Forecast for 2014: El Nino - and grain famine
By Ruth Schuster | Jun. 18, 2014 | 12:50 AM
Brace for it, world and Israel: Scientists are forecasting that another El Nino weather system will apparently develop this summer, leading to even more extreme weather events. The system might wait for winter in the northern hemisphere, the scientists add, but arrive it almost certainly will – and if it’s a bad one, it could lead to catastrophic crop failure.
“Here in Israel, we concluded from studying previous years that anything can happen, from drought to torrential rainfall,” says Bruins, noting that while El Nino is a repetitive phenomenon, its strength and duration can’t be foretold. “The literature refers to weak, moderate and strong El Nino. A strong one can be highly unpleasant, causing things like devastating drought in Australia and Indonesia, and sometimes also in the United States. El Nino can even dry out India, weakening the monsoons,” says Bruins.
And that can have a trickle-down problem caused by what the professor views as a mistake by leading economists that could wind up costing many lives.
The problem is that the United States and Australia now supply most of the grain to the world. ”Some 105 countries depend on importing grain. We’re among them,” says Bruins. “Israel has to buy 90% of our grain from the world market. If El Nino hits hard, in India or China, and their crops diminish badly, it will be impossible for the U.S. and Australia, which will have droughts of their own, to supply the world with enough grain.”
India and China would buy up the world market and that would be that, he explains.
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