Saturday, November 30, 2013

Winter Storm Will Bring Heavy Rain, Snow To Northwest


While the weather has been tame across the U.S. so far this holiday weekend, low pressure organizing in northwestern British Columbia will swoop southward, bringing heavy rain and mountain snow to the Northwest. Already, moisture is streaming into the Northwest with spits of rain falling from Interstate 5 to the coast.
As upper-level energy rotates into western Canada, low pressure will strengthen and dig southeastward late tonight into Sunday. The Pacific flow will keep the coast and northern Cascades warm enough for rain with the heaviest downpours expected by early Monday. Meanwhile, snow will overspread the Northern Rockies today into tonight.
The low will strengthen even more as it slides north of Seattle on Monday. The counterclockwise flow around the low will send cold, Canadian air rushing in behind it. The rain will change to heavy, wet snow in the northern Cascades where 4 to 8 inches are possible Monday. The rain could even mix with wet snow into downtown Seattle on Monday but no accumulation is expected.
Ahead of the storm, Winter Storm Watches are in effect across the Northern Rockies and northern Washington. While 1 to 2 feet will accumulate in the highest mountain peaks, 2 to 8 inches will stick in the valleys. The snow will slow travel along Interstates 15 and 90. Be sure to carry a winter weather survival kit when traveling in the Northern Rockies later this weekend.
Pacific moisture will ring out heavy rain for the Northwest Coast, including the Olympics and Cascades where temperatures will be above freezing. Four to 7 inches of rain will lead to flooding on rivers, poor drainage and urban locations. If you come across a flooded roadway, it`s best to "Turn Around, Don`t Drown." Water is usually deeper than it appears.
Flood Watches are in effect in western Washington, including Seattle.
The rain will help ease the mounting rainfall deficit in the Northwest. Both Seattle and Portland, Ore., are 4 to 5 inches below average since the start of the fall.
The cold front will swoop into the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies and Northern Plains by early Tuesday spreading a swath of snow from northern California into the Dakotas.
Meanwhile, in the front`s wake, much colder-than-average temperatures will greet the Northwest. In Seattle, for instance, instead of highs in the upper 40s, the mercury will only climb just a degree or two above freezing with overnight lows in the 20s. The cold temperatures at night could cause any standing water to freeze, creating slippery sidewalks, parking lots, and overpasses.

http://weather.weatherbug.com/weather-news/weather-reports.html?zcode=z6286&region=8&region_name=North%20America&country=US&country_name=USA&state_code=IL&state_name=Illinois&zip=60603&city_name=Chicago&stat=CHLSC&story=15492


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Why Hurricane Forecasts Went Bust This Season

http://weather.weatherbug.com/weather-news/weather-reports.html?zcode=z6286&region=8&region_name=North%20America&country=US&country_name=USA&state_code=IL&state_name=Illinois&zip=60603&city_name=Chicago&stat=CHLSC&story=15490

Looking just at hurricanes alone, it`s been the quietest Atlantic season in 75 years.
What`s remarkable about this is that forecasters had predicted a busy season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration went so far as to call it a possibly "hyperactive" season.
Thirteen storms formed, but most were weak systems that stayed far out at sea.
Rather than simply counting storms, probably the best way to measure a season`s overall activity is to sum up the number, strength and duration of its tropical storms and hurricanes, a value known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy. For the 2013 Atlantic season, this value was 31.1, or about 30 percent of normal levels.
Put another way, it was among the five lowest ACE values recorded since 1950.
So what happened?
"A combination of conditions acted to offset several climate patterns that historically have produced active hurricane seasons," explained Gerry Bell, NOAA`s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster. "As a result, we did not see the large numbers of hurricanes that typically accompany these climate patterns."
Temperature, pressure
Perhaps it`s best to step back and look at why a busy season was predicted. It wasn`t to scare people, or to drive up insurance rates. Seasonal forecasters often under-predict hurricane activity as well. As a science, seasonal hurricane prediction is in its infancy.
Prior to the beginning of this season, which started June 1, forecasters were expecting to see higher-than-normal water temperatures and lower-than-normal pressure in the deep tropics, where most tropical systems form. Forecasters also expected water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean would remain in the cool or neutral range through the season.
All of these factors tend to boost hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
And during this season all of these things happened. And yet, there were no big storms.
Atmospheric moisture
"It turns out that there is an additional parameter that was not generally considered when making seasonal predictions," said Chris Hebert, a hurricane forecaster with ImpactWeather, a company based in Houston.
Hebert said earlier this year, after it became obvious that the Atlantic activity would be well below normal, he searched for other factors at play and discovered that moisture levels in the midlevel of the atmosphere, about 18,000 to 25,000 feet above the surface, were well below normal.
Storms often weaken or die after ingesting dry air.
In their post-season analysis, Colorado State University hurricane scientists William Gray and Phil Klotzbach wrote: "It seems like this dry air was one of the critical reasons why the season was very quiet."
It seems like a good bet that next year`s seasonal forecasts will attempt to incorporate the likelihood of such dry air into their calculations.
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Copyright Houston Chronicle 2013
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Another Person Dies From Midwest Tornado Outbreak



Nov. 29--A seventh person has died from the tornadoes that slammed into Illinois earlier this month.
Rosamund Allison, 82, was pronounced dead at 11:15 p.m. Thursday at OSF Saint Francis Medical Center in Peoria, where she was taken after being found buried in debris in the town of Washington on Nov. 17, according to the Peoria County coroner.
Allison was swept up by a tornado while at her home on Elgin Avenue, the coroner said. She suffered multiple injuries, the office said.


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Thursday, November 28, 2013

Black Friday Weather

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cold-air-to-greet-black-friday/20424663

After a cold Thanksgiving in Chicago, those venturing out for Black Friday shopping won't catch much of a reprieve.
Temperatures will climb into the mid-30s Friday with partly sunny skies. The low will drop into the upper 20s.
Those planning to wait outdoors for the best deals should dress appropriately for winter conditions. Extended periods in the cold can result in hypothermia.

Despite cloudy skies, Saturday will be the warmest remaining day of the week as the mercury pushes into the low 40s.
The weather will continue to cooperate through the end of the weekend, as travelers make the trek home. The precipitation that snarled travel plans for many Wednesday will be long gone, making for smoother travel Sunday, the second busiest travel day of the year.
Times of clouds and sun will punctuate the day, as highs push into the upper 30s.
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Iran Earthquake Strikes Near Nuclear Power Plant

http://www.weather.com/news/iran-earthquake-nuclear-power-plant-20131128

TEHRAN, Iran -- An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 5.6 struck a town Thursday in southern Iran, killing seven people while causing no damage at the country's only nuclear power plant, state television reported.
The U.S. Geological Survey said the temblor struck some 8.7 miles northeast of Borazjan. It hit some 38 miles north of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, which is near the port city of the same name.

The website for state television carried a statement from the plant's operators saying it sustained no damage in the quake.
Bushehr province Gov. Fereidoun Hasanvand told state television that 45 people were injured.
Many people fled their homes during the earthquake, fearful the buildings would crash down on them, local media reported. Those living in neighboring provinces also felt the quake.
In April, a 6.1-magnitude earthquake killed at least 37 people and injured hundreds in a town near Bushehr. The nuclear plant wasn't damaged then.

Iran is located in a zone of tectonic compression where the Arabian plate is moving into the Eurasian plate, leaving more than 90 percent of the country crisscrossed by seismic fault lines.
Nine quakes that hit Iran in the last decades were more than magnitude 6, including a 2003 temblor that killed at least 26,000 people in the city of Bam. Scientists say more fault lines likely will be discovered in the country and more major quakes are only a matter of time.

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Weather walloping East Coast




Damaging winds gusting up to 60 mph were expected to rip through Boston and other coastal areas. Those winds could prevent the giant balloons from taking flight this year at the Macy’s parade. Safety rules that specify wind speeds were enacted in New York after a spectator was killed in 1997 in an accident involving an out-of-control balloon.
Flight cancellations piled up at East Coast hubs. Flightstats.com is reporting as many as 628 flights cancelled and almost 6,000 delays at about 8:45 p.m. Wednesday evening. But that was a fraction of the nearly 32,000 flights that were scheduled to, from or within the U.S. on Wednesday. And the weather in many places was improving as the day wore on. Most of the cancellations involved Newark, N.J., Philadelphia and New York’s LaGuardia Airport.
The storm system, which developed in the West, has been blamed for at least 11 deaths, half of them in Texas. It limped across Arkansas with a smattering of snow, sleet and freezing rain that didn’t meet expectations.
 
 
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/stormy-weather-creates-thanksgiving-travel-nightmare-article-1.1530790

A NOAA satellite image taken on Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2013, at 1:45 a.m. shows an intensifying storm system producing strong to severe thunderstorms throughout the Southeast, with widespread clouds and rain found over much of the Northeast as well.
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Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Typhoon Wreck killed thousands of people

As Typhoon Haiyan tore across the eastern Philippines, coconut plantations older than the fathers of the men who tend them were smashed like matchsticks and call centers that field customer service gripes from around the world fell silent. The storm that killed thousands also wrecked livelihoods in the worst hit region, a blow that will ripple long after the disaster fades from attention.
The workload of call and data centers that are soaked in water and choked with debris has easily been diverted to other Philippine cities. Less simple is the choice faced by thousands of workers: uproot and separate from family or stay in Leyte province and wait perhaps a year
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Tropical Storm Melissa arrived in Nov

Amazing Hurricane Images: Isabel - 2003 (NASA)
Tropical Storm Melissa was the thirteenth named storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
On Monday, Nov. 18, 2013, Melissa began as a "subtropical storm," a sort of hybrid between a tropical and mid-latitude storm system. Over time, it developed a tighter core of convection (thunderstorms) close to its center, which led to Melissa's transition into a fully tropical storm on Wednesday Nov. 20, despite being centered north of 35 degrees North latitude—about the same latitude as Charlotte, N.C.
On Thursday, Nov. 21, Melissa became a post-tropical low. Although it was never a serious threat to land, Melissa did cause some gusty winds over the Azores.
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Typhoon wrecked Tacloban city

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/filipinos-escape-typhoon-wasteland-20131125Romnick Abadines' heart pounded as a Philippine air force C-130 carried him above typhoon-wrecked Tacloban city. He had never been on a plane before, never watched silvery-white clouds pass from a small round window. It was not the first time, or the last, that he felt helpless and out of his element.
The frail, 31-year-old farmer lost his shanty to Typhoon Haiyan, which flattened much of Tacloban in Leyte province as it killed more than 5,200 people. Now he lays idle in a tent shelter in suburban Manila, where he has no known relatives and little chance of finding more than menial and temporary work.
More than 12,000 people displaced by the massive Nov. 8 have made it to the capital. Most are with relatives; those with no family here are in shelters. Many have no idea how or where to rebuild their lives.
(MORE: Typhoon Haiyan Photos)
"What will happen to us when this kindness ends?" asked Maribel Villajos, a 37-year-old mother of three children who sat listlessly with her husband on cots surrounded by bags of newly donated clothes, potato chips and instant coffee sachets at the same shelter where Abadines and his family were taken.

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Investigating Typhoon Haiyan

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Villajos' husband is a carpenter, but his tools were swept away along with their house in the tsunami-like storm surge that swept far into Tacloban and ruined much of the densely-populated coastal city.
Thousands of people from areas wrecked by Haiyan clambered aboard free C-130 mercy flights to Manila without any plan, in a desperate bid to escape the hunger, uncertainties and lingering stench of death back home. Others arrived here by bus, or fled to central Cebu province, which like the capital is regarded by rural poor Filipinos as a greener pasture in this impoverished Southeast Asian nation of more than 96 million people.
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