the deadliest day for any US fire department since 9/11.
The federal forest service and the state service, Cal Fire, have fleets of planes and helicopters, but counties such as Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura and Kern keep their own fleets. Often they are called out to rescue hikers or mountain bikers – or horses, in a recent rescue conducted by Lopez's team – but their main task is quenching fires.
Two of Orange County's four helicopters are souped-up ex-army Hueys from Vietnam; the others are more modern Bells. Each has a 360-gallon water tank. A hose known as a snorkel enables them to refill in just 40 seconds – often from reservoirs or golf course lakes.
Night vision goggles let the Orange County pilots operate at night, a novelty, and iPads with mapping software let them send photographs and coordinates from the air to ground colleagues.
Power lines pose a grave danger, especially when obscured by smoke. "I hate them. They're my worst enemy," said Davidson. Another risk is collision from other aircraft clustered around a fire zone, requiring what commanders call "ballet in the air".
A long-term hazard, in addition to a heating planet, is economic development. Criss-cross the county at 1,000ft and it is striking how many bulldozers are carving out foundations for roads and houses in previously uninhabited wilderness areas – multiplying the lives and property to be defended.
Lopez pointed out homes in remote beauty spots – many of them mansions with swimming pools – beside trees. Lovely for shade and a leafy view but a disaster waiting to happen, said the fire captain. "We just look at that as fuel."
Laguna Beach, a wealthy area which lost 400 homes in a 1993 fire, has adapted: few of the rebuilt homes abut trees, and herds of goats curb hillside vegetation. "Some people have learned the lesson," said Davidson, looking down. "Some have not."
 http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/31/californian-fire-fighters-braced-for-long-hot-busy-summer

4 Extreme Weather Events Are Causing Havoc Around the World Right Now

Those of us who are still knee deep in the slush left behind by Winter Storm Nika — or skidding across its icy remains — can count ourselves lucky. (Well, those of us who have power, at least.) As unpleasant as the winter weather across eastern and central portions of the United States and Canada has been, it’s nothing compared to the meteorological crises currently being faced in other parts of the world.
1.

Image via Flickr
In Brazil, for instance, a historic drought is threatening the Sao Paulo’s water supply. The Cantareira water system, which serves over 10 million people, is usually flush at this time of year, as January is generally the height of the region’s rainy season. However, this year has seen so little rain that the city’s water could dry up in as little as six weeks; companies that depend on water for manufacturing have already had to close shop until rain comes. Worse, in addition to being dry, this past January was also the hottest on record for the city, ratcheting up energy consumption. With any luck, the rains will return in force soon, and continue through March, averting a crisis. If not, the city will have to make some tough decisions in advance of June’s World Cup.
2.

Image via NOAA
Sao Paulo isn’t the only place that’s dangerously dry right now. California just experienced the driest year in its history, leaving the snow pack in some of California’s Sierras is at as little as 4% of its normal levels. For the first time in half a century, areas that depend on the mountains for moisture will have to do without — including rural regions of central California, Silicon Valley, and Los Angeles. Governor Jerry Brown has declared a state of emergency, which stands to reason, as the problem has gotten so bad that it’s visible from space. The above photo shows what the Sierras looked like around this time last year, compared with today.
3.
Image via AP
In Australia, January's blistering heat wave has resulted in similarly dry conditions, leading to a spate of wildfires. Fire officers in the state of Victoria are urging residents to be prepared to evacuate, stressing that they should "leave and live." Since the beginning of the year, record temperatures have caused large-scale conflagrations throughout the country, from Western Australia, to South Australia, to New South Wales. Meanwhile, a town of 3,000 is considering evacuating in Queensland after all but going without rainfall for two years.
4.
And as goes winter weather? We could have it a lot worse. Between blizzards and an ice storm, the central European country of Slovenia has been glazed over entirely. Trees, buildings, and cars have been encased within a thick layer of ice, leading to some stunning pictures, but also perilous conditions, as power lines and trees have come tumbling to the ground. In fact, according to the government’s estimates, 40% of the country’s forests have been damaged by the past week’s weather.
So take heart. Things could be worse. Like, Australia worse. Plus, if all else fails, there’s always breakdancing.
Image via Reddit

 http://www.policymic.com/articles/81611/4-extreme-weather-events-are-causing-havoc-around-the-world-right-now

Volcanic ash cloud from Sangeang Api grounds Australia flights

International and domestic flights cancelled as ash cloud from eruption in southern Indonesia drifts over central Australia
Link to video: Indonesian volcano erupts causing travel chaos for Australia
An ashcloud has grounded flights between Australia and south-east Asia, and all domestic flights from Darwin airport in the north of the country.
The cloud, which was caused by the eruption of Sangeang Api in southern Indonesia on Friday evening, has drifted across central Australia, according to Reuters.
International flights to and from Australia to Singapore, East Timor and the Indonesian holiday island of Bali were among those cancelled, including those departing from Australia's eastern seaboard.
"The volcano is undergoing a sustained, rather significant eruption at the moment, so for the last 10 hours we've been observing large masses of volcanic ash being generated," Emile Jansons, the manager of the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre, told the agency.
"At the moment it has slowed down a little bit since its initial big eruption, but nobody has a very good handle on what this volcano is likely to do in the next 24 hours or beyond," he said.
Sangeang Api's last eruption of similar magnitude occurred in 1999, he added.
Based on weather conditions, it is unlikely that the ash cloud will dissipate before it reaches Australia's eastern airports and major populations centres, Jansons said.
He also said Darwin would be impacted until at least Sunday, and Virginia Sanders, a spokeswoman for Darwin International airport confirmed that all inbound and outbound flights had been cancelled.
Darwin's proximity to south-east Asia makes it an important Australian gateway to countries such as Indonesia and East Timor, and an important hub for oil and natural gas off Australia's north.
Volcanic ash can be extremely dangerous to aircraft and can cause engine failure or damage. In 2010, an ash cloud caused by the eruptions of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland caused the most widepsread grounding of flights since the second world war, including many Europe-bound flights from Australia.
On Saturday, Qantas Airways said it had cancelled all flights to and from Darwin and its budget airline Jetstar had grounded nine international and domestic flights.
Virgin Australia Holdings cancelled all flights into and out of Darwin and all flights into and out of Bali on Saturday evening, spokesman Jacqui Abbott confirmed.
"Our team of meteorologists are continuing to monitor the situation in consultation with the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre," the airline said in a statement.
The regional carrier Airnorth, which flies many oil and gas workers to work in the region, also cancelled five flights on Saturday and a Tiger Airways Ltd domestic flight was also grounded.