An Improved Classification And Explanation For El Nino (New Research)

A new study seems to provide a better way to categorize El Nino climate events, and offers an explanation for how different kinds of El Nino events emerge.

El Nino is part of a large scale, very important climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, generally referred to as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Over time (years) wind and water currents move heat into the upper levels of the Equatorial Pacific (La Nina). Then, over time (months) the heat comes back out – that is an El Nino. The effects can be dramatic. During El Nino years, trade winds and monsoons may behave differently than normal. How much precipitation falls and where it falls can change over large regions. Deserts become lakes, good croplands are drought stricken, sea levels change across large portions of the coast.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/20/an-improved-classification-and-explanation-for-el-nino-new-research/

Climate Science As A Second Front for Biology Teachers

The American Biology Teacher has hosted a guest editorial by Glenn Branch and Minda Berbeco of the NCSE. The editorial points out that climate science is under a similar sort of anti-science attack as evolution has been for years, though generally with different (less religious) motivations. Also noted is the problem of fitting climate change into the curriculum, especially in biology classes. Indeed, biology teachers are already having a hard time getting the standard fare on the plate. In recent years, for example, the AP biology curriculum has jettisoned almost everything about plants, which were previously used as examples of physiology owing to both their relevance and the relative ease of using plants in biology labs. Branch and Berbeco note that climate change has not made its way that far into the biology classrooms, but there are already anti-science efforts to keep it out.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/20/climate-science-as-a-second-front-for-biology-teachers/

How To Demolish Climate Denial

John Cook, of the University of Queensland, and his colleagues, have created a MOOC … Massive Open Online Course … called “Making Sense of Climate Science Denial.”

Why does this matter? How does it work? What can you do?

All of these questions are answered here: University offering free online course to demolish climate denial.

Fight sticky myths with even sticker sticklier facts.

Do go check it out. See you in class!

Source: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/21/how-to-demolish-climate-denial/

Comparing models and empirical estimates of noise in the climate system

There is a new paper out, Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise, by Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero & Steven A. Mauget. It is potentially important for two reasons. One is because of what it says about how to interpret the available data on global warming caused by human generated greenhouse gas pollution. The other is because of the way in which the results are being interpreted, willfully or through misunderstanding, by climate science contrarians.

I will have a more detailed post on this in a few days, after I’ve gotten responses back from Patrick Brown, lead author, to a number of questions. For now I wanted to make a few preliminary remarks.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/24/comparing-models-and-empirical-estimates-of-noise-in-the-climate-system/

Link Between Yellowstone And The Magma Plume Found, Imaged

It is like finding a leak in your roof. I remember once up at the cabin, noticing that my waders were full of water and pointing this out to my wife.

“You’re supposed to hang the waders upside down. Keeps dead mice from falling in there.”

Well, I thought, if any mice fell in these waders and weren’t dead, they’d drown for sure. Anyway, I traced the leak to a part of the ceiling in the closet. Eventually I was able to find the place in the attic where the water was probably going down into the closet, but by this time the torrential rain storms that had preceded the discovery of Lake Waders had long passed and I was going on indirect evidence. Over the next few weeks there were more storms, and every now and then I got to look at where the leak was tracing from but always lost track of it.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/24/yellowstone-deep-magma-chamber-found/

AGW Class Cyclone Pam Nearing Vanuatu

Pam is a tropical cyclone of category 5 strength, but is churning over waters that have high temperatures at depth, a phenomenon we seem to be seeing more often lately, as a result of anthropogenic global warming. That is why I call it “AGW Class.” Strong Category 5, deep heat enhanced. It is said that this is one of only 10 Category 5 storms recorded in the basin since good data are available. The Weather Underground has the story.

In addition, there are three other tropical cyclones extant in the Pacific.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/03/12/agw-class-cyclone-pam-nearing-vanuatu/

Drought in California and Climate Change: They are linked

A paper just out now in PNAS by Noah Diffenbaugh, Daniel Swain, and Danielle Touma shows that “Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California.” From the abstract:

… We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/03/23/drought-in-california-and-climate-change-they-are-linked/ 

UPDATE Chance Typhoon Neoguri Will Hit Nuke Plant Increases?

Update:

The new forecast track of Neoguri is shown above as well as the location of two nuclear power plants.

The forecast track has moved south, and is now in a very good (and here good means bad) position to strike the Sendai nuclear power plant very directly. Keep in mind that this forecast may change.

On Tuesday mid day UTC the storm will likely be in the later phases of a turn to the right, aiming roughly at the Sendai plant. At this point maximum wind speed near the center of the storm will likely be about 90 mph, which puts the storm in the middle of the Category One range. That evening, possibly near midnight, the center of the typhoon should be coming ashore. During this time the storm will weaken.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/07/07/will-a-super-typhoon-hit-a-japanese-nuclear-power-plant/

Is the California Drought Caused By Climate Change, Or By Californians?

Possibly both.

Climate change certainly has a huge effect. Increased evaporation, decreased snowpack, the stalling of air masses that cause more drying and less wetting, which in turn is caused by changes in the jet stream, which in turn is caused by “Arctic Amplification,” an effect of global warming, are major causes of a three year drought coming hard on the heels of a decade of near-drought dry.

But also, Californian approaches to water management have been an issue. I recently learned that there are communities in California that don’t even have water meters on people’s houses. What the heck? A while back the state asked people to use less water. They didn’t. Just now, the California Water Board implemented a fine for overuse of water, and local communities are asking people to turn in their neighbors who do so.

Full post here:http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/07/17/is-the-california-drought-caused-by-climate-change-or-by-californians/

Typhoon Rammasun

There is a major typhoon (hurricane) in the Western Pacific, Rammusan, which has already caused flooding and damage in the Phillipenes, where it killed 12 people, heading for southern China, and expected to affect northern Vietnam later on. From Accuweather:

Warm ocean waters combined with light wind shear will allow the storm to remain well organized through Friday as it approaches Hainan Island. Rammasun will likely bring widespread winds of 100 mph to northern Hainan Island on Friday afternoon and Friday night with higher gusts. Widespread wind damage is expected across northern Hainan, as well as the Leizhou Peninsula to the north.

Jeff Masters has a detailed analysis here.

Source: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/07/17/typhoon-rammasun/

California is clearly exceptional, but not in a good way: #Drought

The US Drought Monitor produces an assessment of drought conditions every week. The drought in California has taken a large jump over the last few days, with the highest category, “Exceptional,” jumping from 36.49% to 58.41%. At the start of the calendar year, that category was represented in California by 0%, so this is a continuation of an ongoing trend. The image above is the current map from US Drought Monitor.

I made a couple of other graphics that demonstrate the problem.

This is the percent area in California covered by severe to exceptional drought since the most recent time that this percentage was at zero, near the end of 2011.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/07/31/california-is-clearly-exceptional-but-not-in-a-good-way-drought/

Climate Change Increases Frequency and Intensity of Wildfires

I don’t like the messaging Holdren almost always seems to start with: “While we can’t attribute a single bla bla bla to climate change” (it is not the right way to phrase what is happening, this is a good video just out:

Source with video here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/08/06/climate-change-increases-frequency-and-intensity-of-wildfires/

More Research Linking Global Warming To Bad Weather Events

A new paper advances our understanding of the link between anthropogenic global warming and the apparent uptick in severe weather events we’ve been experiencing. Let’s have a look at the phenomenon and the new research.

Climate Change: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly.

It is mostly bad. Sometimes it is ugly. I was looking at crop reports from the USDA and noticed an interesting phenomenon in Minnesota, that is repeated across much of the US this year: Fewer acres are in crops but among those acres that are planted there is a high expected per-acre yield. The higher yield will make up for the lost acreage this year. Unfortunately, that is about as good as it gets.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/08/07/arctic-emergency-scientists-speak/

Climate Peril: The Intelligent Reader’s Guide to Understanding the Climate Crisis.

According to John Berger, author of the newly released book Climate Peril: The Intelligent Reader’s Guide to Understanding the Climate Crisis, time is running out. The climate is changing in ways that will bring unwanted results, and we as a species are slow off the mark to do something about it.

Climate Peril: The Intelligent Reader’s Guide to Understanding the Climate Crisis begins with a description of the global climate in the not too distant future, 2100. It is of course a guess, perhaps fiction. But Berger’s description of the world in 2100 is plausible, and much of it probable. We don’t know, of course which parts are more vs. less likely. Killer heat waves are common. Forest are dying. Wildfires are frequent and abnormally large. Natural habitats, all of them, are being destroyed by changing conditions, causing widespread species extinctions. Serious diseases well ensconced in the tropics have spread widely. Island nations and low lying continental regions are being flooded, or are already destroyed by rising seas. And more.

Full post here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/09/08/climate-peril-the-intelligent-readers-guide-to-understanding-the-climate-crisis/

What will this winter be like in North America?

Odile was the strongest hurricane to strike the Baja Peninsula during the period of available data, roughly similar to Hurrican Olivia (1967). The storm reached Category 4 strength but was then weakened because of interaction with the effects of a prior hurricane in the area (Norbert). At the moment, Odile is a tropical storm and still in the Baja. There was flooding, and two fatalities, including a lightning strike and a nine year old boy taken by floodwaters. Several building in Acapulco were damaged. There has been a lot of damage and disruption in the Baja region.

Tropical Storm Polo is currently south of Mexico and is expected to stay away from the coast, and it is not clear that it will reach Hurricane strength. If so, only for a brief time.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/09/16/odile-polo-and-the-eastern-pacific-hurricane-season-2014/

Explaining Extreme Events of 2013: Limitations of the BAMS Report

The American Meteorological Society, in it’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), has released a report called “Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective.” Three studies looked at excessive heat in Australia, three at drought or dry conditions in California, and 14 looked at various other extreme events (though some of those events may overlap or be related) for a total of about 15 different phenomena.

There was a pattern in the results. The studies looking at heat all suggested a link to anthropogenic global warming (AGW). This is not surprising because AGW has involved a global increase in average temperature which is manifest across a variable climate, so even a modest increase in global temperature, bunched up in to places that are a bit cooler or warmer than average (at a given moment in time) is going to be blatantly obvious when picking out heat events. Some of the studies that looked at the California drought and drought in New Zealand attributed these conditions to climate change, others were more ambiguous or suggested that there was no link. All of the studies that looked at extreme precipitation events concluded that there was no way to make a connection, except one (in Northern India) which as ambiguous.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/10/03/explaining-extreme-events-of-2013-limitations-of-the-bams-report/

Keep an eye on Hurricane Gonzalo (Updated)

Atlantic Hurricane Gonzalo is a Major Hurricane, Category 3 at the moment, and it is heading towards Bermuda. The storm will weaken a little bit before getting there but it will still be major. This is a significant event. It is possible that a storm surge of about 10 feet could occur there. Gonzales will be very near Bermuda in by Friday Evening, and past it by Saturday morning.

Interestingly, Gonzalo is expected to remain a hurricane strength storm (though it may be called a “post-tropical cyclone” it will still have sustained winds at hurricane level) as it passes the Canadian Maritimes. It will be interesting to see how much of its hurricane shape it maintains as this happens. Gonzalo will still be a pretty nasty storm when, in several days it arrives in the general vicinity if Ireland and Great Britain.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/10/16/keep-an-eye-on-hurricane-gonzalo/

The Eye of the Storm, And The Storm

Hurricane vs. Eye of Hurricane

The eye of a hurricane and a hurricane are not the same thing. The eye is smaller. The hurricane is bigger.

There has not been much hurricane activity in the Atlantic for a while now, so unsurprisingly the reporting is starting to slip again. This post goes out to all you reporters at CNN and Reuters and Yahoo and everywhere else. Imma give you an example of what you are doing wrong, then I’ll send you to a place to learn up on it.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/10/17/the-eye-of-the-storm-and-the-storm/

The Polar Vortex Is Dead. But that does not mean it isn’t cold out

The term “Polar Vortex” was thrown around a lot last year, in reference to the persistent mass of very cold air that enveloped much of southern Canada and the US. As you will remember, Rush Limbaugh accused climate scientists and librul meteorologists of making up the polar vortex to scare everyone into thinking climate change is real. You may also remember Al Roker pointing out on national TV and on Twitter that the term “polar vortex” has been in meteorology textbooks for decades.

This year, with a new wave of cold air arriving unseasonably in the upper middle part of the US, the term is being used again. I was amused to see the term being used on accuweather such that it was placed on each of several graphics used to show that this year’s cold snap is not actually the polar vortex, unlike last year.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/11/17/the-polar-vortex-is-dead-but-that-does-not-mean-it-isnt-cold-out/

How scientists unraveled the El Niño mystery

The Road to Paris is a web site created by the ICSU, “…a non-governmental organization representing a global membership that includes both national scientific bodies (121 National Members representing 141 countries) and International Scientific Unions (30 Members),” founded in 1931. If the ICSU had not existed when the UN was formed, the UN would have formed it. Think of the ICSU as the UN of Science. More or less.

Read more here: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/12/04/how-scientists-unraveled-the-el-nino-mystery/