Showing posts with label Alexis Powell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alexis Powell. Show all posts

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Weather Gone Wild

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2012/09/extreme-weather/miller-text


Rains that are almost biblical, heat waves that don’t end, tornadoes that strike in savage swarms—there’s been a change in the weather lately. What’s going on?

By Peter Miller
Photograph by Sean R. Heavey, Barcroft Media/Landov
The weekend forecast for Nashville, Tennessee, called for two to four inches of rain. But by the afternoon of Saturday, May 1, 2010, parts of the city had seen more than six inches, and the rain was still coming down in sheets.
Mayor Karl Dean was in the city’s Emergency Communications Center monitoring the first reports of flash flooding when something on a TV screen caught his eye. It was a live shot of cars and trucks on Interstate 24 being swamped by a tributary of the Cumberland River southeast of the city. Floating past them in the slow lane was a 40-foot-long portable building from the Lighthouse Christian School.
“We’ve got a building running into cars,” the TV anchorman was saying.
Dean had been in the “war room” for hours. But when he saw the building floating down the highway, he says, “it became very clear to me what an extreme situation we had on our hands.” Soon 911 calls were coming in from every part of the city. Police, fire, and rescue teams were dispatched in boats. One crew in a skiff headed out to I-24 to pluck the driver of an 18-wheeler from the chest-high water. Other teams pulled families off rooftops and workers from flooded warehouses. Still, 11 people died in the city that weekend.
This was a new kind of storm for Nashville. “It came down harder than I’ve ever seen it rain here,” says Brad Paisley, the country singer, who owns a farm outside town. “You know how when you’re in a mall and it’s coming down in sheets, and you think, I’ll give it five minutes, and when it lets up I’ll run to my car? Well, imagine that it didn’t let up until the next day.”
Over at NewsChannel 5, the local CBS station, meteorologist Charlie Neese could see where the weather was coming from. The jet stream had gotten stuck over the city, and one thunderstorm after another was sucking up warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, rumbling hundreds of miles northeast, and dumping the water on Nashville. While Neese and his colleagues were broadcasting from a second-floor studio, the first-floor newsroom was being swamped by backed-up sewers. “Water was shooting up through the toilets,” Neese says.
The Cumberland River, which winds through the heart of Nashville, started rising Saturday morning. At Ingram Barge Company, David Edgin, a former towboat captain, had more than seven boats and 70 barges out on the waterway. As the rain continued to pound down, he called the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to get its forecast of how high the river would rise. “It’s blowing up our models,” the duty officer said. “We’ve never seen anything like this.” Edgin ordered all of Ingram’s boats to tie up at safe locations along the riverbank. It turned out to be a smart move.
By Saturday night the Cumberland had risen at least 15 feet, to 35 feet, and the corps was predicting it would crest at 42. But the rain didn’t stop Sunday, and the river didn’t crest until Monday—at 52 feet, 12 feet above flood stage. Spilling into downtown streets, the flood caused some two billion dollars in damage.
When the sun came out on Monday morning, parts of Nashville had seen more than 13 inches of rain—about twice the previous record of 6.6 inches set during Hurricane Frederic in 1979. Pete Fisher, manager of the Grand Ole Opry, needed a canoe to get into the famous theater, which is on the riverfront northeast of the city. He and audio engineer Tommy Hensley paddled across a parking lot and through a side door. “We basically just floated into the theater,” Fisher says. “It was pitch black, and we shined a light on the stage. If you’d been sitting in the front row, you’d have had seven feet of water over your head.”
In warehouses along the river, the flood had submerged millions of dollars’ worth of equipment, including components for a 36-by-60-foot video screen that had been assembled for Brad Paisley’s upcoming concert tour, which was set to begin in less than three weeks. “Every amp, every guitar I’m used to, was destroyed,” Paisley says. “I felt powerless in a way I’ve never felt before with weather.”
The experience changed him. “Here in Nashville our weather is manageable, normally,” he says. “But since that flood, I’ve never once taken normalcy for granted.”



Photo: Thunderstorm near Glasgow, Montana

Scientists to reveal full extent of Arctic ice loss amid climate change fears

Why is the sea ice in the Arctic melting?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/05/climate-change-scientists-arctic-ice-loss


The full extent of the extreme loss of Arctic ice cover is due to be revealed on Wednesday when a premier US science agency delivers its annual report on the polar region.
The report, overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), provides the most comprehensive review so far of a year of record-breaking and extreme weather events in the Arctic.
Some scientists have warned the changes in the Arctic recorded this year – particularly signs of thawing permafrost – could bring the planet much closer to a climate tipping point than previously anticipated.
"Climate change is taking place before our eyes, and will continue to do so as a result of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which have risen constantly and again reached new records," the World Meteorological Organisation's secretary general, Michael Jarraud, said.
Nowhere has that been more apparent this year than the Arctic, according to scientists.
Noaa's administrator, Jane Lubchenco, and other scientists were due to deliver their own assessment at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco on Wednesday afternoon.
The scientists will outline the record loss of summer sea ice – which reached its lowest value on the satellite records of 26 August 2012, the decline in spring snow extent, rising temperatures in the permafrost in northern Alaska, and the dramatic melting of the surface of the Greenland ice sheet, according to the AGU website.
Some of those findings have already been made public, reinforcing the already extensive evidence – in real time – of climate change.
New satellite and aerial data presented to the AGU week earlier this week suggested that the entire Greenland ice sheet was losing about 22 gigatons of ice a year, with rapid thinning in the northern edge of the ice sheet.
The entire ice sheet experienced rapid melting over a four day period last July, in an event that stunned and alarmed scientists.
The melting ice in Greenland has added to global sea-level rise over the last two decades. Future melting is also expected to add to rising seas.
The UN's weather agency, the World Meteorological Organisation, told negotiators trying to reach a global climate agreement in Doha, that an area of Arctic sea ice bigger than the entire United States melted this year.
Meanwhile, the United Nations Environmental Programme released a report warning scientists may have been underestimating the melting of the Arctic. Large-scale thawing of the permafrost, the frozen soil that traps vast amounts of carbon, may already be underway, releasing more of the gases that cause climate change.
This year is predicted to be one of the warmest on record, with global land and ocean temperatures in the first 10 months of 2012 about .45 degrees celsius above the average recorded even in the mid-20th century.

New Zealand tornado: freak storm hits Auckland suburb

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/06/new-zealand-tornado-deaths-auckland

People clear tornado debris in Hobsonville, Auckland, New Zealand


A tornado has swept through neighborhoods around New Zealand's largest city, killing three people and forcing 250 more to evacuate their homes.
The small tornado hit Hobsonville and Whenuapai, western suburbs of Auckland, during a midday storm that uprooted trees, damaged buildings and caused flooding that closed roads.
Authorities said that as well as those who died, seven people suffering a range of injuries were admitted to hospitals.
Auckland council spokesman Glyn Walters said the storm made about 150 homes uninhabitable. He said some of those homes had roofs torn off or were severely damaged while others had more minor damage or had lost power. He said 250 residents were taken to an air force base at Whenuapai, where council staff and welfare workers were assisting them.
The worst weather appeared to have passed by mid-afternoon, Walters said. "It's clearing up slightly but people need to be careful out there," he said.
Auckland fire service area commander Larry Cocker said at least three people had died in the storm. One was hit by a tree and some others who were killed or injured were workers building a school.
Several media outlets reported that two of those who died were in an accident involving a slab of concrete falling on a truck.

World's nations face 'climate cliff' at Doha's COP 18 summit

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/dec/06/world-nations-climate-cliff-doha-cop18

Doha


The 18th UN climate change summit is taking place in the small, but immensely wealthy Gulf emirate of Qatar, the largest per capita emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. Delegates, press, dignitaries and the legions of low-paid, foreign guest workers at the opulent Qatar National Convention Center all pass under an enormous spider, a 30ft-high cast bronze statue called "Maman", by the French-American sculptor Louise Bourgeois.
It was chosen by the emir's wife, and snapped up for a reported $10m. The Obama administration has been accused, rightly, of derailing the UN climate negotiations in recent years, which makes the spider an appropriate symbol, as famously described by the lines from an 1808 poem by Sir Walter Scott:
"Oh! what a tangled web we weave
When first we practice to deceive!"
Here at the summit, referred to as the COP 18 (18th Conference of Parties), I met up with climate scientist Bill Hare, one of the lead authors of a new World Bank report, "Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4ÂșC Warmer World Must Be Avoided". With the US media focused on the so-called fiscal cliff, I asked Hare how the world's historically largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the United States, could be expected to contribute to a global fund to combat climate change:
"We have a climate cliff … We're facing a carbon tsunami, actually, where huge amounts of carbon are now being emitted at a faster rate than ever. And it's that carbon tsunami that's likely to overwhelm the planet with warming, sea-level rise and acidifying the oceans."

Typhoon Bopha: Hurricane Sandy Times Two

http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/typhoon-bopha-hurricane-sandy-times-two/?ref=weather


A photograph released by NASA of Typhoon Bopha heading toward the Philippines on Sunday, taken from the International Space Station by the American astronaut Kevin Ford.A photograph released by NASA of Typhoon Bopha heading toward the Philippines on Sunday, taken from the International Space Station by the American astronaut Kevin Ford.
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HONG KONG — The official death toll from Typhoon Bopha climbed to 325 by Thursday afternoon, and with nearly 400 Filipinos still unaccounted for, the typhoon appeared as if it would be twice as deadly as Hurricane Sandy, the storm that thrashed the Caribbean and the eastern United States six weeks ago.
Sandy killed at least 253 people, including 132 in the United States. President Obama is expected to ask Congress this week for about $50 billion to help states in their post-Sandy recovery efforts.
Typhoon Bopha, known as Pablo in the Philippines, arrived on Tuesday, packing winds up to 100 miles per hour. It washed away entire villages and hamlets; wiped out roads and bridges; flattened cornfields and banana plantations; wrecked fishing fleets; and buried homes under landslides and walls of mud.
In some towns, dead bodies were gathered together in rows, their faces covered by tarpaulins, sodden blankets or palm fronds.
“Bodies of victims were laid on the ground for viewing by people searching for missing relatives,” The Associated Press reported. “Some were badly mangled after being dragged by raging floodwaters over rocks and other debris. A man sprayed insecticide on the remains to keep away swarms of flies.”
In one village, the mud-caked body of a child lay under a sheet with a note attached. It read: “4 yrs. old, male.”
One survivor, Julius Julian Rebucas, told Reuters that his mother and brother had been swept away in a flash flood. “I no longer have a family,” he said.
He can be seen being carried to an ambulance in a BBC video here.
Bopha struck most heavily in the southern Philippines, which typically dodges the 20 or so typhoons that slam the country every year. My colleague Floyd Whaley spoke to a military official who said most of the fatalities were in the province of Compostela Valley, a mountainous gold mining area, and the adjoining province of Davao Oriental.
The Philippine news site Rappler had a live blog going, tracking the progress of the storm and giving government information on deaths, damage and where people could donate food or supplies.
The national weather agency of the Philippines was sending regular updates on its Twitter feed here. Its Web site is located here.
Twitter also assembled the addresses of accounts offering information on relief efforts, and the service recommended using the hashtag #pabloPH for storm-related tweets and searches.
A New York Times slide show of the storm’s aftermath is here.
When floods hit Manila in the summer, a quarter-million people in the capital were made homeless. But as we reported on Rendezvous, “on social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter, and through text messages, Filipinos demonstrated a remarkable civic spirit as they shared news of evacuation centers and dropoff points for donations of emergency supplies.

A New Tweak for Global Warming Predictions

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/a-new-tweak-for-global-warming-predictions/?ref=weather


Correction Appended
To bypass the challenges of predicting how clouds will change, scientists used relative humidity as a stand-in of sorts.Josh Haner/The New York TimesTo bypass the challenges of predicting how clouds will change, scientists used relative humidity as a stand-in of sorts.
Green: Science
While scientists express confidence that the earth will continue to warm in response to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, fine-tuning those projections has been a challenge. The majority of estimates fall between a rise of 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit), which leaves quite a wide range of uncertainty.
While the numbers may seem relatively trivial to the layman, they represent a vast range of potential impacts on society in terms of sea-level rise, heat waves and extreme weather.
A new paper in Friday’s issue of the journal Science adds to that discussion, suggesting that future warming may fall on the high side of climate projections.
“There’s been a lot of uncertainty and quite a range of this quantity called climate sensitivity in the climate models,” said one of the authors, Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist in the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. “If you take our results at face value, it certainly indicates that the climate change will be at the higher side of what’s been put forth previously, and that’s not good news.”

To arrive at that conclusion, Dr. Trenberth and his co-author, John Fasullo, set out to assess which of 16 leading climate models most accurately portrayed the earth’s current climate, especially in regard to clouds.
Clouds significantly influence the earth’s temperature, but predicting how those ever-shifting masses will change is notoriously difficult.
To get around that challenge, the researchers focused on the relationship between relative humidity — a measure of moisture in the atmosphere — and clouds. A strong, observable relationship exists between the two: when relative humidity is high, condensation occurs and clouds form. Models, or computer projections of future climate trends, can indirectly represent clouds by taking into account relative humidity measurements, which are readily available and bypass much of the complexity that bogs down cloud dynamics.
The authors compared how well the current climate models that they reproduced observed satellite data of relative humidity in the tropics and subtropics, where monsoon seasons result in annual cycles of cloudy and clear skies. The models that best represented the real-world monsoon processes, they found, tended to be those situated on the higher end of the projections of warming.
This result suggests that relative humidity is a necessary metric for models to perform accurately, Dr. Trenberth said, but not a sufficient criterion in itself for predicting the degree of future change.
Like a grading system, researchers could use this new finding to assess how closely existing models reflect reality. “The results we found do not guarantee that the more sensitive models are correct,” he said. “But we now know that those less sensitive models are certainly not correct.”

Really? Cold Weather Raises the Risk of Heart Attack

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/12/really-cold-weather-raises-the-risk-of-heart-attack/?ref=weather



Looking at the medical literature, it is easy to see that winter can be a dicey season for heart patients.
Really?
REALLY?
Anahad O’Connor tackles health myths.
Many studies, some going back decades, have documented climbing heart attack rates during the winter. Some refer to the phenomenon as the Christmas coronary. To what extent winter raises the risk is a matter of debate. But one large study, using data on hundreds of thousands of heart attacks documented in the National Registry of Myocardial Infarction, found that 53 percent more cases were reported in winter than in summer. A pattern of decreasing occurrence of cases from winter to fall to spring and then summer was found across gender, age and geographic area.
The primary culprit, many believe, is temperature. Cold weather narrows arteries and raises blood pressure, stressing the heart. Physical strain and ruptured plaques caused by shoveling snow are also commonly cited.
But in a recent study presented at an American Heart Association conference, two researchers, Dr. Bryan Schwartz and Dr. Robert Kloner, found that the risk increases even in warm climates. Analyzing death certificates in seven regions with different climates — Los Angeles, Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and others — they found that cardiovascular deaths rose up to 36 percent between summer and winter, regardless of climate and temperatures.
Dr. Schwartz, a clinical cardiovascular fellow at the University of New Mexico, said a number of things may be involved, including the spread of influenza and other respiratory infections. Seasonal affective disorder stemming from fewer daylight hours, as well as less healthy eating and exercise habits around the winter holidays, may also play a role.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Heart attack rates climb in the winter, though cold weather may be just one of several reasons.

Hypothermia and Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Cases Soar in City After Hurricane

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/nyregion/hypothermia-and-carbon-monoxide-poisoning-cases-soar-in-new-york-after-hurricane-sandy.html?ref=weather




The number of cold-exposure cases in New York City tripled in the weeks after Hurricane Sandy struck compared with the same period in previous years, the health department reported in an alert to thousands of doctors and other health care providers on Wednesday.

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And even though power and heat have been restored to most of the city, there are still thousands of people living in the cold, the department said.
The department warned health care providers that residents living in unheated homes faced “a significant risk of serious illness and death from multiple causes.”
The number of cases of carbon monoxide exposure, which can be fatal, was more than 10 times as high as expected the week of the storm and 6 times as high the next week, reflected in greater numbers of emergency department visits. Calls to the city’s poison center also increased, health officials said.
And as temperatures dip, health officials said the cold could lead to other health problems, including a worsening of heart and lung diseases and an increase in anxiety and depression.
“My bigger concern is what happens in the future as we get closer to winter in the next four weeks,” Dr. Thomas A. Farley, the city’s health commissioner, said in an interview. “There are probably about 12,000 people living in unheated apartments right now.”
Between Nov. 3 and 21, more than three times as many people visited emergency rooms for cold exposure as appeared during the same time periods from 2008 to 2011, the health department said. The storm hit on Oct. 29.
It took days before many elderly and disabled residents, trapped in cold, dark apartments without working elevators or phones, were visited by emergency responders and health workers. Some went to emergency rooms.
Dr. Farley said prolonged exposure to cold even slightly below room temperature could be deadly, and he urged residents of unheated apartments to consider relocating. He said they could find help by calling 311.
The alert said residents in cold apartments should wear layers of dry, loosefitting clothing. They should not use ovens or portable gas heaters because of the risks of fire and carbon monoxide.

Winter Forecast: Cold Winter More Likely For Some

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/Winter-Forecast-Cold-Winter-More-Likely-For-Some_2012-11-29



"After an extended spell of above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. during the past 18 months, the last few months have been characterized by below-normal temperatures across much of the eastern U.S., as a weak El Nino event has tried to emerge," said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist at WSI, part of The Weather Company.
"While this El Nino event now appears to be a dud, most of our more skillful climate indicators suggest that very cold air will be in plentiful supply across western and central Canada this winter, with frequent border crossings into the northern U.S.," Crawford added. "Currently, we do not expect the kind of frequent atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic that would result in more extreme and more widespread cold in the eastern U.S.  However, trends in some of the long-lead indicators suggest that this assumption may be challenged, and that the risk to the forecast in the eastern U.S. is towards the colder side."
Stu Ostro, senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel (Twitter | Facebook), notes that atmospheric blocking has been a major player in recent winters.
"That phenomenon of atmospheric 'blocking' by strong ridges of high pressure over Greenland and thereabouts is a key factor for winter weather downstream in the northeast United States, and it has been of overwhelming importance the past three winters," Ostro said.
"There was extreme blocking in 2009-10 and 2010-11, with arctic air and snowstorms repeatedly tackling the Northeast urban corridor. Then last winter, there was an equally extreme lack of Greenland blocking, in turn with relatively little cold air and snow in that and other parts of the U.S.
"Now, in autumn 2012, we've been seeing a tendency for a return of strong ridges over eastern Canada and Greenland.  That pattern is what forced Sandy to take the track it did, and was favorable for 'Athena' the following week and this week's systems bringing more coastal flooding to the Outer Banks.  We'll be watching very closely to see the extent to which this trend continues."
December Winter Forecast
The winter forecast for December calls for the coldest temperatures, relative to normal, to stretch from Seattle to Duluth, Minn. Unseasonably warm weather is expected from Phoenix to Houston.

January Outlook
The winter forecast for January calls for below-normal temperatures across the North, from Portland, Ore., to Portland, Maine. Unseasonably mild weather should prevail from Las Vegas and Denver to Dallas-Fort Worth.