Better Prepared for disaster

Boxing Day will mark 10 years since the Indian Ocean tsunami struck, killing about 250,000 people and destroying hundreds of thousands of homes and livelihoods. It was a disaster on an unprecedented scale and one the world was not prepared for. Had early warning systems been in place, many lives could have been saved.

As a humanitarian worker I have experienced the aftermath of hurricanes and cyclones, floods and earthquakes, all over the world, but the scale of the 2004 tsunami – across more than 13 countries – was like nothing I had ever seen. Visiting affected areas I remember finding it difficult to take in just how destructive and powerful the waves had been. Where there had once been thriving communities with homes, schools, markets, churches and mosques, there was nothing except rubble – the concrete foundations of buildings washed away. But the worst thing was talking to people who had lost everything. They could not understand how the sea, which for most was a source of food and income, could hit them in such a devastating way.

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2014/dec/09/natural-disaster-preparedness-indian-ocean-tsunami

Wild weather to continue to batter eastern Australia in lead-up to Christmas

Unusually tumultuous weather has swept parts of eastern Australia over the past week, with meteorologists warning that further storms, hail and rain are likely to return in the lead-up to Christmas.

A severe thunderstorm battered Sydney on Sunday, leaving more than 10,000 homes without power as large hailstones rained down on parts of the city. Flights from Sydney airport were cancelled while the Tropfest short film festival was delayed after its venue in Centennial Park was evacuated.

http://www.theguardian.com/weather/2014/dec/08/wild-weather-continue-batter-eastern-australia

Heatwaves likely 'every other year' by 2030s

Torrid European summers like the one in 2003 which claimed an estimated 70,000 lives are set to become a regular occurrence within two decades and the “new normal” by the end of the century, according to a new Met Office study.

The climate modelling, which was published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, foresees a dramatic rise in the chance of severely hot weather patterns in central Europe and the Mediterranean, if greenhouse gas emissions continue along their current path.

“Extremely warm summers that would occur twice a century in the early 2000s are now expected to happen twice a decade,” said Dr Nikos Christidis, the lead author of the new paper. “The chances of heatwaves as extreme as seen in 2003 have increased from about one-in-1,000 years to about one-in-100 years and are projected to occur once every other year by the 2030s-2040s under continuing greenhouse gas emissions.”

As well as the record-breaking European summer of 2003, severe heatwaves in the last decade have baked Moscow in 2010, Texas in 2011 and Australia, in its ‘angry summer’ of 2012-2013.

The odds of further extreme temperature events have already whittled rapidly since the last Met Office paper on climate change 10 years ago, Peter Stott, another of the paper’s authors, told the Guardian. “The predictions in that paper have been borne out by observations since,” he noted.

Between the Met’s 2004 climate change report looking at weather events in the 1990s and its new study, which covers the 2003-2012 period, temperatures in central Europe and the Mediterranean have risen by 0.81C.

As world leaders began arriving in Lima for talks on a new global climate treaty, the UK energy and climate change secretary, Ed Davey, said that the new research underscored the urgency of climate mitigation action

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/dec/08/heatwaves-likely-every-other-year-by-2030s-says-met-office-study

The state of California withers under the worst drought in 1,200

Monday, December 8, 2014, 7:57 PM - Severe drought is nothing new to the Golden State, but the past three years have been the driest California in over a millennium.

According to a new study published in the Journal of the American Geophysical Union, natural causes are to blame for the dry, arid conditions that have gripped the state since 2012. But just how bad has the recent drought been?
To find answers to their queries, scientists looked not to the skies, but to the trees.
Researchers measured tree rings in 287 blue oak trees in Central and Southern California.  The rings reveal the age of a tree and tend to grow wider in wet years.  The rings, found in trees that dated as far back as 800 A.D., indicated that rainfall reached a record low between 2012 and 2014. Over 60 periods of drought were identified in the course of 1,200 years, but none of these compared to the severity of the most recent dry spell.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/the-state-of-california-withers-under-the-worst-drought-in-1200-years/41495/

Nor'easter impacts most of eastern Canada, a state of emergency in the west

Tuesday, December 9, 2014, 4:07 PM - The Weather Network remains in Storm Watch ahead of a powerful nor'easter set to bring snowy and messy weather to eastern Canada, including Ontario and Quebec. On the west coast, heavy rain has caused localized flooding, prompting a state of emergency in the city of Courtneay.

Atlantic Canada 
Weather statements cover most of the east coast with snow and rain expected to debut Tuesday evening.

• New Brunswick: Winter storm, rainfall and freezing rain warnings cover the province, warning of potentially hazardous conditions. Areas north of Fredericton and west of Bathurst could get 20-30 cm of snow with more expected in the higher elevations. Freezing rain or a rain-snow mix is likely in areas north of the Fundy coast.  Up to 80 mm of rain is expected in the bay, reaching 100 mm locally.
• Nova Scotia: "Significant rainfall is expected Wednesday into Thursday," Environment Canada says in a special weather statement issued for parts of the province.  up to 100 mm of rain is possible by Thursday from Halifax west. Wind warning are in effect for Shelburne Country, with gusts up to 90 km/h along the coast expected.
• Newfoundland: The system will impact the island from pre-dawn Thursday to Saturday. Up to 10 cm of snow could accumulate in the west and 15-30 mm of rain in the east, including the Avalon. Gusts in excess of 80 km/h will be present along the coast.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/weather-briefing-what-to-expect-on-tuesday-december-9/41488/

'Weather bomb' raises risk of severe gales for Scotland

Ferry and rail services in Scotland have been cancelled as winds strengthen ahead of an Atlantic storm that is due to hit the UK later.

The Met Office has issued a yellow 'be aware' warning for most of the UK for later on Tuesday, Wednesday and early on Thursday.
For Scotland, it has been upgraded to an amber 'be prepared' warning.
Severe gales have been forecast and sea swells for parts of Scotland of up to 40ft (12m).
The amber warning has been issued for the Northern Isles, Western Isles - where all schools and nurseries will be closed on Wednesday - the north and west Highlands and Argyll.
It warns of "very high waves" and islanders have been warned to take extra care on causeways that link up parts of the isles.
Stornoway Coastguard has warned that the sea state could become "phenomenal", the term used to describe the worst conditions.
Flood warnings have been issued for the Western Isles and also Corpach, Caol, Fort William and Glen Lyon.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30393614

Northeast Snowstorm to Plaster Interior While Tropical Storm Conditions Hit Coast

A major storm will impact the Northeast through Thursday, complete with gusty winds, substantial snow, heavy rain, a wintry mix and flooding.
A strengthening storm along the mid-Atlantic coast will push northward on Tuesday, then inland Tuesday night through Thursday.
According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "This will be a snowstorm for some areas well inland, while impacts similar to a tropical storm will occur along the coast, including much of Interstate-95."

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/major-winter-storm-takes-aim-a/38606702

Snow Rollers ( 1 of the World's 7 Strangest Winter Weather Phenomena)

Common in winter especially on hilly or mountainous terrain, snow rollers form when strong winds blow moist snow along the ground, piling it up into a cylinder-shaped ball that's hollow in the middle. When a snow roller gets too big and heavy to be blown around anymore, it stops where it lies.
Snow rollers can grow as large as a barrel or oil drum, or be as small as a roll of toilet paper. They also can leave tracks behind them. Here's a few of the conditions needed for snow rollers to form, according to the National Weather Service:

• Existing icy or crusty snow cover, so additional snow won't stick to it
• Wet, loose snow on top of the icy, crusty snow cover
• Wind strong enough to scoop up balls of snow and propel them forward

• Ground with at least some slope or incline

http://www.weather.com/science/nature/news/strangest-winter-weather-phenomena#/1

Mystery On 'Mussel Beach'

A mystery is brewing on South Africa’s Rodderg Beach.
Hundreds of thousands of black mussels have washed ashore, nearly covering the sand in some stretches of the beach.
Researchers originally thought red tide, a type of toxic algae bloom, was to blame.
But some marine experts disagree, saying the mussels were alive when they washed ashore.
The marine experts suspect huge swells and currents ripped the mussels right off the reefs and carried them to shore.
Either way, officials are warning people they shouldn’t consider these mussels for dinner.

http://www.weather.com/science/nature/news/mussels-pile-up-on-rodderg-beach

Winter Storm Damon Produces Variety of Winter Impacts Across the Northeast

Winter storm Damon will produce a variety of wintry weather across the Northeast through Thursday. This system does not have a lot of cold air to work with. So, rather than a mid-winter Nor'Easter that produces a major snow storm for New England, this system will have to work to get a snow storm anywhere. The best ways to get to cold air are to travel north into Upstate New York as an example, or to go up a few hundred feet in elevation. Significant snowfall will be limited to Upstate New York and parts of Western New England with the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Catskills and Poconos seeing the bulk of the higher snowfall totals. This will also be a heavy, wet variety of snow so there is potential to see power outages where it snows the most from this storm. There will also be pockets of icing in portions of Interior New England where cold air stays locked in at the surface through this evening. Note, the snowfall actually is found as far west as Buffalo and could even affect Cleveland. That is due to the track this system will take, actually moving back toward the Northwest as it heads through New England and into the province of Quebec.
In addition to the wintry side, this systems produces strong winds along the New England coast through Wednesday morning and heavy rainfall. A variety of flood advisories are out for this region.

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-weather-watch-2014-2015-20140930

December Thaw Update: Arctic Chill Long Gone, but Even Warmer Weather Ahead for Much of Western, Central U.S.

A prolonged spell of unusually warm December weather is expected to cover a sizable swath of the U.S. in the week ahead, and even the occasional interruptions in the mild pattern won't be all that cold.
The warm pattern continues after several rounds of early arctic chill this fall. That subzero cold will virtually vanish from the Lower 48 even as we approach the shortest days of the year.

A jet stream pattern that has encouraged cold air masses from near the Arctic Circle to rush southward into the U.S. has changed, allowing much milder air from the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico to become the dominant influences on temperatures.
Computer forecast models are in strong agreement that this will allow unseasonably warm weather to take over a large part of the western and central U.S., not to mention a large swath of western and central Canada, for most of the upcoming week.
Record high temperatures are possible early this week in parts of the West, including Portland, Oregon, Sacramento, California and Salt Lake City, Utah.
Late this week record warm low temperatures are possible in Great Falls, Montana, Rapid City, South Dakota and Omaha, Nebraska.

7 Ways the U.S. Can Adapt to Climate Change

Climate change is being felt locally, through floods, heatwaves and other meteorological maladies, but there’s little sense in leaving the mammoth task of climate adaptation to local communities to figure out for themselves.

That’s why the Obama Administration convened a panel of local, state and tribal leaders last year to advise the federal government on how to guide and improve climate adaptation efforts and resiliency planning. On Monday, that panel presented a 46-page report containing more than 100 of suggestions to White House officials, ranging from a need for a compendium of adaptation case studies and best practices to changes in how the insurance industry works.

“These should be nonpartisan issues, and they’re really issues that impact the quality of life in our cities,” task force member Jim Brainard, the mayor of Carmel, Ind., said during a press conference Monday. “We cannot continue to build cities as we have in the past.”

The federal government says it’s already acting on some of the group’s findings. “We have started to integrate the recommendations into the grant programs across the federal government, and really trying to figure out how to embed this work in the DNA of the agencies across the administration,” White House Council on Environmental Quality chief Mike Boots told reporters.

Many of the panel’s suggestions focused on the need for improved data and information; a theme upon which the government had acted even before it started sending out the morning’s media alerts. The U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, aka the Climate Explorer, is a new online tool that can be used to assess coastal flooding risks, water shortfalls and other challenges associated with global warming.

The first phase of the toolkit was launched by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Monday, representing an extension of the government’s geeky approachto harnessing the power of Big Data in working to adapt to climate change.

Not all of the group’s recommendations were focused narrowly on climate change. Many simply offered advice for fostering greater resilience to disasters, regardless of whether climate change is behind those disasters.

“It’s about streamlining the relationships that the federal government has with local communities when it comes to things like disaster relief and extreme weather,” Robert Cowin, the Union of Concerned Scientists’ government affairs director for climate and energy issues, said.

Cowin said the Obama Administration could act on many of the report’s recommendations without the support of Congress, which is skeptical of the need for climate action. But he said the task of readying the nation for a deteriorating climate would be made easier if Congress supported reforms, such as by reshaping agencies and allocating funds.

Below is summary of the report’s major recommendations, which were widely praised by experts.

“They did a really good job of teasing out the big picture policy changes that need be made,”  Jessica Grannis, the Georgetown Climate Center’s adaptation program manager, said. The recommendations include “clear marching orders to the federal government,” she said, providing it with “concrete details” of what needs to change, and which agencies should “take charge of changing particular aspects of a huge range of very complicated federal programs.”

1) Protecting Communities

The panel called on the federal government to ramp up existing efforts to foster a reimagination of how cities can grow, such as through the Partnership for Sustainable Communities and the $1 billion post-Sandy Rebuild Through Design competition.

The group also asked the government to encourage and lead in the development of improved guidelines and standards that better protect buildings and infrastructure from disaster.

2) Protecting Infrastructure

Climate change poses heat- and flood-based risks to roads, power plants, harbors, water delivery systems, rail lines,water treatment facilities and bridges. The group urged the federal government to reduce those risks by building in low-risk areas, where possible, and by retrofitting vulnerable infrastructure that can’t be relocated. The group also called for a boost in spending on green and natural infrastructure, such as the replanting of wetlands to buffer against flood surges and sea level rise.

3) Protecting Natural Resources

Experts praised the task force for including ecosystems in its report. The conservation and restoration of natural and working lands, the group stated, can protect water and food supplies, moderate local temperatures, reduce flood risks and provide habitat for wildlife that’s being stressed and driven to new ranges by climate shifts.

4) Protecting Health

Climate change can make people ill, such as through heat stress and by expanding the range of disease-carrying mosquitoes. Disadvantaged and illness-prone communities are “likely to be disproportionately burdened,” the group said in its report.

The panel asked the government to develop new health tracking tools. It also wants it to identify the most vulnerable communities and to consider climate change when evaluating federal programs designed to help them.

The value of improved disaster preparedness was also emphasized, as was the importance of local food security, whichcan be threatened by global warming and ocean acidification.

5) Improving Disaster Preparedness and Recovery

Disasters offer unique opportunities for communities to rebuild in new and creative ways — ways that can help shelter them from similar such disasters in the future. With that in mind, federal disaster recovery programs should repair and rebuild in ways that reduces future risks, and they should help local, state and tribal authorities do the same, the group said. It urged the government to deny funding requests that would see buildings and infrastructure rebuilt in ways that exacerbated vulnerabilities.

The group also called on the federal government for “adequate funding” to update the National Flood Insurance Program’s maps, to reflect sea level rise, shoreline changes and changes in storm frequency wrought by global warming.

6) The Other Green

Whenever the government performs a cost-benefit analysis that supports a major decision, the panel asked it to abandon quests for short-term benefits in favor of longer-term strategies that consider financial risks and vulnerabilities associated with future climate hazards. The long-term costs of worsened flood vulnerability should be considered, for example, if a project is expected to damage a flood-buffering wetland.

The panel asked the government to work with the insurance industry to develop pricing structures that encourage climate-savvy building decisions. It also wants policies developed that will require early notification of climate-related hazards before a property is traded.

7) Better Information

The panel called on the government to continue researching and developing tools that can equip local and state decision-makers with the information that they need to brace for climate change. Hence, creation of the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit, which NOAA says “will evolve” in the coming months, following this week’s first-phase rollout. In the coming months, the database “will be updated to address additional areas such as water, ecosystems, transportation and health.”

http://www.wunderground.com/news/7-ways-us-adapt-climate-change-20141118

The Surprising Beauty of a Polluted Watertway

Brooklyn's Gowanus Canal is among the most polluted waterways in the nation. Years of storm and sewer runoff and waste from now-defunct industrial sites have contaminated the canal with coal tar wastes, heavy metals and more.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/surprising-beauty-polluted-gowanus-canal-photos-20141107

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the contamination threatens residents who still use the canal for fishing and recreation. In 2010, it was added to the EPA's Superfund National Priorities List, allowing further investigation into the site so that the EPA can work to address the contamination.

Despite the infamy of the canal, photographer Steven Hirsch found unlikely beauty among its waste. Using the sludge as his canvas, Hirsch has captured a collection of psychedelic images.

"The images are a result of pollution, but this was the palette I used to make abstractions. The pollution provided me a canvas of colors, shapes and designs to make art," Hirsch told weather.com.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/surprising-beauty-polluted-gowanus-canal-photos-2http://www.

Lake-Effect Snow Pummels Great Lakes States; Four Storm-Related Deaths, Around 140 Vehicles Stranded

An Arctic blast set off a major lake-effect snowstorm across the Great Lakes, dumping feet of snow on parts of western and central New York and additional snow on northwest Pennsylvania, northern Ohio, northern and western Michigan and far northern Wisconsin.

"By the time all is said and done, parts of Upstate New York could be buried in over 5 feet of new snow," said weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman.

At least four storm-related deaths were reported in Buffalo, New York, Tuesday night in a statement by Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz. One person died in an automobile accident, and the three other deaths are possibly due to cardiac complications, WBFO reports. 

Road closures were reported all across the region. A stretch of I-90 over 100 miles long from Rochester, New York, to the Pennsylvania State Line is shutdown due to white-out conditions. Around 140 vehicles are reportedly stranded on the road, according to Poloncarz. Snow was so heavy in some places that even snow plows were getting stuck. In West Seneca, New York, 10 of the city's 22 snow plows were reportedly stuck out on roads.

Tuesday night, Amtrak released a statement suspending service between Albany, New York, Ontario, Canada, and Cleveland, Ohio, (among other locations) until Wednesday afternoon. 

Officials in Erie County, New York, declared a state of emergency due to impossible driving conditions. Travel bans were also in place across the area to prevent additional people from getting stuck in the snow.

The snow's effects reached such an extent that New York Gov. Cuomo deployed the National Guard. 

“We are deploying the National Guard to ramp up efforts to keep Western New York residents safe and to assist storm recovery efforts in any way possible," Cuomo said Tuesday. 

School closures were reported from western Michigan to western New York Tuesday due to the lake-effect snow event. Traffic accidents added up, prompting the closure of roads in Michigan, Indiana and New York.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/lake-effect-snow-new-york-michigan-indiana-ohio-wisconsin-pennsylvania-20141118

NASA Photo Illuminates Florida's Risk For Sea Level Rise, Deadly Tropical Cyclones

The photo, taken by astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) in October 2014, shows Florida's peninsula illuminated at night. As NASA notes, the brightest areas in the photo indicate the most populous areas in the state. Notably, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro area, home to 5.6 million people, is the most noticeable blip on the landscape, lighting up the entire southeastern coast of Florida a brilliant white.

Other noticeable cities include the Tampa metro area (2.8 million people), the brightest area on the Gulf Coast, the Orlando metro area (2.3 million people), which lights up a chunk of central Florida and the Jacksonville metro area (1.3 million people) in the far northeastern corner of the state.

More importantly, as you can tell from the bright spots in the photo, most of Florida's nearly 20 million people live along the coast. And even though Florida hasn't had a hurricane make landfall on the state in more than nine years, the risk for a potentially deadly tropical cyclone only increases as more people flock to Florida's coasts.

The most notorious example might just come from Hurricane Andrew, which made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane in the Miami metro area in 1992. When Andrew came ashore in the Homestead, Florida, area it shredded homes and caused an estimated $23 billion in damage, killing 23 people.

Global sea level rise is another risk to the millions along Florida's coast. Since 1880, sea levels along the Florida coast have risen by nearly a foot, and are projected to rise another 3 to 6 feet by the end of the century due to climate change. So great is the concern for sea level rise in the coastal areas of South Florida, where some areas are currently just five feet above sea level, that local politicians in South Miami, Florida, recently proposed splitting Florida into two separate states, North and South Florida, in order to better sort out sea level rise implications.

With Florida's population centers so clustered along the coast, it seems more like a matter of when, not if, serious and possibly deadly events could impact millions of Floridians.

Don't forget to click through the entire slideshow above to see how other global cities light up the surface of Earth at night.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/nasa-photo-florida-coast-night-20141119

California Finally Recovers From Drought

A very wet week from November 29th through December 6th brought widespread heavy rainfall to almost the entire state of California and has greatly improved the dire drought situation. With another big storm on the horizon there is hope that the worst of the long drought in California may at last be coming to an end.

The hills of California have turned green again for the first time in almost nine months following a five day period of heavy rainfall November 29th through December 3rd. The San Francisco Bay Area was especially hard hit with 12.12” of precipitation measured in Fairfax, Marin County and 11.62” in Tilden Park in the hills above Berkeley. However, all of the state saw a good soaking as the table below illustrates:



Table assembled by Jan Null of Golden Gate Weather Services with data from official NWS sources.

As a result of the storm(s) most of California is now running a seasonal precipitation surplus, the first time they’ve seen such since December 2012.



Precipitation for the water season that began July 1st and as of December 7th for selected California cities arranged geographically from north to south.



This map shows the percentage of normal precipitation for the hydrological water year that began on October 1st (vs. the seasonal water year that began July 1st in the table above) as of December 7th. Map from California Department of Water Resources.

At this point, the most significant impact of the rainfall has been to drastically improve soil moisture levels. The reservoir situation has also improved, albeit not so markedly. The state’s largest reservoir, Shasta Reservoir, has grown by 2% in volume and Lake Oroville, the 2nd largest and where most of the state’s drinking and urban use water comes from, saw an increase of 5% in volume as a result of the recent rain. Of course, overall, the reservoirs are still at near record low levels for this time of the year running at about 56% of normal capacity statewide for this time of the year
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=318

Hagupit Weakens to a Tropical Storm After Killing 21 in the Philippines

Light to moderate rains are falling in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, as a much-weakened Tropical Storm Hagupit plows west-northwest at 7 mph. Hagupit made landfall in Dolores, Eastern Samar Island, at 9:15 pm local time on Saturday as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and will finally exit the Philippines on Tuesday morning after dumping widespread rains of 10 - 15" across the Central Philippines. Some 2-day rainfall totals from the storm include 17.06" (433 mm) at Catbalogan and 15.55" (395 mm) at Borongan on Samar Island, and 9.14" (232 mm) on Masbate Island. At least 21 deaths are being blamed on the typhoon so far, but rescue workers have not yet reached remote areas that received heavy damage where the typhoon initially made landfall, on northern Samar Island. Satellite loops show a large but weakening tropical storm, with much reduced heavy thunderstorm activity. Nevertheless, Hagupit is still a very serious heavy rainfall threat. The storm's slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph through the western Philippines will potentially bring heavy rains of 5 - 10" to Manila, with a population of about 12 million, causing serious flooding. However, it appears that the Philippines have avoided a major catastrophe on the scale of last year's Super Typhoon Haiyan, which left over 7,300 people dead or missing.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2876

Record Breaking Cold

A second push of bitterly cold air has blasted its way south and east, bringing extremely cold temperatures for millions of Americans who have already endured nearly a week of January-like chill. There have been more than 350 record lows and record cool highs set, covering 42 states, since Sunday.

On Wednesday morning record lows were broken or tied from New York to New Orleans and more record lows and record cool high temperatures are possible

White Christmas

While many people across the country are likely dreaming of a white Christmas, some cities offer a better probability than others for snow on the ground each holiday.

Even if a light dusting is present on Christmas Day, in order to garner the official meteorological declaration of a white Christmas, at least 1 inch of snow must be on the ground.

"You need snow - on or near Christmas Day is ideal," AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Jim Andrews said. "Of course, if it happens well before Christmas, it needs to stay cold (near to below freezing) through Christmas to keep snow on the ground."

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Also, a cold snap before the snowfall is helpful in chilling the ground, he said, adding that frozen ground holds snow much better than unfrozen ground.

Areas of the interior Northeast, Upper Midwest, northern Plains, Rocky Mountains and Intermountain West offer the highest prospect of a white Christmas in the continental United States.

Take a look at five of America's major cities with populations of more than 250,000 that are most likely to see a white Christmas each year based on NOAA's 30-year normal data from 1981-2010.

Minneapolis

(istock/Thinkstock)

Minneapolis takes the number one spot on our list with a 77 percent likelihood of having at least an inch of snow on the ground for the Christmas holiday. The city's December snowfall average is 11.5 inches and the snowiest Christmas on record occurred in 1945 with a snowfall total of 9.6 inches.

"Minneapolis is farthest north and the coldest of the cities [on the list]," Andrews said. "By the time you get to Christmas, the normal temperature is well below freezing; if there's precipitation, the odds are that it will be snow rather than rain or ice."

Denver

(istock/Thinkstock)

Taking the number two spot on the list with a 50 percent prospect of seeing a white Christmas, Denver has an average December snowfall of 8.7 inches. The snowiest Christmas Day in the Mile-High City's recorded history occurred in 2007 with a total of 7.4 inches.

"Denver's climate is volatile in December," Andrews said. "It can be exceptionally warm on Christmas day with temperatures nearing 70 F, or it be near minus 20 F; those are absolute extremes."

If the pattern is such that the normal, moderating westerly winds are shut off, the cold can hold its ground there and keep snow locked in, he added

Milwaukee

(istock/Thinkstock)

Along with two other cities on this list, Milwaukee ties for third place with a 47 percent probability of a white Christmas. The city sees an average of 10.6 inches of snowfall in December. The snowiest Christmas in the city's recorded history occurred in 1950 with a total of 5.7 inches of snow.

"[The probability] has to do with the normal temperature and normal precipitation in the days and weeks leading up to Christmas," Andrews said.

RELATED:
Exposed: Why We Dream of a White Christmas
White Christmas Versus Global Warming
World's 10 Best Holiday Markets

Detroit

(Photo/ Flickr/ Dave Sizer)

Detroit, like Milwaukee, has a 47 percent prospect of having at least 1 inch or more of snow on the ground at Christmas each year. The average snowfall for December across the Motor City is 9.7 inches.

While the 2013-2014 season marked the snowiest winter in the city's history, Detroit's snowiest Christmas day occurred in 1915 with a snowfall total of 7.9 inches.

"While Detroit does not benefit from lake-effect snow, it is usually cold enough [in December] for precipitation to often take the form of snow, thereby giving the city a significant chance of a white Christmas," Andrews said.

Buffalo

A band of storm clouds moves across Lake Erie and into the towns south of Buffalo, New York, Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014. (AP Photo/Gary Wiepert)

As with Detroit and Milwaukee, there is a 47 percent likelihood that Buffalo will have a white Christmas each year. Buffalo has the highest December snowfall average on the list with 27.4 inches. The snowiest Christmas Day the city has seen in recorded history occurred in 2002 with a snowfall total of 8.4 inches.

"Lake-effect snow contributes to the city's near 50 percent probability of seeing a white Christmas," Andrews said.

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Tropical Storm Polo

http://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-hurricane-polo-pacific-mexico-20140916

Residents and stranded visitors in Baja California should continue to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Polo, which is approaching hurricane strength about 200 miles south of Manzanillo on the southwestern part of the mainland.

The outer bands of Tropical Storm Polo are currently bringing rain to portions of the southwestern Mexican coast, where tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued. 

Steady strengthening is expected over the next day or so, as Tropical Storm Polo moves toward the northwest, paralleling the Mexican Pacific coast. 

While the core of the system is expected to stay offshore, periods of strong winds, heavy rain, high surf and rip currents may eventually affect portions of the coast. Rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are expected with isolated totals of 15 inches possible near the coast of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. The heavy rain brings the threat of flash flooding and mudslides.