Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Can a City be a Tornado Magnet?


 http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/05/oklahoma_tornado_do_certain_cities_attract_tornadoes.html

"Historical data from the National Weather Service suggests that the city of Moore should experience one tornado of size F2 or larger every 2,000 to 5,000 years. In fact, Moore has suffered through six since 1999. The recent run of bad luck may be a statistical quirk, but it’s also possible that the historical data are faulty. Reliable tornado records stretch back only to the 1950s.

Since large tornadoes are a rare event, that’s a pretty small sample size on which to base a prediction. (Researcher Tom Grazulis has attempted to expand the database by reviewing news reports as far back as 1880, but the database still doesn’t compare to the centuries of detailed information we have about earthquakes and other natural disasters.) Our understanding of the relative frequency of tornadoes is likely accurate—Oklahoma does seem to get several times as many large tornadoes as California—but we’re not able to reliably predict how often a major tornado should strike a region."

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