Tropical Storm Hurricane season

ATLANTIC, CARIBBEAN, GULF OF MEXICO

 

In fact, the difference between winds at the jet stream level and those near the surface exceeds 100 mph over much of the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. That will rip apart any thunderstorm cluster that dares to defy the pattern.

We can see signs of Fall's encroachment into the tropics in the sea surface temperature (SST) patterns as well. The cool and dry air behind the recent cold fronts has stripped warmth away from the ocean waters. Though temperatures are still in the 80s in the southern Gulf of Mexico, low to mid 70s are common closer to the north coast. It won't be too long before SSTs across the most of the Gulf will be too cool to support tropical development (the threshold is roughly near 26C [79F], though that theoretically derived result varies somewhat depending on the ambient conditions).

Overall, development is not expected in the next several days. In the next 1-2 weeks, however, there are some pieces of the tropical circulation that will support development over the Caribbean and western Atlantic. But those elements (one of which is MJO) are neither necessary nor sufficient to produce a tropical cyclone. Mother Nature has just too many tricks up her sleeve for us to rely on their limited predictive potential. Nonetheless, we'll keep a close eye on the tropics for the next few weeks ... just in case.