El Nino Patters Coule Become Twice as Likely in a Warming World

"El Niño refers to a pattern of unusually warm water stretching across the surface of eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs every 3-7 years. That warm water influences climate patterns around the world, increasing the likelihood of wet and cool weather in the Southeast, heavy rain in California, warm and dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest, and host of other global impacts."

The strongest El Nino recorded happened during 1997-98. It caused widespread devastation. The damages were at an estimated $35-45 billion and around 23,000 deaths worldwide. The model above shows the sea surface temperatures leading up to this massive storm. 

“Under greenhouse warming the eastern equatorial Pacific warms faster than the surrounding regions . . . making it easier to have maximum SST (sea surface temperatures) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and hence more occurrences of extreme El Nino events,”