Things To Know About This Week's Weather

Quiet and mild weather conditions have dominated the weather for much of the U.S. so far in November, but there are some changes ahead. Much of the country can expect dry conditions to persist in the week ahead, but rain is expected in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The trend of above-average temperatures will also continue, but it will not be quite as warm as this past week.
Below we take a closer look at the four things you need to know about the weather as we move toward mid-November.

1. Wet Weather in Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley

Rain is expected for early week in the southern Plains due to an upper-level area of low pressure. Surface high pressure centered over the East will allow a southerly flow to develop over the southern Plains, bringing moisture into the region.

Locally heavy rain is a possibility, especially Sunday and Monday in central and eastern Texas, as well as into Oklahoma and far-western Louisiana. Thunderstorms are also likely, but widespread severe thunderstorms are not anticipated.
Drought conditions have been spreading across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma since the end of September, so this rainfall will likely be beneficial for those areas.

There is some uncertainty as the week progresses as to the timing and how far east the chances of rain will reach.

2. Not Much Drought Relief in Southeast, Northeast

Unfortunately, there does not seem to be much rain in the East over the coming week as high pressure will continue to influence conditions across the region.

A couple of upper-level disturbances may move through the Northeast mid-to-late week, bringing a few light rain and snow showers. However, widespread precipitation appears unlikely, which is not good news for the drought in the region.

The Southeast will also see mostly dry conditions, at least through early week. Some showers could approach southern Mississippi and southern Alabama as early as Tuesday morning. Mid-to-late week, the chance of rain increases slightly as the system that will bring rain to the southern Plains may push eastward enough to bring a few showers to portions of the Southeast.
However, given differences in the forecast models and the fact that it is several days away there is a good deal of uncertainty regarding how much, if any, rainfall makes it into the region. The drought in the region continues to worsen so any change in the dry pattern will be very welcome. Make sure to check back with weather.com for forecast updates.

3. The Warmer Than Average Trend Continues

Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average next week from the northern Plains and intermountain West into the Midwest and Southeast. The Northeast, southern Plains and the West Coast will experience temperatures near to slightly above average. However, there are some indications that by next weekend temperatures may begin to trend cooler in portions of the East.

These above-average temperatures are due to an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. There may be a few daily record highs through the week but we are not expecting widespread records like this past week, as it will not be as warm.

Highs will climb into the 60s for much of the Plains and Midwest, with 70s toward the Ohio Valley and 50s in the Upper Midwest. Farther east, the mid-Atlantic will enjoy highs in the 60s with 70s in the South.
Low temperatures will also be warmer than typically expected heading into mid-November, especially in parts of the Rockies, northern Plains and Midwest. Temperatures will only drop into the 40s for much of the Midwest and into the mid-Atlantic and portions of the Southeast. If you are looking for lows below the freezing mark you will need to go toward northern New England and the higher elevations of the inter-mountain West.

4. Unsettled in Pacific Northwest

A moist southwesterly flow will be in place across the Pacific Northwest this week. This will allow wet conditions to impact the region at times during the week.

Precipitation is expected to be generally light across most of the region and will mainly be confined to the west coast of Washington and northwestern Oregon. The best chance for moderate to heavy rainfall will be on the Olympic Peninsula and in far northern Washington. However, there is a chance that some of the rain and showers may push farther east midweek. Another system may bring a more widespread chance of rain late in the week.