Fargo, Red River Flood: Delayed, Still Looming

Jon Erdman Published: Apr 15, 2013, 4:12 PM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/fargo-flood-threat-delayed-20130412

Flood Threat Still A Concern

A Ticking Time bomb in Fargo?

In March, a dire prediction was issued by forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) in Grand Forks/Fargo, N.D.:  a potential top five flood of record in Fargo and possibly other points along the Red River in North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
Yet, the Red River has yet to rise above flood stage at any point along its length, despite some flooding on smaller creeks.
On April 11, volunteers in Fargo, N.D. reached their goal of filling one million sandbags in preparation for spring flooding.  This was done in just nine days.
However, the flood danger has not passed, but is merely delayed.

Winter Storm Yogi: Deja Vu All Over Again

Chris Dolce,Nick Wiltgen Published: Apr 15, 2013, 4:28 PM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/winter-storm-yogi-20130415

The overall weather pattern this upcoming week is shaping up to potentially be deja vu, if you'll pardon us saying so, as Winter Storm Yogi affects some of the same parts of the country as Winter Storm Walda did last week.
Much like we saw this past week, cold air will be entrenched across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, warm and moist air will surge northward from the Gulf of Mexico. In between, we'll have a frontal zone with low pressure riding along it that will head northeastward with time.
Potential impacts from this "deja vu" pattern will likely be similar as well with more snow and severe weather.

More Spring Snow?

Current Radar

Tuesday's Forecast

Wednesday's Forecast

Thursday's Forecast

Snowfall Forecast

For some of the same areas that just dealt with Winter Storm Walda, more snow is moving in. This is especially true for cities such as Denver and Cheyenne, Wyo. through Wednesday.
(MORE: 10 Strangest Things About Walda)
The heavy-snow bull's-eye will focus on southern Wyoming and northern Colorado Monday night into Tuesday, with the potential for additional accumulation all the way into Wednesday. This prolonged period of snow will likely generate significant accumulations, especially over the mountains as well as areas just east of the mountains in Wyoming and northern Colorado.
(SKI FORECASTS: Colorado | Wyoming)
Not only will the large-scale storm system generate widespread clouds and precipitation, but ground-level easterly winds will also force air to rise into the Front Range of the Rockies, enhancing the formation of precipitation and boosting snowfall potential even more. It's not out of the question that a few locales from central Wyoming to far northern Colorado could exceed two feet of new snow from this system.

Upper Midwest Impact

Farther to the northeast across the Plains and Upper Midwest, exactly where and how much snowfall to expect will be dependent on the exact track of the low-pressure system. The forecast maps on this page show a potential swath of snow from Colorado and Wyoming to the Upper Midwest.
The general consensus favors a swath from western Nebraska through South Dakota into parts of eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota for the maximum snowfall from Yogi, but models are not in total agreement on the later stages of the forecast. A southward jog could put more of Nebraska and Iowa in play for accumulating snow.
Additionally, as the center of low pressure winds up and heads into the Great Lakes region, additional snow may develop Thursday into Friday across a large part of Minnesota and Wisconsin, potentially including the Twin Cities. Temperatures will be a key question, especially given how far into spring we will be by this point, and may temper the snowfall potential in this region.
Any additional snow in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota will be very unwelcome after the heavy snow that fell from Winter Storm Xerxes Sunday and early Monday. The snow from Xerxes is pushing flood worries even higher in this region once snow melt finally occurs later this spring.

1 Dead, 1 Missing in Avalanches East of Seattle

Published: Apr 14, 2013, 0:42 PM EDT Associated Press

http://www.weather.com/news/avalanche-victims-washington-20130413

1 Missing in Avalanche

SNOQUALMIE PASS, Wash. -- Authorities in Washington state say one woman has died and one man is still missing after a pair of spring avalanches struck separate groups hiking in the mountains each of Seattle.
(PHOTOS: Stunning 'Ice Waves' Captured)
King County Sgt. Katie Larson said rescuers carried a female snowshoer off of Red Mountain in blizzard-like conditions early Sunday. The woman was confirmed dead at the rescue base. She had been hiking with her dog near a group of a dozen other people when an avalanche hit Saturday.
A separate avalanche at Granite Mountain swept a group of three snowshoers more than 1,200 feet. Two men emerged, but a 60-year-old hiker from Kent, Wash., was still missing Sunday morning.
Larson said Sunday the search for that hiker has been suspended indefinitely due to the poor weather conditions.
The avalanches occurred as heavy snow fell near Snoqualmie Pass about 50 miles from Seattle.

“One of the climbers tells me that they had no warning.”

Sgt. Katie Larson

The other person initially reported missing, Chris Soun, told KOMO the group was about 2 1/2 miles into the wilderness when the avalanche struck and split the group. He said his friends found him buried against a tree and dug him out.
"I thought I was dying,'" Soun said.
Several people in the 12-person party made it off the mountain, but most were still there by 5:30 p.m. None is believed to have a serious injury.
The avalanches occurred as heavy snow fell near Snoqualmie Pass about 50 miles from Seattle.
An avalanche meteorologist with the U.S. Forest Service's Northwest Avalanche Center said April snow is particularly susceptible to avalanches, because of warmer daytime temperatures and more sunshine.
"Spring skiing is a tradition here," Garth Ferber said. "April snowfall is common and susceptible to the effects of sun and daytime heating."

Shelf Clouds: A Menacing Sight!

Jon Erdman Published: Apr 15, 2013, 8:53 AM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/shelf-cloud-photos-20130412

Freeport, Ill.

iWitness Weather

A huge shelf cloud rolls in just east of Freeport, Ill. in 2010. (Photo credit: iWitnessWeather/danros2)

Most of you would probably say a tornado is the most frightening cloud formation.
Perhaps close behind is what you see above.
Resembling an advancing army, shelf clouds are typically seen at the leading edge of a squall line of thunderstorms.
What you're seeing in a shelf cloud is the boundary between a thunderstorm (or line of thunderstorms') downdraft and updraft.
Rain-chilled air descends in a thunderstorm, then spreads laterally when reaching the earth's surface.  Warmer, more moist air is lifted at the leading edge, or gust front, of this rain-cooled air.  When this warm, moist air condenses, you see the shelf cloud.
As the shelf cloud passes, you'll feel an abrupt wind shift in both direction and speed, followed within minutes by heavy rain or hail.
A more rare variety of this type of cloud, called a roll cloud, resembles a giant rolling pin in the sky.  (See the second photo in the slideshow above)
Unlike a shelf cloud, the roll cloud is completely detached from its parent thunderstorm.

Winter Storm Walda: Snow and Ice Continue

Jon Erdman,Nick Wiltgen Published: Apr 11, 2013, 2:21 PM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-walda-20130407

Tracking April Snow

Like so many mid-winter storms this year, but unlike most April storms, Winter Storm Walda is turning out to be a long-lived snow and ice storm. Let's lay out the latest forecast for Walda:
(MORE WALDA:  News | Photos)

New England Snow Forecast

North-Central Snow Forecast

Friday's Rain/Snow

Thursday night into Friday: The main batch of precipitation from Walda will move east across the Northeast. With a cold Arctic high-pressure zone to the north still supplying some cold air, wintry precipitation including snow can be expected across parts of northern New England.
At this time, it appears that the bulk of the accumulating snow will be confined to northern two-thirds of Maine, but some accumulations may graze the Green and White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire as well.
Accumulating ice will be a potential concern in this period from the Adirondacks and Catskills of New York into the Berkshires of western Massachusetts.
Meanwhile, there will still be lingering snow falling across parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan on the back side of Walda's circulation.
(NOW: Interactive radar | Winter alerts)
This same energetic system associated with Walda brought high winds and blowing dust across the Desert Southwest on Monday, and wind damage and power outages in northern Utah Monday night.
Early Tuesday morning, heavy freezing rain and thunder brought down tree limbs and coated cars in ice in Sioux Falls, S.D. At one point, 35,000 customers were without power in this city of 150,000 residents.
Tuesday afternoon brought the bizarre combination of freezing rain, snow, large hail and lightning to parts of central and northeast Nebraska where severe thunderstorm warnings were issued in areas experiencing temperatures as low as 18 degrees.
And Wednesday morning brought freezing rain as far south as Abilene, Texas, an extraordinary southerly reach for icy precipitation in mid-April.
Snow fell in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area on Thursday. The airport measured up to 3 inches from the storm as of late morning. Nearly a foot of snow piled up in the southwest Minnesota town of Redwood Falls.

EF-2 Tornado Confirmed in Missouri

Published: Apr 11, 2013, 1:50 PM EDT weather.com

1 / 15

Botkinburg, Ark.

A flag flutters over what remains of the sanctuary of the Botkinburg Foursquare Church in Botkinburg, Ark., Thursday, April 11, 2013. (AP Photo/Danny Johnston)

The National Weather Service confirmed that an EF-2 tornado hit Hazelwood, Mo., outside St. Louis, Wednesday evening. The tornado damaged cars and homes, but no serious injuries were reported.
The same system stretched south, spawning tornado warnings in north central Arkansas. In Van Buren county, the storm damaged over 30 houses, destroyed a church, and heavily damaged a fire department. The weather is blamed for at least five injuries.

Play Video

Destruction Captured from Possible Tornado

http://www.weather.com/news/severe-weather-midwest-south-20130410

(MORE: Track Severe Weather Across the South)
The severe weather continued into Mississippi and Alabama by Thursday afternoon. You can get full details on Thursday's threat in the Severe Weather Tracker.
(MORE: 10 Strange Things about Winter Storm Walda)
Warm, humid air gave way to much cooler air behind a cold front, and along the boundary a number of storms popped up. At one point on Wednesday, there was a 40-degree temperature difference between Pine Bluff in southeastern Arkansas, at 80 degrees, and Fayetteville in the northwestern corner, at 40 degrees.

Toughest Weather City Tournament 2013

Chris Dolce,Jon Erdman Published: Apr 6, 2013, 5:58 AM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/sports-rec/march-madness/Toughest-Weather-City-Tournament-20130315

iWitness Weather

A dust storm marches through Lubbock, Texas in 2011. (Photo: iWitnessWeather contributor bgoodman0311)

We started on March 19, 2013 with 64 cities.  After over a quarter million total votes, we've crowned a champion.
By a roughly 2:1 margin, Lubbock, Texas knocked out Fairbanks, Alaska to win the title as 2013 America's Toughest Weather City.

(SEE THE ENTIRE TOURNAMENT:  Large, full completed bracket)

Toughest Weather City Championship Result

Fairbanks, Alaska                                 vs.                   Lubbock, Texas 
- Extreme cold, snowy, mild summer                             - Wind, snow, F5 tornado in 1970
- 114 days of subzero cold                                            - Drought-prone, dust storms
- 65" of snow                                                                  - 8.1" snow, 7 days w/ snow
- 90+ heat once every two years                                  - 85 days of 90+ heat

Winter Storm Walda: Say it Ain't (April) Snow!

Jon Erdman,Nick Wiltgen Published: Apr 7, 2013, 3:56 PM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-walda-20130407

An April Winter Storm

Needless to say, it's been a long, snowy winter for many Americans.
Recent weeks have brought signs of spring to parts of the northern and central Rockies with highs in the 70s as far north as Montana. That taste of spring is about to come to a crashing halt as Winter Storm Walda brings heavy snow, high winds, and a drastic drop in temperatures as the new workweek begins.
(MORE:  Is April snow unusual?)

The ingredients that will be in place this week for heavy snow in the Front Range of the Rockies.

We have a classic spring storm set to pivot out of the West into the Plains.  We've already addressed the potential for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms with this bullish dip in the jet stream.
This same sharp southward dip in the jet stream, lumbering slowly east, looks poised to tap deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and pull it north and westward.

Monday's Rain/Snow

Tuesday's Rain/Snow

Wednesday's Rain/Snow

Snowfall Forecast

The combination of higher elevation, strong lift in the atmosphere, and near-surface temperatures just cold enough is expected to churn out accumulating snow, heavy in spots.  Let's lay out the forecast for Walda as it stands right now:
Monday:  Snow, possibly heavy, spreads into the High Plains of Montana, Wyoming, the western Dakotas. Significant snow is also expected in the mountains of western Montana, Idaho, eastern Oregon, western Wyoming, Utah and northern Nevada.
The forecast is a tough one for Salt Lake City, where rain could mix with or change over to snow late Monday into Monday night. Depending on exactly how cold it gets and how quickly, a few inches of slushy snow could accumulate on the valley floor, with some limited impacts on travel.
This heavy snow will likely plunge into the northern Colorado Front Range urban corridor late Monday night. Expect a period of rain and possibly thunderstorms, changing to snow Monday night as temperatures plummet rapidly from the 40s to near 20, leading to a flash freeze. A sheen of ice may well form on roadways underneath the heavy falling snow, making travel extremely treacherous.
Strong winds and heavy snow may lead to some power outages and downed tree limbs.
Tuesday:  Heavy snow likely from eastern Wyoming into northeast Colorado (including the I-25 urban corridor), western Nebraska and western South Dakota. Snow totals will exceed one foot in some areas. Strong winds may lead to blizzard conditions and subzero wind chills.  Some power outages and downed tree limbs are possible due to the high winds.  Significant travel impact likely on I-25, I-80, I-70, I-76 and I-90 in these areas.  Flight delays, cancellations are possible to and from Denver Int'l Airport.

NWS Announces Changes to Hurricane Warning System

Published: Apr 5, 2013, 10:29 AM EDT weather.com

New Rules for Tropical Warnings

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/nws-alters-hurricane-alerts-20130404

On Thursday, the National Weather Service announced changes to its post-tropical cyclone warning information, broadening the definitions of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Under the new guidelines, which will take effect on June 1, watches and warnings can be issued or remain in effect after a cyclone becomes post-tropical.

NOAA Photo

This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image taken on October 29, 2012 shows Sandy off the coast of Delaware and New Jersey.

This comes after a decision was made to drop hurricane warnings on Superstorm Sandy when it became post-tropical last October. Sandy was just dozens of miles from making a landfall when the storm lost its hurricane status, and thus, lost its hurricane watches and warnings.
That will not be a problem in similar situations in the future, thanks to the decision to change the guidelines.
"I would like to thank everyone for their open and candid feedback on this proposal," said Rick Knabb, Ph.D., director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center, in a press release. "Keeping communities safe when a storm threatens is truly a team effort and this change reflects that collaboration."
The National Hurricane Center has a deeper explanation of the new watches and warnings, as well as an example of how the new system will be used.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Superstorm Sandy

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Long Beach Island, N.J.

Associated Press

In this aerial photograph, heavy equipment pushes sand to restore a barrier dune along the Atlantic Ocean on Long Beach Island, N.J., Friday, Nov. 9, 2012, after the region was pounded by Superstorm Sandy the previous week.

Could Global Warming Change Tornado Season?

Seth Borenstein Published: Apr 5, 2013, 0:31 PM EDT Associated Press

http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/global-warming-tornadoes-20130318

Canon City, Colorado

iWitness weather user Sawyer James Perry snapped this photo in the Spring of 2012. It's a great illustration of the height of tornadoes. Note the debris field in the bottom third of the photo. The funnel cloud itself rises thousands of feet in the air. (iWitness weather user: Sawyer James Perry)

OKLAHOMA CITY  -- With the planet heating up, many scientists seem fairly certain some weather elements like hurricanes and droughts will worsen. But tornadoes have them stumped.

These unpredictable, sometimes deadly storms plague the United States more than any other country. Here in tornado alley, Oklahoma City has been hit with at least 147 tornadoes since 1890.

But as the traditional tornado season nears, scientists have been pondering a simple question: Will there be more or fewer twisters as global warming increases?

There is no easy answer. Lately, tornado activity in America has been Jekyll-and-Hyde weird, and scientists are unsure if climate change has played a role in recent erratic patterns.

Play Video

Possible Tornado Outbreak

In 2011, the United States saw its second-deadliest tornado season in history: Nearly 1,700 tornadoes killed 553 people. The Joplin, Mo., twister was the single deadliest in American history, killing 158 people and causing $2.8 billion in damage.

The following year, 2012, started even earlier and even busier. Through April there were twice as many tornadoes as normal. Then the twisters suddenly disappeared. Tornado activity from May to August of that year was the lowest in 60 years of record-keeping, said Harold Brooks, a top researcher at the National Weather Center in Norman, Okla.

Meanwhile, Canada saw an unusual number of tornadoes in 2012; Saskatchewan had three times the normal number.

That year, the jet stream moved north and "essentially shut down" tornadoes in the American Midwest said Greg Carbin, warning meteorologist at the federal storm center. A tremendous drought meant far fewer storms, which not only shut off the spigot on rain but on storm cells that spawned tornadoes.

Hail Storm Pelts Texas Town

Becky Kellogg Published: Apr 3, 2013, 7:15 AM EDT weather.com http://www.weather.com/news/texas-hail-storm-20130403

Hitchcock, Tex.

Windows were blown out at homes and business in Hitchcock, Tex. in the early morning hours of Wed., April 3 after massive hail pelted the area. (Courtesy: Mark Boyle/KPRC)

Softball-sized hail rained down on a community in Texas in the early morning hours of Wed., April 3 leaving significant damage in its wake.  The hail shattered windows in buildings and cars in Hitchcock, Tex.

Play Video

Texas-Sized Hail Pounds Homes

The Hitchcock, Texas Police Dept. says 7 of its 11 police cars were seriously damaged by the hail.  Several trailer parks also sustained heavy damaged as well as a church and fire station.
(More:  Hail is an Underrated Danger) 
A spokesperson for the Hitchcock, Tex. Police Dept. told The Weather Channel that she was inundated with calls to 911 about the hail storm.  At one point, she says she couldn't hear people on the phone because hail was pounding the roof of the police station so violently.
There is still a threat of isolated damaging hail and winds in Texas today.  The storm front that produced this hail will linger from Texas and across the Gulf States through Thursday but will produce mostly rain.

March 2013 Tornadoes: Fewest in Decades

Jon Erdman Published: Apr 3, 2013, 2:48 PM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/march-tornadoes-fewest-20130330

The persistent, stubborn March cold in the Plains, South and East has had at least one benefit.
March 2013 was one of the least tornadic Marches in the U.S. in decades.
In preliminary data through March 31, only 17 tornadoes have been tallied across the nation in March 2013, according to Severe Weather Expert, Dr. Greg Forbes (Facebook | Twitter).  

If this preliminary total holds up, this would be the lowest March U.S. tornado count in 35 years, since only 17 tornadoes were counted in March 1978.  The last March with a lower U.S. tornado tally was 1969, with only 8 U.S. tornadoes.
March 2012 couldn't have been more different, nearly doubling the monthly average with 154 tornadoes, punctuated by the Mar. 2-3 outbreak, heavily damaging the towns of W. Liberty, Ky. and Henryville, Ind., among others.
(MORE:  Mar. 2-3, 2012 outbreak recap)
This low count in March 2013 is particularly impressive given today's technology, such as Doppler radar, smartphones and social media, as well as a more expansive spotter network.
Weak tornadoes are much less likely to go undetected today compared to past years. This contributes to rising tornado counts compared to past decades, a concept called "tornado inflation".
Incidentally, a quiet March often doesn't portend a quiet April or May.
Only 75 March tornadoes, slightly below the 10-year average of 98 tornadoes, touched down in March 2011.  Then, all hell broke loose in April 2011, with a monthly record 758 U.S. tornadoes

News

Severe Threat this Week: Texas to Gulf Coast

Published: Apr 2, 2013, 1:01 PM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-severe/severe-weather-tracker

A new storm system will track from Texas and Oklahoma to the Southeast coast through Friday with soaking rainfall and a threat of severe thunderstorms. Below is a day-by-day look at the forecast:

Tuesday Threat

Wednesday Threat

Thursday Threat

(NOW: Interactive radar, watches/warnings for today's threat zone)

• Tuesday - Scattered severe storms are possible in parts of southern Texas. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, however an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
• Wednesday - A slight chance of severe thunderstorms in southern Texas.
• Thursday - As the storm system heads east on Thursday, the risk of severe storms will increase along the immediate Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to northern/central Florida and southern Georgia. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns, however a few tornadoes are also possible.
• Friday - The threat of severe storms may linger along parts of the Southeast coast and in the Florida Peninsula.

You can find more details on the severe thunderstorm and tornado risk, including the extended forecast, on our TOR:CON index page at this link.
We have all the maps you need to track severe weather below, watches and warnings, and radar.
We also have links to see what your typical climatological tornado risk is, as well as links to our iWitness photo/video galleries and our Notify! severe alerts service.

No April Fools' Joke: Another Cold Blast

Chris Dolce Published: Apr 2, 2013, 6:33 PM EDT weather.com

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/april-fools-cold-plunge-20130328

Shivering Start to April

Wednesday Highs

Thursday Highs

April has been off to a chilly start across much of the central and northern U.S., with below-average temperatures from the Midwest to the Northeast and parts of the Southern Plains.
Below-average temperatures will persist into Wednesday in much of the East and South.
Rain-cooled air will keep a blob of 40s and low 50s for highs across the Southern Plains, even as folks much farther north (Billings, Rapid City) rebound to upper 60s and low 70s.
And Thursday will be an ugly surprise for those not paying attention to the forecast -- a large area of rain across the South will push temperatures even farther below average in Atlanta and Charlotte. Readings may struggle to get much above 50 on Thursday along that stretch of I-85.
(FORECAST LOWS: Thursday morning)
For warm-weather lovers, though, time is on your side: ultimately, a much warmer pattern has to take over, and that looks to happen during the second week of April.