Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Winter Storm Cleon: Next Phase to Bring Major Ice Storm to Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas; Snow From Plains to Ohio Valley

Winter Storm Cleon, the third named winter storm of the 2013-14 season, has already dumped a swath of locally heavy snow from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest. In both of those regions, some locations have received over 2 feet of snow.
Now, Cleon is poised to deliver its next wintry punch – a significant snow and ice storm that will stretch from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley as we close out the workweek. First, let's mop up the last bits of Cleon's impacts on the Rockies and Midwest.

Snow Forecast: Rockies & Upper Midwest

Background

Rockies, Upper Midwest Radar

Background

Rain and Snow Forecast

Rain and Snow Forecast
Background

Rain and Snow Forecast

Rain and Snow Forecast
In the Rockies, snow will sag south into southern Colorado and New Mexico Wednesday night,becoming more scattered and diminishing in intensity with time.
As the next phase of Cleon organizes Thursday,there may be a temporary uptick in snowfall over the mountains of central New Mexico, especially on the eastern slopes with some upslope flow. Snowfall amounts should be manageable.
Winter driving conditions can be expected along I-25 in Colorado and northern New Mexico as well asI-40 over Tijeras Canyon through the mountains east of Albuquerque.
Meanwhile, in the Upper Midwest, snow will continue Wednesday night from eastern North Dakota across northern Minnesota into far northern parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. However, it will be shrinking in coverage and intensity later at night as this portion of the storm lifts north, bringing snow to an end from south to north. Snow will end across this region on Thursday with little additional accumulation after sunrise in most areas.
Bitterly cold wind chills will be invading most of the Upper Midwest as blustery winds and even colder temperatures set in.
The additional snowfall in northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin will bring storm totals there into the 15 to 30 inch range in some areas, including the snow that's already fallen.
(FORECASTS: Grand Forks, N.D. | Duluth, Minn.)

Significant Ice Storm: Southern Plains to Ohio Valley

Background

Southern Plains Radar

Southern Plains Radar
Background

Thursday's Forecast

Thursday's Forecast
Background

Friday's Forecast

Friday's Forecast
Background

Cleon Travel Impact

Cleon Travel Impact
Background

Power Outage Potential

Power Outage Potential
Cleon's next chapter begins Thursday as precipitation breaks out along the leading edge of the arctic air across the Southern Plains.
Precipitation is expected to expand from West Texas across parts of Oklahoma and into the Ozarks on Thursday. With surface temperatures below freezing and relatively warm air a few thousand feet above the ground, much of this will come down as an icy mixture of freezing rain and sleet. Rain will rapidly expand across the Ohio Valley during the day as well, but the cold air will not have arrived there yet.
By Thursday night, precipitation becomes heavier in parts of the Southern Plains, leading to a threat of significant icing in north Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and parts of western and northern Arkansas. North of those areas, a transition to snow can be expected along much of the I-44 corridor in Oklahoma and Missouri. East of the Mississippi, some of the rain will start changing over to freezing rain along the northern fringe of the precipitation over the Ohio Valley.
Friday, as the heavier precipitation swings east and the subfreezing air oozes to the southeast, freezing rain may cause icy conditions to expand into southern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, west Tennessee, and into a long narrow corridor over or near the Ohio River. Some areas north of the Ohio River will change over to snow as colder air builds in from the north. A little bit of snow or wintry mixed precip will reach western Pennsylvania and parts of western and central New York, with widespread rain farther east.
For Oklahoma and north and central Texas, precipitation will taper off and end during the day Friday, but cold air will remain firmly entrenched. This will allow the potential of more wintry precipitation Saturday in parts of Texas as the next storm system quickly develops behind Cleon.
(FORECASTS: Oklahoma City | Dallas | Little Rock | Memphis | Cincinnati)
As shown in the inset maps, the Thursday-Friday phase of Cleon will bring the potential for severe disruptions to travel and electric power.
One saving grace is that it has been warm lately in the south-central states; parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area reached the 80s Wednesday and Little Rock, Ark., was well into the 70s. As a result, the ground is warm, and roads that sit on the soil may take a long time to become cold enough for ice to accumulate. On the other hand, roads that are not on the ground – we're talking bridges and overpasses – will turn cold much more quickly, and could turn into skating rinks rather quickly on Thursday night with the lack of sunlight and the widespread rain falling in areas with air temperatures below freezing.
Tree branches and power lines will cool off much more quickly than the soil, and heavy ice accumulations could bring down limbs and power lines across a swath of Arkansas and adjacent states. This could potentially lead to widespread power outages that could take days to repair. You should prepare for the potential for prolonged power outages if you are in the darker shaded areas on our power outage map.
After Cleon, another storm system may bring yet more snow, sleet and freezing rain from parts of the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley, Middle Atlantic and Northeast this weekend into Monday. This could become The Weather Channel's next named storm, which would be Dion. For a preview, check out the forecast map links below

No comments:

Post a Comment