European Heat wave

European 2003 Summer Temperatures Were Far Outside Normal Range

2003 European Heat Wave: The Hottest Summer in 140 Years (1864-2003). Each vertical line represents the average summer temperature for a single year from the average of four locations in Switzerland over the period 1864 through 2003. This illustrates how far outside the normal range the summer of 2003 was.

Schär et al. 2004

One way in which climate change is connected to individual events such as heat waves and heavy rains is by increasing the odds they will occur. We witness that connection in the form of more frequent extreme events. Analyzing how global warming has changed the odds for a specific event has been done for standout moments such as the European heat wave of 2003 that killed tens of thousands. Based on temperature records from 1864 to 2002, the odds of such a heatwave occurring are about 1 in 10 million.⁴ An event like the 2003 heatwave becomes much more likely after factoring in the observed warming of 2°F over Europe and increased weather variability.⁵ In addition, comparing computer models of climate with and without human contribution shows that human influence has roughly quadrupled the odds of a European summer as hot as or hotter than the summer of 2003.^{6https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6565483752503740244#editor/target=post;postID=1237956798743958554}