LONDON – One of the most fertile areas of south east Asia, the Lower Mekong Basin, faces a bleak future from the impacts of climate change, according to a U.S.-funded study.
The lead author of the study, Dr. Jeremy Carew-Reid, says some of its findings are “very shocking.”
Hotter and wetter rainy seasons and more long-lasting dry seasons in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam will jeopardize the region’s reputation as one of the world’s major producers of crops on which hundreds of millions depend. Climate change will also have a profound economic impact in the region.
The fertility of the region around the Mekong will suffer due to a changing climate.Credit: Thomas Schoch
“We’ve found that this region is going to experience climate extremes in temperature and rainfall beyond anything that we expected”, says Dr. Carew-Reid.
The Basin is known for its production of maize and rice, the two grains with the highest worldwide production levels. Rice provides more than a fifth of the calories consumed by humans. The study forecasts fundamental shifts in the kinds of crops that can be grown in parts of the Basin.
The USAID-funded Climate Change Adaptation and Impact Study for the Lower Mekong examines how changes in temperature and precipitation will affect growing conditions and yields for major crops including not only maize and rice but rubber, cassava, soya and coffee, and how fisheries and livestock productivity will be affected.
There’s general international agreement that global average temperatures should if possible be prevented from rising more than 2°C above their pre-industrial level, although most climate scientists believe it’s now too late to stop temperatures rising further.
A global average rise of 2°C is expected to mean that parts of the tropics like the Mekong Basin will warm by between 4°C and 6°C by mid-century. The impacts will vary, but all the Lower Mekong countries are likely to see big changes in the suitability of land for important crops.
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