First EF3 Tornado of 2014 Confirmed After Long, Slow Start to U.S. Tornado Season

Tornadoes by the Numbers

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A destructive tornado in North Carolina Friday ended an unusual delay in stronger tornado activity in 2014, cementing a new record for a lack of stronger tornadoes-to-date in 2014.

(MORE: Tornadoes, Severe Storms Strike North Carolina, Virginia)

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On Saturday, officials at the National Weather Service in Morehead City, North Carolina, announced that one of Friday's tornadoes in eastern North Carolina rated an EF3 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.

The April 25 tornado marked the latest wait by far for the first such tornado in any year in modern records dating to 1950, according to theUniversity of Alabama-Huntsville.

March 31, 2002 was the previous record latest date of the season's first F3 or EF3 tornado. The Enhanced-Fujita scale replaced the original Fujita Scale on Feb. 1, 2007.

Older, likely incomplete historical records compiled by tornado historian Tom Grazulis in the bookSignificant Tornadoes 1680-1991 indicate that the last year whose first F3 tornado came later was 99 years ago, when the first F3 of 1915 (rated retroactively by Grazulis) came on May 1.

The last U.S. tornado of EF3 intensity or stronger had been during the Nov. 17, 2013 outbreak in the Midwest, making it a a stretch of five months and eight days between EF3 tornadoes in the U.S.

According to statistics compiled by severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (Twitter | Facebook), the period from January through March averaged between eight and nine tornadoes of F/EF3+ intensity in the period 1950-2012.

While we have had several episodes of severe thunderstorms in 2014, we've been fortunate enough to avoid the volatile combination of low-level wind shear (rapidly changing wind direction and speed with height) and strong instability (very warm and humid air near the surface topped by cold, dry air aloft) known to spawn large, destructive tornado outbreaks. 

As you can see in the pie chart below, while stronger tornadoes (EF3+) are more rare, they make up a large majority of tornado fatalities each year. 

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Average monthly U.S. tornado count from 1984-2013. Note the sharp increase from March into April.

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April and May lead with 10-11 F/EF3+ tornadoes each month, on average, according to Dr. Forbes. 

Keep in mind while current tornado counts in 2014 are roughly 72 percent below the average-to-date through April 25, destructive outbreaks do occur in years with fewer overall tornado counts. 

Both 2012 and 2013 featured at least 400 fewer U.S. tornadoes than the 10-year average. Despite fewer tornadoes, destructive twisters still occurred:

• Mar. 2-3, 2012: EF4 in Henryville, Ind.; EF3 in West Liberty, Ky.
• May 15, 2013: EF4 in Granbury, Texas
• May 19-20, 2013: EF5 in Moore, Okla.
• May 31, 2013: EF3 in El Reno, Okla.
• Nov, 17, 2013: EF4 in Washington, Ill. 

New Jersey Forest Fire Contained in Berkeley Township; 620 Homes Evacuated

Wind and Dry Conditions Fuel NJ Fires

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High winds pushed a New Jersey forest fire out of control Thursday, forcing a school to close and 620 homes to evacuate.

The fire started just before noon in Beachwood, according to the Asbury Park Press, and then quickly spread into Berkeley Township. Authorities said there were no injuries in the blaze.

The fire burned more than half a square mile of land, but was completely contained by late Thursday, according to Berkeley Township police. Although some homes were damaged, firefighters say none were destroyed. The Associated Press reported some residents were being allowed back into their homes by evening.

(MORE: Wildfire Safety | Fire Weather Watches & Warnings)

The region is under fire weather watches and warnings. According to weather.com meteorologist Chrissy Warrilow, temperatures were in the 60s Thursday, with low humidity and wind gusts up to 30 mph feeding the flames.

Another fire, also in Berkeley Township, engulfed about a quarter of a square mile. It was only 80 percent contained by early Friday, according to Greg McLaughlin, division warden with the state Forest Fire Service.

In Franklin Township, he said a fire was still raging across more than a square mile, but none of the residents of about 60 nearby houses had been evacuated.

"April is fire month in New Jersey, and the conditions today were appropriate for a fast spreading wildfire," McLaughlin said.

Toms River Intermediate South school closed early as a precaution, and students were taken to Pine Belt Arena in Toms River. The district said they were sent home on their normal bus routes. The school was later used as a command post for officials coordinating firefighting efforts.

(MORE: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Through the Weekend)

Dozens of firefighters battled the blaze on the ground, supplemented by three bulldozers building walls to stop the spread of flames and several helicopters and firefighting planes dropped water on the fire.

McLaughlin said two sheds, a boat trailer and a house burned in the Toms River fire.

At the same time, firefighters battled the second day of a forest fire in Downe Township in Cumberland County, at the far southern end of the state.

That fire, in the Bevans Wildlife Management Area, was 50 percent contained by late in the day, and firefighters were hopeful it wouldn't spread any further. No homes or other buildings were in the immediate area of the fire, which had burned nearly 2 1/2 square miles.

McLaughlin said there also were small fires in the New Jersey communities of Whiting and Jackson.

Rotating Supercells Resemble a 'Mothership'

reslin Published: Apr 26, 2014, 8:43 PM EDT weather.com

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A supercell thunderstorm looms east of Leedey, Okla., on April 22, 2013. (Photo courtesy of Roger Hill)

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They look like an alien invasion, but rotating supercells happen far more often than a visit from E.T.

The photos above are examples of what happens when forces of weather combine to produce an incredibly photogenic sight -- known simply as the "mothership" cloud.

Captured by storm chasers and weather-gawkers, these approaching storms were already ominous. However, with the rise of photo-enhancement apps like Instagram, which allow amateurs to make images appear professionally edited, rotating supercells look more like alien spacecraft than ever.

(MORE: A Cloud of Dust is Heading Our Way)

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Caught on Cam: Beach vanishes in clouds

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The Science Behind Supercells

From Nick Wiltgen, weather.com meteorologist in an April 2013 article:

"A supercell thunderstorm is characterized by a sustained and powerful rotating updraft. These storms originate in unstable air accompanied by a particular type of changing wind direction at various altitudes in the atmosphere; a common combination supportive of supercells is a southerly or southeasterly wind near ground level and a southwesterly or westerly wind higher up in the atmosphere.

This combination of changing wind directions creates a horizontal rolling motion in the lower atmosphere. The same rapidly rising air motions that form the thunderstorm turn this horizontal rotation into a vertical rotation, and in the case of this particular storm, this rotation is spectacularly evident in the circular striations, or layers, visible in the cloud structure.

The structure of supercell thunderstorms allows rain and hail to fall well away from the source of the warm, unstable air fueling the storm, so these storms do not choke on their own rain-cooled air. In some cases this allows supercell thunderstorms to stay intact for hours, covering tens or even hundreds of miles. In the process they can produce giant hail, very high winds, and tornadoes."

No Tornado Deaths: 2014 Has Longest Fatality-Free Start in 99 Years

Latest Dates of First Tornado Death

Even as we push deeper into the heart of spring tornado season, 2014 has so far completely spared Americans the agony and grief of tornado-related deaths. The year's long early safe streak has put 2014 in rare territory, historically.

The modern era of tornado records began in 1950 with the advent of the storm database maintained by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This year has now gone on longer than any other calendar year in that era without a tornado fatality.

The previous record belonged to 2002, when the year's first killer tornado struck April 21 -- an F3 that killed a man in a mobile home in a rural area of Wayne County, Illinois.

Another recent year's long quiet streak ended rather violently. Sunday, April 20 marked the 10th anniversary of 2004's first killer tornado, also an F3 in Illinois. Eight people died on April 20, 2004 when a twister smashed into Utica, Ill., causing a tavern to collapse. The twister was part of an outbreak of 30 tornadoes notable because human and computer forecasts made only hours earlier indicated the atmosphere would not be unstable enough for tornadic activity.

(MORE: WeatherReady Tornado Safety Tips)

History in the Making?

When compiling historical tornado lists, one way to compare records is to look at four different eras, reflecting the evolution of tornado documentation as described in tornado historian Tom Grazulis' compendium, Significant Tornadoes 1680-1991:

• The modern era, 1950-present. In his book, Grazulis notes that "serious efforts" to document all tornadoes began in 1953, which was the first full year of tornado watches issued by the U.S. Weather Bureau, now the National Weather Service. The bureau began collecting thorough data in an attempt to determine how well the watches were verifying (i.e., how many watches contained tornadoes).
• Since the "middle period"; 1916-present. Grazulis points out that the government began keeping an official count of tornadoes in 1916, but the effort was not evenly executed in every state.
• Since the "early period"; 1880-present. The efforts of John Park Finley, considered America's first tornado climatologist and first forecaster of severe thunderstorms, resulted in a great advance in the collection of tornado reports beginning in 1880. Grazulis notes, however, that the historical record from 1880-1915 is likely incomplete owing to a relative lack of small-town newspapers in what was then the predominantly poor and rural South, as compared to a more robust newspaper and storm reporting network in the Plains.
• Since the end of the Civil War; 1866-present. Very few tornadoes were reported or recorded in the chaos of the Civil War, so attempting to craft a list any farther back in time than 1866 is futile.

Even including what are likely incomplete historical records from the mid 19th to early 20th centuries, 2014 already ranks among the top 10 years with the longest fatality-free start. It's likely that some of those older years in the record had undocumented tornado deaths, which would move 2014 even higher in the rankings if we had perfect knowledge of what happened back then.

With no tornado deaths reported through Saturday, April 26, we now have to go back 99 years to find a calendar year when the first documented tornado death came later in the year – that was 1915, when the first recorded death came on May 5.

(One caveat – given the number of injuries in Friday's tornadoes in North Carolina, one can't rule out a tornado-related death eventually being reported from those storms.)

Why Has This Year Been Relatively Safe?

Part of the reason for this year's good fortune is the lack of strong tornadoes. It is likely not a coincidence that there were no EF3 or stronger tornadoes on the Enhanced Fujita Scale in 2014 until one hit North Carolina on April 25, and that's also a record-long wait in the modern era since 1950. Tornadoes in the higher Fujita categories do a disproportionate amount of all damage and cause a large majority of all tornado deaths, historically speaking.

(MORE: Longest Wait For an EF3 in Modern Times)

It is likely also true that modern technology -- with powerful Doppler radar systems and instant communication -- have helped to keep this year's relatively weaker tornadoes from turning deadly.

While we are in impressive company when looking at calendar years – resetting the count at January 1, so to speak -- we are nowhere near the longest streak of consecutive days without a killer tornado.

That record was just broken in 2012-13, when a string of 219 consecutive days passed without a killer tornado. That streak ended with the Adairsville, Ga., tornado on Jan. 30, 2013. Like the other streak-ending twisters mentioned above, it rated a 3 -- in this case, an EF3.

Currently, the most recent killer tornado is an EF2 that killed one person on Dec. 21, 2013, in Coahoma County, Miss. That means there have been 126 consecutive days without a tornado death through and including April 26, 2014 -- 93 days shy of the modern record.

Texas Drought Forces Wichita Falls Residents to Take Desperate Measures to Keep Water Flowing

The Case of the Vanishing Lake

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It's hard to image a city of 105,000 running out of water, but that's the reality in Wichita Falls, Texas. A crippling four-year drought has taken this community to a place they've never been before.

"It's been awful here. We're entering our worst drought on record," said Russell Schreiber, the city's public works director, and the force behind one of the most controversial plans in Texas: The use of treated wastewater for public consumption. It's a bold move — and a tough sell.

Tim McMillin, a radio host and father in Wichita Falls, is one of the many residents who doesn't like the idea of drinking treated wastewater.

"Just the concept of drinking the water that yesterday you sent along its merry way ... I don't think anybody wants that."

(MORE: Antarctica Was Once as Warm as ...)

McMillin worries about his kids' safety when this new plan is instituted. "I have no way to test it myself," he said.

He won't have to just yet. The Texas Water Commission is reviewing more than 8,000 pages of data to ensure Wichita Falls' new state-of-the-art treatment facility is working.

“A local non-denominational group meets in the dry lake bed to pray for rain.”

David Gonzales, reporter

It's capable of treating 5 million gallons of water a day, and has the full support of Mayor Glenn Barham.

"That water will be safe," Barham said. "I'll be the first to take a drink when they turn it on."

Here's how it works. Four stages of high-tech filters remove all solid material from the water. The final stage is a process called reverse osmosis, which strips nearly everything out of the water but the basic hydrogen and oxygen molecules.

Treated water alone can't save this community. This is the driest three-year period in recorded history. It started with a brutal summer heat wave in 2011, when Wichita Falls endured more than 100 days of temperatures above 100 degrees and saw a mere 13 inches of rain. 

Drought restrictions are  in place, prohibiting all outdoor water usage. City officials will begin issuing fines up to $2,000 for people who turn on the hose, wash their cars or fill their pools.

Redefined Through Adversity

According to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, there are now 12 water districts in the state of Texas with only 45 days of water remaining. Faced with the threat of running dry, Wichita Falls responded in Texas-sized fashion. City water usage is down more than 45 percent, saving enough water to fill 50 Olympic-sized swimming pools each day.

Teressa Rose is a wife, mother of two and a determined engineer. She and her husband have installed rain barrels around their home to collect water for their trees. She's also using biodegradable paper plates at dinner and taking advantage of a citywide composting plan.

"Water is now just as valuable to us as oil or gold," said Rose. "It's that important."

Her efforts have resulted in a 75 percent reduction in water usage around the house.

(MORE: Oklahoma Homes Hit With a 'Solar Tax?')

Public drought awareness is at an all-time high. KFDX-TV news reporter David Gonzales says it's all people talk and pray about.

"A local non-denominational group meets in the dry lake bed to pray for rain," he said.

One local radio station is using the airwaves to raise awareness. Host Keith Vaughn plays a rain-related classic rock song every hour during his show on 104.7 The Bear.

"It can be anything with rain or water in the lyrics," he said.

He checks a master list of tracks just above his microphone as "When Will It Rain?" by Jackyl plays for his listeners.

Vaughn is also cutting back on his water usage. "Sometimes I'll accidentally leave the tap on while I'm brushing my teeth and say, 'Hey, wait a second, I can't do that.'"

Severe Weather Forecast: Outbreak of Severe Storms and Tornadoes Expected Through Tuesday

An outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is expected to begin Sunday and continue into the new week ahead as a potent storm system slowly pushes east across the nation.

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(MORE: Live Updates on the Outbreak)

Locations from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and parts of the South could see severe storms and tornadoes on one or multiple days. In addition, flooding rainfall will also be a serious threat.

The specific forecasts for each day are below. If you are in one of regions affected, be sure you have a plan to get the latest weather information multiple times a day.

Sunday

Sunday's Thunderstorm Outlook

• Threat area: Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak expected in the regions illustrated in red within the inset map (right). This includes eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, southern/western Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northern/western Mississippi, western Tennessee, western Kentucky and southern/western Illinois. 
• Hazards: Damaging winds, large hail and multiple tornadoes possible. Some tornadoes could be strong (EF2 or higher rating) and on the ground for long periods of time. Excessive rainfall could trigger flash flooding.
• Maximum TOR:CON: 6 to 7 in parts of Arkansas, northern Louisiana, western Missouri and northwest Mississippi.
• Cities: Kansas City | Springfield, Mo. | Omaha, Neb. | Fort Smith, Ark. | Little Rock, Ark. |Shreveport, La. | Memphis, Tenn.

Monday

Monday's Thunderstorm Outlook

• Threat area: Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak continues in the regions illustrated in red within the inset map (right). This includes parts of the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and the South.
• Hazards: Damaging winds, large hail and multiple tornadoes possible. Some tornadoes could be strong (EF2 or higher rating). Excessive rainfall could trigger flash flooding.
• Maximum TOR:CON: 6 in Louisiana and Mississippi.
• Cities: Memphis, Tenn. | Nashville, Tenn. | Jackson, Miss. | Birmingham, Ala. | Louisville, Ky.

Tuesday

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Outlook

• Threat area: Severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak possible in the regions illustrated in red within the inset map (right). This includes locations from the South to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes.
• Hazards:  Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes possible. In addition, heavy rainfall could trigger flash flooding.
• Maximum TOR:CON: 5 in southern Mississippi and central/southern Alabama.
• Cities: Atlanta | Nashville | Birmingham, Ala. | Louisville, Ky. 

Wednesday

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Outlook

• Threat area: Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast coast. There is uncertainty with how unstable the atmosphere will become, which will dictate how much severe weather we will see.
• Hazards: Damaging wind gusts, hail and some tornadoes possible. 
• Cities: Richmond, Va. | Raleigh, N.C. |Columbia, S.C.