Tornado season across the U.S. is off to an extraordinarily slow start with just
73 tornadoes so far this year compared to an average of 256 (year-to-date)
in recent years. But the atmosphere across the Mid-South and Ozark
region is primed to potentially narrow the gap this afternoon and
evening.
The National Weather Service (NWS) says over 52 million
Americans are under an elevated risk of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening – spanning a broad region from east Texas
northeastward into central Ohio.
Areas under elevated risk of severe thunderstorm in yellow (slight) and red (moderate). (National Weather Service)
The
zone of greatest risk of severe storms covers much of Arkansas,
southern Missouri, and the western part of the Tennessee Valley,
including Little Rock, Springfield (Mo.), and Memphis. Damaging
straight-line winds and large hail are major threats in this area
(assigned a 45 percent chance within 25 miles of a point), which is
already blanketed by
tornado watches through 5 p.m. CDT.
“Tornadoes
–some strong with EF2 or worse damage– are … possible with the greatest
risk of occurrence across central and southern Missouri southward
through most of Arkansas,” says the NWS Storm Prediction Center in its
public severe weather outlook.
The storms are forming ahead of a strong early spring cold front carving through the middle of the nation.
Satellite view of storm system cutting across central U.S. (NASA)
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