Atlantic hurricane season in the US forecast to be slower than usual
• Just three to six hurricanes expected this year, says Noaa
• Forecast lower than usual because of developing El Niño
• Forecast lower than usual because of developing El Niño
Email
The coming hurricane season in the US will be slower than usual,
with just three to six expected, the national weather agency said in its
annual forecast on Thursday.
But officials warned repeatedly it takes just one storm to make landfall to cause a major disaster.
The annual forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted eight to 13 named tropical storms, and three to six hurricanes.
One or two of those hurricanes could develop into major hurricanes of category 3 or higher, which carry wind speeds above 111mph.
The forecast, which covers the Atlantic Ocean, theCaribbean
and the Gulf of Mexico, was lower than in typical years, largely
because a developing El Niño. The system tends to damp down hurricane
activity in the Atlantic.
But Noaa's administrator, Kathryn Sullivan, cautioned against complacency even in an El Niño year. “Today is not about percentages and ranges,” she told reporters on a briefing call. “It only takes one destructive storm to make for a very bad season on the ground.”
The Noaa forecast was released from Brooklyn – which suffered huge damage during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Officials repeatedly underscored that hurricane risks extended to storm surge, as well as high winds and rain, and covered the entire Atlantic coastline.
The agency said it will deploy new higher resolution technologies this year that would enable it to predict the trajectory of storms with far greater accuracy seven days out.
Officials said the new system would have enabled forecasters to predict Superstorm Sandy's devastating left hook, seven days before it turned into the New Jersey coast. At the time, forecasters believed the storm would head out to sea.
Noaa will also for the first time use high-resolution imaging tomap and show the height of projected storm surges along the coast.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on 1 June 1 and ends 30 November.
The first named storms of the season will be Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly.
But officials warned repeatedly it takes just one storm to make landfall to cause a major disaster.
The annual forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted eight to 13 named tropical storms, and three to six hurricanes.
One or two of those hurricanes could develop into major hurricanes of category 3 or higher, which carry wind speeds above 111mph.
The forecast, which covers the Atlantic Ocean, the
But Noaa's administrator, Kathryn Sullivan, cautioned against complacency even in an El Niño year. “Today is not about percentages and ranges,” she told reporters on a briefing call. “It only takes one destructive storm to make for a very bad season on the ground.”
The Noaa forecast was released from Brooklyn – which suffered huge damage during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Officials repeatedly underscored that hurricane risks extended to storm surge, as well as high winds and rain, and covered the entire Atlantic coastline.
The agency said it will deploy new higher resolution technologies this year that would enable it to predict the trajectory of storms with far greater accuracy seven days out.
Officials said the new system would have enabled forecasters to predict Superstorm Sandy's devastating left hook, seven days before it turned into the New Jersey coast. At the time, forecasters believed the storm would head out to sea.
Noaa will also for the first time use high-resolution imaging to
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on 1 June 1 and ends 30 November.
The first named storms of the season will be Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly.
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