May Kicks Off With Snow and Cold

Surface temperature anomalies from April 1-23, 2013. Colder than average temperatures are indicated by blue/purple shadings. Greatest cold anomalies indicated by blue box. (Image credit: NOAA/CPC)

This spring has been especially frustrating for those itching to leave Ol' Man Winter behind.

First, March was the coldest in 11 years for the Lower 48 States.  In some locations, March was actually colder than January!

Then the first roughly three weeks of April were frustratingly cold in the nation's heartland, particularly in the northern Plains.

Several coldest/latest records were set from the "Nation's Icebox" (Int'l Falls, Minn.) to the Deep South.  Not to mention a parade of late-season snowstorms from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/may-cold-ahead-20130426

Dangerous Wildfire Season Predicted for California

Californians can expect a dangerous summer wildfire season due to a dry winter that has left the normally green hills of spring parched and tinder-dry, authorities warned.

State fire crews have responded to more than 680 wildfires since the beginning of the year — some 200 more than average for the period. They included several 300- and 400-acre blazes around the state.

Local fire crews also have been busy. Last weekend, a fire in the foothills above Monrovia, northeast of Los Angeles, prompted the evacuation of about 200 homes. A wind-whipped, 170-acre wildfire earlier this month burned two houses and threatened 160 others in rural Ventura County before.

Last week, the state Department of Forestry and Fire Protection increased staffing in Southern California and moved air tankers to bases in preparation for what promises to be one of the driest years on record, according to a statement released Wednesday.

http://www.weather.com/news/drought/dangerous-wildfire-season-calif-20130426

Has the Drought Improved?

As of late April 2013, drought has been wiped out of the Ohio and mid-Mississippi Valleys, Alabama and most of Georgia. Drought improvement has also been noted in parts of the Plains and Rockies.

In early February, 2013, 'exceptional' drought, the worst category, reached its maximum coverage, including parts of 10 states from Georgia to Wyoming.

On September 25, 2012, the drought reached its peak areal coverage. Just over 65% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought.

http://www.weather.com/news/drought/drought-improvement-midwest-20130425

Tornado Drought 2013?

You've probably heard about the widespread drought still in place over the nation's mid-section.

What about a drought most people love?  With April coming to an end, it may be safe to say the U.S. is in a short-term tornado drought.

According to Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes, only 67 tornadoes have touched down in the U.S. so far this April, according to preliminary data through April 28.  

Over the past 10 years (2003-2012), the April average through April 28 is 203 tornadoes.  If the month ended already, it would be the quietest April, tornado-wise, since 1992, according to Dr. Forbes.

Contrast that with the record-setting April 2011, when an incredible 758 tornadoes recorded, including the massive "Superoutbreak" from April 25-28.  That's over 11 times the number of April 2013 tornadoes!

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornado-drought-20130424

Severe Weather Outbreak This Week

Despite an overall relatively quiet weather pattern, there have been some severe thunderstorms over the past ten days.

Destructive hail pelted parts of Texas, including the cities of Hitchcock, Freer, Benavides, and Alice.

There have even been a couple of tornadoes, including a particularly photogenic "stovepipe" tornado filmed on April Fool's Day near Silverton, Texas.

However, there have been no widespread severe weather outbreaks since a series of damaging hailstorms in the South on March 18.  And we've just come off the least active March for U.S. tornadoes since at least 1978.

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-outbreak-south-20130404

2013 Hurricane Season Outlook

The Weather Channel has released its first 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, calling for another active season.

The forecast calls for a total of 16 named storms, 9 of which are expected to become hurricanes, including 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). 

These forecast numbers are above the long-term average from 1950-2012 (12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) and slightly above the averages for the current active era from 1995-2012 (15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes).

Three straight Atlantic hurricane seasons have had 19 storms.  Only seven Atlantic seasons have had more hurricanes than last season's 10 hurricanes.  Among the four U.S. landfalls were the most intense tropical cyclone to make a U.S. landfall prior to June 1 (Tropical Storm Beryl), a soaking Tropical Storm Debby, a painfully slow Hurricane Isaac, and one of the most destructive storms in U.S. history, Superstorm Sandy. (Sandy became a "post-tropical" system shortly before landfall.)

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-season-outlook-april-20130408

Winter Storm Walda

Needless to say, it's been a long, snowy winter for many Americans.

Recent weeks have brought signs of spring to parts of the northern and central Rockies with highs in the 70s as far north as Montana. That taste of spring is about to come to a crashing halt as Winter Storm Walda brings heavy snow, very high winds, and a drastic drop in temperatures as the new workweek begins.

This same sharp southward dip in the jet stream, lumbering slowly east, looks poised to tap deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and pull it north and westward.  We have a classic spring storm set to pivot out of the West into the Plains.  We've already addressed the likelihood for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms this week with this bullish dip in the jet stream.

The combination of higher elevation, strong lift in the atmosphere, and near-surface temperatures just cold enough is expected to churn out accumulating snow, heavy in spots.  

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-walda-20130407

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Tragic Crashes in Fog

Easter Sunday's deadly series of car crashes involving 95 vehicles on Interstate 77 in Virginiawas another reminder that while fog is peaceful for those not on the move, it can be deadly for drivers.

Often these accidents involve motorists driving too fast for conditions and following other vehicles too closely. Sometimes, rapid changes in visibility can trigger major accidents as visibility drops from good to almost zero in a short distance.

As you'll see on the next few pages, serious car crashes triggered by dense fog are not limited to the United States, nor are they a new phenomenon.

And unfortunately, other forms of transportation are not immune to fog-related tragedies either. Whether traveling by road, rail, sea or air, some of the worst accidents in the history of modern transportation have involved thick fog.

http://www.weather.com/safety/fog-crashes-pileups-20130402

March 2013 Tornado Stats

The persistent, stubborn March cold in the Plains, South and East has had at least one benefit.  

March 2013 was one of the least tornadic Marches in the U.S. in decades.

In preliminary data through March 31, only 17 tornadoes have been tallied across the nation in March 2013, according to Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.   

If this preliminary total holds up, this would be the lowest March U.S. tornado count in 35 years, since only 17 tornadoes were counted in March 1978.  The last March with a lower U.S. tornado tally was 1969, with only 8 U.S. tornadoes. 

March 2012 couldn't have been more different, nearly doubling the monthly average with 154 tornadoes, punctuated by the Mar. 2-3 outbreak, heavily damaging the towns of W. Liberty, Ky. and Henryville, Ind., among others.

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/march-tornadoes-fewest-20130330

April Tornado Risk

While tornadoes can be spawned any time of year the volatile mix of ingredients exists, climatologically speaking, April is a dangerous month for tornadoes in parts of the U.S.

Over the past 10 years, April comes in only behind May for average U.S. tornado counts.  That average is admittedly skewed by April 2011, in which 758 U.S. tornadoes set a record for any month.

In particular, a swath from the central and southern Plains east into the Tennessee Valley is most susceptible to swarms of tornadoes in the first full month of spring, denoted by the white-shaded area in the map at right above.

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornado-threat-april-20130403

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Major Spring Flood Risk

As the expansive heartland drought stretches into 2013, a critical spring awaits.

Repeated bouts of rain and/or snow are urgently needed over the next few months to replenish both surface soil and groundwater supplies before summer's stifling heat sets in.  

However, there's one part of the Plains drought that may be praying for a dry spring.  These folks know the drill this time of year all too well recently.  Welcome to the paradox that is the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota in 2013.

In their latest spring flood outlook, the National Weather Service (NWS) in Grand Forks, N.D. said there is a "high risk (greater than 50% chance) for major flooding on the Red River at Fargo, N.D., and for moderate flooding at Grand Forks, N.D." 

Another Bad Wildfire Year

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. -- Despite the slowest start to a wildfire season in a decade, the head of the U.S. Forest Service said Tuesday his agency is preparing for another busy year, but with fewer firefighters.

Late winter storms have helped bring more snow and rain to some parts of the country, but Chief Tom Tidwell told The Associated Press in a telephone interview that much of the South and Southwest are expected to dry out by May and June as drought conditions persist.

That will give way to a season much like last year, when more than 14,500 square miles - an area bigger than the state of Maryland - were charred. A dozen lives were also lost last year and more than 2,200 homes and businesses were destroyed.

The predicted hot spots for wildfires this year? Tidwell pointed to Florida, Arizona, New Mexico and Southern California.

Big Snow for Central US

Winter Storm Q is turning its emphasis on the Rockies, Plains and Midwest over the next couple of days.

As the upper-level dip in the jet stream, or trough, swings into the Four Corners of theRockiesWednesday, snow will taper off in the mountains of California.

Snow will also intensify and spread east in the Plains and Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. By that point, conditions will become favorable for a zone of freezing rain and sleet from Oklahoma and Kansas to the Ohio Valley and parts of the East.

Climate Contradiction: Less Snow, More Blizzards

WASHINGTON – With scant snowfall and barren ski slopes in parts of the Midwest and Northeast the past couple of years, some scientists have pointed to global warming as the culprit.

Then, when a whopper of a blizzard smacked the Northeast with more than 2 feet of snow in some places earlier this month, some of the same people again blamed global warming.

How can that be? It's been a joke among skeptics, pointing to what seems to be a brazen contradiction.

But the answer lies in atmospheric physics. A warmer atmosphere can hold, and dump, more moisture, snow experts say. And two soon-to-be-published studies demonstrate how there can be more giant blizzards yet less snow overall each year. Projections are that that's likely to continue with manmade global warming.

http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/climate-less-snow-more-blizzards-20130219