Exercising caution is still important
Tropical Weather
An image provided by NASA from the Terra satellite shows Tropical Storm Andrea as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches Florida's west coast on Wednesday June 5, 2013 at 12:25 p.m. EDT. Heavy rain poured across much of Florida on Thursday as the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season headed toward the state.
Posted: Thursday, May 1, 2014 10:33 pm | Updated: 10:40 pm, Thu May 1, 2014.
- Posted on May 1, 2014
Despite forecasts predicting a calmer hurricane season, Louisiana residents need to have a plan for potential storms, said state climatologist and professor Barry Keim. Predictions from Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorological Project show a nearly one in five chance of at least a Category 3 hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast. The TMP predicts nine named storms, three hurricanes, of which one should be at least a Category 3. Historically, these numbers are below average. Since 1981, there has been an average of 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes and two major hurricanes per year. Keim said the reason this hurricane season is projected to be less potent is twofold. First, ocean surface temperatures in the past six months have been increasing, meaning the weather systems are likely moving into what is called an El Niño. The El Niño is a particularly warm area of the Pacific Ocean that creates upper atmosphere airflow in other areas of the world, disrupting storms.
The other reason for the lesser storm season, Keim explained, is because the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), an index of surface ocean temperatures, shows cooler ocean temperatures. Warmer temperature waters are the fuel of storms — more water evaporates, putting more energy into the storm.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita formed during a period of exceptionally warm surface temperatures, Keim said, showing the potential warmer temperatures can cause.
People shouldn’t get too comfortable, as it only takes one hurricane to cause massive devastation. Keim said Hurricane Andrew in 1992, the costliest hurricane for its time, formed under these two conditions.
In addition, long term AMO patterns indicate warmer ocean temperatures for another 10 to 20 years, Keim said. That means a greater likelihood of more, stronger storms.
In the longer term, global climate change models predict the same amount or fewer storms, Keim said. However, the storms that do form will likely
be stronger.
Keim is optimistic about Louisiana’s preparedness for hurricane season, mostly owing to the persisting shock from
Katrina.
“It’s going to take a while to be desensitized from that, I hope it never happens,” he said.
People should prepare for this season just like they would any other hurricane season. Keim suggests making a plan ahead of time for where to evacuate. If you’re going to ride out the storm, get some basic supplies ahead of time.
“You don’t need a bomb shelter,” Keim said.
The other reason for the lesser storm season, Keim explained, is because the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), an index of surface ocean temperatures, shows cooler ocean temperatures. Warmer temperature waters are the fuel of storms — more water evaporates, putting more energy into the storm.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita formed during a period of exceptionally warm surface temperatures, Keim said, showing the potential warmer temperatures can cause.
People shouldn’t get too comfortable, as it only takes one hurricane to cause massive devastation. Keim said Hurricane Andrew in 1992, the costliest hurricane for its time, formed under these two conditions.
In addition, long term AMO patterns indicate warmer ocean temperatures for another 10 to 20 years, Keim said. That means a greater likelihood of more, stronger storms.
In the longer term, global climate change models predict the same amount or fewer storms, Keim said. However, the storms that do form will likely
be stronger.
Keim is optimistic about Louisiana’s preparedness for hurricane season, mostly owing to the persisting shock from
Katrina.
“It’s going to take a while to be desensitized from that, I hope it never happens,” he said.
People should prepare for this season just like they would any other hurricane season. Keim suggests making a plan ahead of time for where to evacuate. If you’re going to ride out the storm, get some basic supplies ahead of time.
“You don’t need a bomb shelter,” Keim said.
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