Death Toll from Typhoon Bopha Nears 300

Compostela Valley, Philippines

Associated Press

In this photo taken Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2012 and released by the Philippine Army, a soldier of the 71st Infantry Battalion, 1001st Infantry Brigade of the Philippine Army carries a boy along a flooded area.

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NEW BATAAN, Philippines -- Stunned parents searching for missing children examined a row of mud-stained bodies covered with banana leaves while survivors dried their soaked belongings on roadsides Wednesday, a day after a powerful typhoon killed more than 280 people in the southern Philippines.
Officials fear more bodies may be found as rescuers reach hard-hit areas that were isolated by landslides, floods and downed communications.
(INTERACTIVE: Latest Forecast Track)
At least 151 people died in the worst-hit province of Compostela Valley when Typhoon Bopha lashed the region Tuesday, including 78 villagers and soldiers who perished in a flash flood that swamped two emergency shelters and a military camp, provincial spokeswoman Fe Maestre said.
About 80 people survived the deluge in New Bataan town with injuries, but between 50 and 319 others remain missing, according to varying estimates by government officials and the army.
The farming town of 45,000 people was a muddy wasteland of collapsed houses and coconut and banana trees felled by Bopha's ferocious winds.

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Raw Video: Bopha Tragedy Grows

On a roadside, dozens of mud-stained bodies were laid side-by-side, covered by cloth and banana leaves and surrounded by villagers. A man sprayed insecticide on the remains to keep away swarms of flies.
A father wept when he lifted a plastic cover and found the body of his child. A mother, meanwhile, went away in tears, unable to find her missing children. "I have three children," she said repeatedly, flashing three fingers before a TV cameraman.
Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, who visited the devastated town, said a day of searching by soldiers and volunteers did not turn up any of the 319 people reported missing in New Bataan.
"These were whole families among the registered missing," Roxas told the ABS-CBN TV network. "Entire families may have been washed away."
In nearby Davao Oriental, the coastal province first struck by the typhoon as it blew inland from the Pacific Ocean, at least 115 people perished, mostly in three towns that were so battered that it was hard to find any buildings with roofs remaining, provincial officer Freddie Bendulo and other officials said.
"We had a problem where to take the evacuees. All the evacuation centers have lost their roofs," Davao Oriental Gov. Corazon Malanyaon said.
(MORE:  Expert Blog on Typhoon Bopha | Current Conditions)
Disaster-response agencies reported 13 other typhoon-related deaths elsewhere.
Unlike the previous day's turbulent weather, the sun was shining brightly Wednesday, prompting residents to lay their soaked clothes, books and other belongings out on roadsides to dry and revealing the extent of the damage to farmland. Thousands of banana trees in one Compostela Valley plantation were toppled by the wind, the young bananas still wrapped in blue plastic covers.
After slamming into Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley, Bopha roared quickly across the southern Mindanao and central regions, knocking out power in two entire provinces, triggering landslides and leaving houses and plantations damaged. More than 170,000 fled to evacuation centers.
The typhoon, one of the strongest to hit the country this year, had blown past southwestern Palawan province into the South China Sea by midday Wednesday and could head to either Vietnam or southern China, according to government forecasters.
The deaths came despite efforts by President Benigno Aquino III's government to force residents out of high-risk communities as the typhoon approached.
Some 20 typhoons and storms lash the northern and central Philippines each year, but they rarely hit the vast southern Mindanao region.
A rare storm in the south last December killed more than 1,200 people and left many more homeless.
The United States extended its condolences and offered to help its Asian ally deal with the typhoon's devastation. It praised government efforts to minimize the deaths and damage.

http://www.weather.com/news/typhoon-bopha-20121203

At Climate Talks, U.N. Chief Rejects Warming Doubts

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AP Photo/Osama Faisal

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon addresses the opening of the high-level segment of the annual U.N. climate talks involving environment ministers and climate officials from nearly 200 countries, in Doha, Qatar, on Dec. 4.

DOHA, Qatar — Pointing to the destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy and other weather disasters this year, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told an international climate conference Tuesday that it was time to "prove wrong" those who still have doubts about global warming.
Ban, addressing delegates at the annual U.N. climate talks, said time is running out for governments to act, citing recent reports showing rising emissions of greenhouse gases, which most scientists say are causing the warming trend.
"The abnormal is the new normal," Ban told environment ministers and climate officials from nearly 200 countries. "This year we have seen Manhattan and Beijing under water, hundreds of thousands of people washed from their homes in Colombia, Peru, the Philippines, Australia."
"The danger signs are all around," he said, noting that ice caps are melting, permafrost thawing and sea levels rising.

AP Photo/Osama Faisal

Qatari activists hold a banner as they march with local and international activists to demand urgent action to address climate change at this week's U.N. climate talks in Doha, Qatar.

Delegates at the two-week talks that are set to end Friday are discussing future emissions cuts and climate aid to poor countries, issues that rich nations and the developing world have struggled to agree on for years.
(MORE: Sandy Stirs Climate Change Debate)
In Doha, developing countries have criticized richer nations for not promising higher emissions cuts and not giving any firm commitments on how they plan to scale up climate aid to $100 billion by 2020, a pledge they made three years ago.
Ban told reporters after his speech that richer countries, including the U.S., "should take leadership" on climate change because they have the resources and technology to address the problem.
On Tuesday, Britain announced two initiatives to support renewable energy in Africa and a water management program that it said would help 18 million poor people become more resilient to climate change. The initiatives, totaling 133 million pounds ($214 million) over the next three years, were welcomed by climate activists.
"At last, a developed country has finally made a pledge for future climate finance here in Doha," Oxfam Climate Change Policy Advisor Tracy Carty said, but noted that the details remain "hazy."
At a side event earlier Tuesday, Ban said the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy in the Caribbean and the U.S. east coast should be a wake-up call, showing "that before it's too late, we have to take action."
Climate scientists say it's difficult to link a single weather event to global warming but some say the damage caused by Sandy was worse because of rising sea levels.
A small minority of scientists still question whether the warming seen in recent decades is due to human activities, such as the carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.
"Let us avoid all the skepticism. Let us prove wrong all these doubts on climate change," Ban said.
Climate scientists have already observed changes including melting Arctic ice and permafrost, rising sea levels and acidification of the ocean, shifting rainfall patterns with impacts on floods and droughts.
(MORE: New Study Links Current Events to Climate Change)
Low-lying Pacific island states, in particular, are losing shoreline to rising seas, expanding from heat and the runoff of melting land ice.
Governments represented at the Doha conference have started talks on crafting a new global climate treaty that would take effect in 2020. They are also discussing how to rein in greenhouse gas emissions before then, partly by extending the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty limiting the emissions of most industrialized countries that expires this year.
The U.S. never joined Kyoto, because it didn't cover emerging economies such as India and China, which now has the world's highest carbon emissions.
With only a few days remaining to agree on the Kyoto extension and other issues, the head of the U.N. climate change secretariat, Christiana Figueres, reminded the delegates that the "eyes of the world" are upon them.
"Present and future generations are counting on you," she said.

 http://www.weather.com/news/un-chief-rejects-global-warming-doubts-20121204

Sandy vs. the Bounty: Battling an Unstoppable Force

U.S. Coast Guard via Getty Images

In this handout image supplied by the US Coast Guard, The HMS Bounty, a 180-foot sailboat, is submerged in the Atlantic Ocean during Hurricane Sandy approximately 90 miles southeast of Hatteras, North Carolina, on October 29, 2012.

In the early-morning hours of Monday, Oct. 29, Coast Guard Lieutenant Jane Peña was wrapping up her final hours of a shift on Base Elizabeth City when a call came in, ordering one of the most dangerous missions of her career.
The HMS Bounty, a 180-foot-long replica tall ship built for the movie Mutiny on the Bounty, was sinking off the coast of North Carolina. The ship was destined for St. Petersburg, Fla., but it became a victim of Hurricane Sandy's fury that churned up the seas. The Bounty was being shredded by the 900-mile-wide superstorm, and the 16 people aboard were calling out for help.
"Originally, the first information that we got was that they'd be able to make it until morning ... so, originally, we weren't supposed to fly on it," said Peña, a 31-year-old Coast Guard veteran who had roughly a year of experience in flying the Jayhawk helicopter they would use for the rescue. "We were going to bring in a fresh crew and be there in the light and get everyone off in an orderly fashion.
"Then, we received a call at 4 or 4:30 in the morning that they had abandoned ship and they were in the water."
(MORE: Hazards Galore in Sandy Disaster Zones)

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HMS Bounty Survior Stories

Fighting sustained tailwinds of nearly 60 mph, heavy rain and no visibility while wearing night-vision goggles to see in the pre-dawn darkness, Peña co-piloted one of the most intense rides of her life. It took approximately 60 minutes to arrive at the scene of the sinking ship. Thoughts raced through her head during that turbulent, tumultuous hour.
"For me, that was actually the scariest part of it, because we couldn't see anything," said Peña. "We're flying into the hurricane. We were already talking about our fuel and calculating what we'd need on the way back ... for me, this was my first big case, so I was really just hoping that I would not let anyone down."
Once the Jayhawk arrived at the scene, the Coast Guard crew saw chaos. The ship was listing heavily while four life rafts drifted around in the 10- to 30-foot waves. Two of those rafts contained members of the Bounty's crew, holding on for their lives, and at least one person was floating in the ocean, unable to climb on to any of the rafts. The ocean's current forced the victims in the opposite direction of the wind, making the rescue even more difficult.
"You can't sing the praises enough," said Christopher Barksdale, an engineer and survivor of the Bounty. "It's very comforting to hear that helicopter and see (the rescue swimmer)."
(MORE: Dreamliner Forced to Make Emergency Landing)
While the rescue swimmer went to work, pulling as many victims as possible to safety, Peña's role as co-pilot was to keep the helicopter as close to the water as safely possible. During the mission, the Jayhawk flew 300 feet off the water, and hovered between 20 and 60 feet above the waves while the rescues were executed. Peña monitored the altitude of the helicopter to ensure they were high enough off the water to prevent a rogue wave from clipping the Jayhawk.
"There were challenges to overcome, certainly, but as far as going out there and pulling them up, it's what we train for," she said.
Fourteen of 16 people aboard the Bounty would be saved -- five by Peña's helicopter and nine more by a second Jayhawk that arrived at the scene less than 30 minutes into the mission. A C-130 was also in the sky to assist with locating the victims in the water. Capt. Robin Walbridge, 63, and Claudene Christian, 42, were missing during the rescue and perished at the scene.

“It's very comforting to hear that helicopter and see (the rescue swimmer).”

Christopher Barksdale, Survivor

"There was never any panic involved," said Barksdale. "What goes through your mind in something like that, it's something I've never experienced before, is just trying to stay focused on the job at hand."
Due to strong headwinds, the crew turned back toward land and made the two-hour journey to the base with their five survivors aboard. Peña, who'd always dreamed of being an aircraft pilot and finally realized her calling after meeting and marrying her husband (also a member of the Coast Guard), had successfully and safely completed her mission in some of the most violent weather conditions seen off the coast of North Carolina in the past few years.
"I am fairly junior -- I've only been qualified just over a year -- but the guys with a lot more experience than me say this is about as big and as crazy as it will ever get in your career. To go into a hurricane, 14 people in the water, waves just coming from everywhere. It was certainly an extreme situation.

http://www.weather.com/news/hms-bounty-rescue-20121204

Drenched Northern California gets more rain

Marcio Jose Sanchez  /  AP

A worker from Pacific General Engineering works to clear the damage on the road caused by overflow water from Lafayette Creek in Lafayette, Calif., Tuesday, Dec. 4, 2012. Just as Northern California residents recovered from a series of wet, windy storms, another system on the way is expected to drench the area. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

By TERRY COLL

 

SAN FRANCISCO — A new storm system made its way Tuesday through already drenched Northern California, prompting renewed flood concerns in parts of the region.

Rain had been falling along the coast and inland areas, but the heaviest rain was expected early Wednesday. Coastal mountains could see as much as six inches of precipitation before the storm moves out on Wednesday, the National Weather Service said.
Other areas may only see an inch or so.
Forecasters were not expecting weather as severe as the series of storms that rocked the region over a five-day period that ended Sunday.
"The winds will be much lighter than over the weekend. The rainfall amounts will also be lower," meteorologist Holly Osbourne said.
She called the latest storm a warm system, meaning snow levels will be relatively high at around 8,000 to 9,000 feet.
The National Weather Service issued a weather outlook for far Northern California, but despite saturated ground from the previous storms that dumped 15 to 20 inches of rain in some areas, forecasters said larger rivers in the region were expected to remain below flood stage.
The storm on Sunday dropped as much as an inch of rain an hour in some areas while toppling trees, causing flash flooding to roadways and knocking out power. Rivers across Northern California swelled from the deluge but mostly stayed within their banks.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/50085813/ns/weather/#.UL-iAYZf2So

Typhoon Bopha kills at least 283; 'entire families were washed away'

MANILA, Philippines -- Blocked roads and severed communications in the southern Philippines frustrated rescuers on Wednesday as teams searched for hundreds of people missing after the strongest typhoon this year killed at least 283 people.
Stunned parents searched for missing children while officials warned the death toll from Typhoon Bopha would likely rise.
Hardest hit was the southern island of Mindanao, where Bopha made landfall on Tuesday. It triggered landslides and floods along the coast and in farming and mining towns inland.
Interior Minister Manuel Roxas said 300 people were missing.
"Entire families were washed away," Roxas told reporters.
On a roadside, dozens of mud-stained bodies were laid side-by-side, covered by cloth and banana leaves and surrounded by villagers. A man sprayed insecticide on the remains to keep away swarms of flies.
A father wept when he lifted a plastic cover and found the body of his child. A mother, meanwhile, went away in tears, unable to find her missing children. "I have three children," she said repeatedly, flashing three fingers before a TV cameraman.
Most affected areas were cut off by destroyed roads and collapsed bridges, and army search-and-rescue teams were being flown in by helicopter.
Thousands of people were in shelters and officials appealed for food, water and clothing. Dozens of domestic flights were suspended on Wednesday.
PhotoBlog: Grief amid Bopha's destruction
The governor of the worst-hit province, Compostela Valley in Mindanao,  said waves of water and mud came crashing down mountains and swept through schools, town halls and clinics where huddled residents had sought shelter.
The death toll in the province stood at 160. In nearby Davao Oriental province, where Bopha made landfall, 110 people were killed.

Karlos Manlupig / AFP - Getty Images

Residents walk amongst their destroyed houses after Typhoon Bopha hit the town of Compostela on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao on Tuesday.

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"The waters came so suddenly and unexpectedly, and the winds were so fierce," the Compostela Valley governor, Arthur Uy, told Reuters by telephone.
He said irrigation reservoirs on top of mountains had given way sending large volumes of water down to the valleys. Torrential rain often triggers landslides down slopes stripped of their forest cover.
Corn farmer Jerry Pampusa, 42, and his pregnant wife were marooned in their hut but survived.
"We were very scared," Pampus said. "We felt we were on an island because there was water everywhere."
Another survivor, Francisco Alduiso, said dozens of women and children who had taken shelter in a village center, had been swept away.
"We found some of the bodies about 10 kilometers (6 miles) away," Alduiso told Reuters. The only building left standing in his village was the school.
Another survivor, Julius Julian Rebucas, said his mother and brother disappeared in a flash flood.
"I no longer have a family," a stunned Rebucas said.
An army commander said two dozen people had been pulled from the mud in one area and were being treated in hospital.
About 20 typhoons hit the Philippines every year, often causing death and destruction.
Almost exactly a year ago, Typhoon Washi killed 1,500 people in Mindanao.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/05/15692179-typhoon-bopha-kills-at-least-283-entire-families-were-washed-away?lite

Forecasting Flu Outbreaks with Weather Technology

Flu season often coincides with winter months as it has been found that the influenza virus lasts longer in cold, dry air. Knowing this, researchers have developed a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks using a technique used for weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates can make quantitative forecasting possible.

Scientists at Columbia University and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have announced a new system that adapts techniques used in modern weather prediction to generate local forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks. By predicting the timing and severity of the outbreaks, the system can eventually help health officials and the general public better prepare for them.
Each year, flu season peaks at various times from region to region. Pinpointing the outbreaks with the new forecast system can provide "a window into what can happen week to week as flu prevalence rises and falls," says lead author Jeffrey Shaman, an assistant professor of Environmental Health Sciences at Columbia's Mailman School of Public Health.
Shaman and co-author Alicia Karspeck, an NCAR scientist, used web-based estimates of flu-related sickness from the winters of 2003—04 to 2008—09 in New York City to generate weekly flu forecasts. Consequently, researchers found that the technique could predict the peak timing of the outbreak more than seven weeks in advance of the actual peak.
Karspeck says, "One exciting element of this work is that we've applied quantitative forecasting techniques developed within the geosciences community to the challenge of real-time infectious disease prediction. This has been a tremendously fruitful cross-disciplinary collaboration."
In the U.S. alone, influenza kills about 35,000 people each year, so predicting flu outbreaks according to weather predictions of specific regions could allow us to limit the number of influenza cases and therefore help save lives. For example, a flu forecast could influence individuals to get a vaccine, stress caution when around people who exude flu-like symptoms, and create awareness for monitoring one's own health.
For health personnel, the forecast could help inform decision-makers on how many vaccines and antiviral drugs to stockpile, and prompt office or school closures if necessary.
Making this information accessible to the public either online or broadcast on local news stations during weather segments, as Shaman suggests, will allow for increased preparedness of flu outbreaks.

http://www.enn.com/climate/spotlight/45267

BP Pleads Guilty to Criminal Charges in Gulf Oil Spill

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana, November 15, 2012 (ENS) - Oil giant BP has agreed to pay the U.S. government more than $4 billion to settle criminal charges stemming from the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Today in New Orleans the Justice Department charged BP with 14 criminal actions including, 11 counts of felony manslaughter, one count of felony obstruction of Congress, and violations of the Clean Water and Migratory Bird Treaty Acts in connection with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill that began in April 2010.
On April 20, BP's Macondo well blew out, engulfing the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in flames and spewing five million barrels of oil into the Gulf over three months until the well, about 40 miles southeast of the Mississippi Delta, was finally capped.
BP has agreed to plead guilty to all 14 criminal charges, admitting responsibility for the deaths of 11 people and the events that led to the largest environmental disaster in U.S. history.
Announcing the agreement, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said, "This marks both the single largest criminal fine, more than $1.25 billion, and the single largest total criminal resolution, $4 billion, in the history of the United States."
"It stands as a testament to the hard work of countless investigators, attorneys, support staff members, and other personnel - from the Deepwater Horizon Task Force and a range of federal, state, and local agencies - who have worked tirelessly to advance a complex and wide-ranging investigation that began even before the oil well was capped," said Holder.
BP will pay the criminal penalty in installments over a period of five years.
Under the terms of the agreement, nearly $2.4 billion of the criminal recovery funds will go towards environmental restoration, preservation, and conservation efforts throughout the Gulf coast region, including barrier-island creation and river diversion projects in Louisiana.
The $2.394 billion will go to the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, an independent nonprofit conservation group chartered by Congress, which will oversee use of the funds to maximize benefits for fish and wildlife habitats along Gulf Coast.
"We will work collaboratively with government and private sector stakeholders to ensure these funds are spent effectively and transparently to achieve the best possible outcomes for the Gulf ecosystem, consistent with the terms of the settlement," said Jeff Trandahl, executive director and CEO of the Foundation. "To achieve this, we will rely heavily on our established, science-based strategy for identifying and selecting appropriate projects to receive funding, all aimed at ensuring a healthy future for our country's richest marine ecosystem."
An additional $350 million will be used to develop state-of-the art oil spill prevention and response technologies, education, research, and training. And more than $1 billion will go to the U.S. Coast Guard's Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, to be available for cleanup and compensation for those affected by oil spills in the Gulf and throughout the United States.
In addition, the agreement resolves all securities claims with the Securities and Exchange Commission with a $525 million penalty paid in installments over a period of three years.
As part of its guilty plea, BP will retain for four years a monitor who will oversee safety, risk management and equipment maintenance in relation to deepwater drilling in the Gulf, as well as an independent auditor who will conduct annual reviews to ensure compliance with the terms of this agreement.
"The company will also hire an ethics monitor to improve its code of conduct and foster robust cooperation with the government," said Holder.
Bob Dudley, BP Group chief executive, apologized and expressed contrition for the disastrous spill that spewed oil into the Gulf for three months, fouling the coastlines of five states and closing most of the Gulf to fishing for months.
"All of us at BP deeply regret the tragic loss of life caused by the Deepwater Horizon accident as well as the impact of the spill on the Gulf coast region," said Dudley. "From the outset, we stepped up by responding to the spill, paying legitimate claims and funding restoration efforts in the Gulf. We apologize for our role in the accident, and as today's resolution with the U.S. government further reflects, we have accepted responsibility for our actions."
But the Justice Department's investigation is not over, said Holder, and while the criminal charges against the company were settled by today's agreement, criminal charges against individuals as well as civil charges are expected.
Holder said that in addition to the charges filed against BP, a federal grand jury returned an indictment charging the two highest-ranking BP supervisors who were on board the Deepwater Horizon on the day of the explosion with 23 criminal counts - including 11 counts of seaman's manslaughter, 11 counts of involuntary manslaughter, and alleged violations of the Clean Water Act.
The grand jury also charged a former BP executive - who served as a deputy incident commander and BP's second-highest ranking representative at Unified Command during the spill response - with hiding information from Congress and allegedly lying to law enforcement officials.
"These and other matters remain open, including a separate civil action that's pending in federal court here in New Orleans," Holder said. "We're looking forward to the trial - which is scheduled to begin in February of next year - in which we intend to prove that BP was grossly negligent in causing the oil spill. In that lawsuit, we are seeking civil penalties and a judgment that BP and others are liable for removal costs and natural resource damages - exposure that could amount to billions of dollars."
Today's settlement will increase BP's existing $38.1 billion charge against income related to the Deepwater Horizon spill to increase by approximately $3.85 billion, the company said in a statement.
BP's Chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg said, "We believe this resolution is in the best interest of BP and its shareholders. It removes two significant legal risks and allows us to vigorously defend the company against the remaining civil claims."
"Though we have been unable to date to resolve the civil case, we remain as determined as ever to hold those responsible accountable," Holder said.
Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune called the criminal settlement "a slap on the wrist" and said, "The people of the Gulf of Mexico have yet to be served a meaningful justice."
"The deadly explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, which killed eleven workers and spewed five million barrels of crude oil into the Gulf, was no accident. It was the result of criminal negligence by BP.
"The Sierra Club is working to make sure that the remaining civil Clean Water Act and Oil Pollution Act lawsuits will result in penalties topping $60 billion, which better reflects the harm BP inflicted on the Gulf. We urge the Department of Justice to pursue the remaining legal charges vigorously, and bring BP to justice for their crimes against Gulf families and businesses."

http://www.whptv.com/news/environmental/story/BP-Pleads-Guilty-to-Criminal-Charges-in-Gulf-Oil/zPhhmmWPWk-DZDG2gTGnww.cspx

Global Climate Emissions 'Gap' Widens, Rescue Still Possible

LONDON, UK, November 23, 2012 (ENS) - Actions to limit climate change must be immediately scaled up and accelerated if the world is to have any chance of keeping a global temperature rise below two degrees Celsius this century, finds a new scientific report released just before countries meet for their annual climate negotiations.
Current pledges of climate action by governments will result in a 3 to 5° C temperature rise this century without fast action, according to the report.
Greenhouse gas emissions levels are now 14 percent above where they need to be in 2020, warns the "Emissions Gap Report," coordinated by the UN Environment Programme and the European Climate Foundation and released today in cities around the world.
Instead of declining, concentrations of gases like carbon dioxide, CO2, are increasing in the atmosphere - up around 20 percent since 2000, finds the report, written by 55 scientists from 22 countries.
"We are actively moving in the wrong direction," UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner told reporters on a teleconference Wednesday, "The world has broken the speed limit even though it knows a T-junction is ahead."
When government leaders gather in Doha, Qatar next week for the annual UN climate negotiations, the report warns that if they do not act quickly, emissions will be at 58 gigatonnes (Gt) by 2020.
But global greenhouse gas emissions must be no more than 44 Gt in 2020 to lay the groundwork for the even bigger reductions needed to keep the world on the path to a two degree temperature increase, according to the scientists who wrote the current Emissions Gap report and the parallel UNEP assessments of 2010 and 2011.
This difference between the 44 Gt emissions level needed in 2020 to avoid the worst consequences of climate change and the projected level of 58 Gt is known as the emissions gap.
The Emissions Gap Report 2012 points out that even if the most ambitious level of pledges and commitments were implemented by all countries - and under the strictest set of rules - there will now be a gap of eight Gt of CO2 equivalent by 2020.
This is two gigatonnes higher than last year's assessment.
Inaction will trigger costs likely to be at least 10 to 15 percent higher after 2020 if emission reductions are delayed into the following decades.
"There are two realities encapsulated in this report," said Steiner.
First, he said, "Bridging the gap remains do-able with existing technologies and policies."
"There are many inspiring actions taking place at the national level on energy efficiency in buildings, investing in forests to avoid emissions linked with deforestation and new vehicle emissions standards alongside a remarkable growth in investment in new renewable energies worldwide, which in 2011 totaled close to US$260 billion," Steiner said.
"Yet the sobering fact remains that a transition to a low carbon, inclusive Green Economy is happening far too slowly and the opportunity for meeting the 44 Gt target is narrowing annually," he warned.
In a teleconference with reporters from around the world Steiner said, "What we are seeing right now is alarming, but underneath is growing evidence that transformational shifts can occur."
In Doha, governments that are party to the world's only climate treaty, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, will attempt to agree on a legally binding global climate deal that can be finalized by 2015 and take effect in 2020.
These talks are known as COP18, which stands for the 18th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC.
Steiner said while these negotiations are underway there is a wide range of complementary voluntary measures that can that can bridge the gap between ambition and reality right now.
"While governments work to negotiate a new international climate agreement to come into effect in 2020, they urgently need to put their foot firmly on the action pedal by fulfilling financial, technology transfer and other commitments under the UN climate convention treaties," said the UNEP chief.
There are potentially large emissions reductions possible from sectors such as buildings, power generation and transport that can more than bridge the gap by 2020, the report points out. Improved building codes, fuel standards for vehicles and avoided deforestation can help.
UNFCCC Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres said, "This report is a reminder that time is running out, but that the technical means and the policy tools to allow the world to stay below a maximum two degrees Celsius are still available to governments and societies."
"Governments meeting in Doha for COP18 now need to urgently implement existing decisions which will allow for a swifter transition towards a low-carbon and resilient world," said Figueres.
"This notably means amending the Kyoto Protocol, developing a clear vision of how greenhouse gases can be curbed globally before and after 2020, and completing the institutions required to help developing countries green their economies and adapt, along with defining how the long-term climate finance that developing countries need can be mobilized," said Figueres.
"In addition, governments need to urgently identify how ambition can be raised," she said.
Bridging the Gap
The report looked at sectors where the necessary emissions reductions may be possible by 2020.
The greatest reductions could come from improved energy efficiency in industry, which could deliver cuts of between 1.5 to 4.6 Gt of CO2 equivalent, the report finds - followed by, in decreasing order: agriculture, 1.1 to 4.3 Gt; forestry 1.3 to 4.2 Gt; the power sector, 2.2 to 3.9 Gt; buildings 1.4 to 2.9 Gt; transportation 1.7 to 2.5 Gt, and the waste sector 0.8 Gt.
Some sectors have even bigger potential over the long term. Boosting the energy efficiency of buildings could deliver average reductions of around 2.1 Gt by 2020 but cuts of over 9 Gt by 2050.
"This implies that by 2050 the building sector could consume 30 percent less electricity compared to 2005 despite a close to 130 percent projected increase in built floor area over the same period," the report states.
If this is to happen, the report says, "State of the art building codes may need to become mandatory in the next 10 years in all of the major economies such as the United States, India, China and the European Union."
Further emission reductions are possible from more energy efficient appliances and lighting systems.
Potential emissions reductions from the transportation sector are assessed at two Gt of CO2 equivalent by 2020.
The report notes that there is already a shift with the eight biggest multilateral development banks at the recent Rio+20 Summit pledging US$175 billion over the next decade for measures such as bus rapid transit systems.
Combinations of improved vehicle standards and programs to scrap old vehicles can help.
The report says approved and proposed new standards in seven countries including Australia, China, the European Union, South Korea and the United States are expected to reduce fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of new light-duty vehicles by over 50 percent by 2025 from 2000 levels.
"Although it remained under-utilized, "avoided deforestation" is considered a low cost greenhouse gas emissions reductions option," says the report.
Policies to assist in reducing deforestation and, thus, greenhouse gas emissions, include establishing protected areas such as national parks to economic instruments such as taxes, subsidies and payments for ecosystem services.
The report cites Brazil where a combination of conservation policies and reduction in agricultural commodity prices has led to a decrease in deforestation by three quarters since 2004, avoiding 2.8 Gt of CO2 equivalent between 2006 and 2011.
Protected areas in Costa Rica now represent over as fifth of its territory, avoiding deforestation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and triggering a rise in tourism.

http://www.whptv.com/news/environmental/story/Global-Climate-Emissions-Gap-Widens-Rescue-Still/b0UGncq0IkeHm7LgDRCx4Q.cspx

Weather experts warn of second huge storm to hit length and breadth of UK

A second hurricane-strength storm is heading for the UK and this time the entire country looks set to suffer.
Forecasters say the next severe storm is now brewing in the North Atlantic and will bring with it cold air, snow and sleet as well as hurricane-strength winds from Monday evening.

They say next week's massive storm will affect the whole of the UK and will last through the whole of Tuesday and into Wednesday.
Weather experts say they cannot officially classify the storms as hurricanes because the severe weather systems have a cold core instead of a warm core, but the wind speeds are the same and they still carry the same destructive power.
Weather expert Tim Ballisty, a meteorologist at weather.com, said: "There are two main computer models that we use to forecast the weather and both are showing an intense area of low pressure that will swing in across the North Atlantic on Monday, last all day Tuesday and into Wednesday."
Tim described how the huge weather system will "stall out" over the UK and the forecasts show the area of low pressure, that brings severe winds and rain, will deepen and intensify across the whole of the UK and across to the west coast of France.
He explained: "What is interesting about this next storm is that the huge weather system that slammed into Scotland on Thursday was very constrained, its damage was limited to Scotland.
"However, next week's storm looks likely to cover the whole of the UK, it is tremendously wide and has a much broader scope to it.
"The winds may not be nudging 150mph again but it will certainly produce the same destructive power as Thursday's storm."

http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/43689

Hurricane Sandy in 3-D from NASA Images

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, or TRMM satellite can measure rainfall rates and cloud heights in tropical cyclones, and was used to create an image to look into Hurricane Sandy on Oct. 28, 2012. Owen Kelly of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. created this image of Hurricane Sandy using TRMM data.

At 2:20 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Oct. 28, Hurricane Sandy was a marginal category 1 hurricane and its eyewall is modest, as TRMM reveals, which gives forecasters and scientists hints about its possible future strength.
The eyewall appeared somewhat compact with its 40 km (24.8 miles) diameter The eyewall contained only relatively light precipitation, and none of Sandy's eyewall storm cells managed to burst through, or even reach, the tropopause which has about a 10 km (6.2 miles) height at mid-latitudes. Evidence of the weak updrafts in the eyewall comes from the fact that the TRMM radar's reflectivity stayed under 40 dBZ, a commonly cited signal strength at which updrafts can be vigorous enough to form hail and to lift smaller ice particles up through the tropopause and into the stratosphere.
But placed in context, the TRMM-observed properties of Hurricane Sandy's eyewall are evidence of remarkable vigor. Most hurricanes only have well-formed and compact eyewalls at category 3 strength or higher. Sandy was not only barely a category 1 hurricane, but Sandy was also experiencing strong wind shear, Sandy was going over ocean typically too cold to form hurricanes, and Sandy had been limping along as a marginal hurricane for several days.
Kelley said, "With infrared satellite observations used in imagery one can speculate about what the sort of convective (rising air that form the thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone) storms are developing under the hurricane's cloud tops, but Sandy was sneaking up the East Coast too far out at sea for land-based radars to provide definitive observations of the rain regions inside of the hurricane's clouds." The radar on the TRMM satellite could provide this missing information during this overflight of Hurricane Sandy.
The TRMM satellite also showed that the super-sized rainband that extended to the west and north of the center did contain vigorous storm cells, as indicated by the red regions of radar reflectivity in excess of 40 dBZ. This rainband is expected to lash the coast well before the hurricane's center make landfall. Even further west, at the upper left corner of the image, one can see two small storm cells. These storm cells are the southern-most tip of the independent weather system that is coming across the United States and that is expected to merge and possibly reinvigorate the remnants of Hurricane Sandy.
Satellite image of Sandy courtesy NASA.

http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/45156

Seeing Storms Through the SMOS Eye

When millions of people are bracing themselves for the onslaught of extreme weather, as much information as possible is needed to predict the strength of any impending storm. As its name suggests, the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite was designed to measure how much moisture is held in soil and how much salt is held in the surface waters of the oceans. Since SMOS has the ability to see through clouds and it is little affected by rain, it can also provide reliable estimates of the surface wind speeds under intense storms. This can be quite useful in tracking a storm system remotely and accurately.

Unusually, Sandy was a hybrid storm, tapping energy from the evaporation of seawater like a hurricane and from different air temperatures like a winter storm. These conditions generated a super storm that spanned an incredible 1800 km.

As it orbited above, the satellite intercepted parts of Hurricane Sandy at least eight times as the storm swept over Jamaica and Cuba around 25 October, until its landfall in New Jersey, US, four days later.

The data from these encounters have been used to estimate the speed of the wind over the ocean’s surface.

SMOS carries a novel microwave sensor to capture images of brightness temperature. These images correspond to radiation emitted from the surface of Earth, which are then used to derive information on soil moisture and ocean salinity.

Strong winds over oceans whip up waves and whitecaps, which in turn affect the microwave radiation being emitted from the surface. This means that although strong storms make it difficult to measure salinity, the changes in emitted radiation can, however, be linked directly to the strength of the wind over the sea.

The method was originally used during Hurricane Igor in 2010, but has again proven accurate. During Hurricane Sandy, SMOS data compare well with realtime measurements from meteorological buoys as the super storm passed between the coast of the US and the Bermuda Islands.

Moreover, NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division flew a P-3 aircraft seven times into Hurricane Sandy to gather measurements of surface wind speeds, rain and other meteorological parameters. One of these airborne campaigns coincided with an overpass of the satellite.

Keeping in mind the significantly differing sampling characteristics between the SMOS radiometer and the aircraft sensor, there was excellent agreement in the measurements. Both instruments consistently detected a wind band 150 km south of the hurricane eye, with a speed of just over 100 km/h.

Being able to measure ocean surface wind in stormy conditions with the synoptic and frequent coverage of SMOS is paramount for tracking and forecasting hurricane strength.

http://www.enn.com/sci-tech/article/45199

Arctic Permafrost Melt Threatens Climate-Infrastructure

Permafrost consists of an active layer of up to 6 feet in thickness, which thaws each summer and refreezes each winter, with permanently frozen soil beneath.

Permafrost is beginning to melt under the influence of climate change across parts of Siberia, Canada and Alaska in a trend that threatens homes, railways and oil pipelines, according to a new U.N. report. The accelerating melt is also poised to free vast amounts of carbon dioxide and methane that have been trapped in the ground for thousands of years, the U.N. Environment Program (UNEP) report cautions.
It was released at the U.N. climate talks being held in Qatar. The amount of greenhouse gases ready to seep out of the melting permafrost between now and 2100 could equal nearly 40 percent of annual emissions from human sources, the report says.
“Permafrost is one of the keys to the planet's future because it contains large stores of frozen organic matter that, if thawed and released into the atmosphere, would amplify current global warming and propel us to a warmer world,” U.N. Undersecretary General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said.
The thaw also threatens to undermine such infrastructure as bridges, roads, oil pipelines and power lines in Arctic regions.

Graph: National Snow & Ice Data Center

© MMXII Earth Environment Service

 

 http://www.earthweek.com/2012/ew121130/ew121130b.html

Northwest China Quake Damages Homes

An unspecified number of homes were damaged by a moderate quake that struck northwest China’s Xinjiang region on Monday afternoon. Authorities said no reports of injuries were received after the 5.5 magnitude tremor struck at 1:33 p.m. local time.
The quake, which struck Ruoqiang County in the Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture of Bayingolin, damaged structures in the county's Lop Nur Township, according to Liu Wenchun, secretary of the township committee of the Communist Party of China.
"Although the quake was strongly felt in the township, no casualties have been reported so far," Liu told state-run Xinhua news agency.
Only about 1,000 people live in the area have been affected by the quake.
Xinjiang is one of China's most seismically active region. But the country's most deady quake in recent years occurred in the south of Sichuan province in 2008.
That 7.9 magnitude temblor killed or left missing about 90,000 people. Among the fatalities were thousands of students whose schools collapsed during the violent shaking.

http://www.earthweek.com/2012/ew121130/ew121130f.html

Climate change will mean more malnourished children, experts warn

Extreme events, such as this year's drought in the US, could contribute to food prices more than doubling. Photograph: John Sommers/Reuters

Food prices will more than double and the number of malnourished children spiral if climate change is not checked and developing countries are not helped to adapt their farming, food and water experts warned on Tuesday at the UN climate talks in Doha.
As the UK energy secretary, Ed Davey, and ministers from 194 countries arrived for the high-level segment of the talks, the UN's Committee on World Food Security said the world would need a 75-90% increase in food production to feed the extra 2 billion people expected to be alive in 2050. But climate change could reduce yields worldwide by 5-25% over the same period.
"The poor are especially vulnerable. Climate change will increase the number of malnourished children substantially. Smallholder farmers will be particularly hard hit," said Gerald Nelson, a spokesman for the high-level panel of experts convened by the committee to report on food prospects in the coming 30 years.
Research from Oxfam suggests rice, maize and wheat prices could rise by up to 177% in the next 20 years if climate change is not checked. A combination of extreme events like the drought that affected North America this year and the Russian heatwave in 2008 could raise prices further than two decades of long-term prices, it said.
"Extreme weather means extreme prices. Our failure to slash emissions presents a future of greater food price volatility with severe consequences for the precarious lives of the people in poverty," said Tracy Carty of Oxfam. "If developing countries are left alone to deal with the impacts of climate change, we are going to see millions of people lose their lands and livelihoods. Investing in the resilience of the poorest communities is not just a matter of justice, but a smart investment in a better collective future on this small planet."
"What we are seeing already in northern Kenya and parts of Africa is food prices skyrocketing as farmers' production declines in successive droughts," said Mohamed Adow, climate adviser to Christian Aid. "The number of people is growing, putting extra stress on food production."
Frustration has grown at the Doha conference over the lack of money being offered by rich countries to help farmers adapt to a world likely to see more extreme weather and events that devastate farming. Wealthy nations have broadly emphasised the need for farming to reduce its emissions using new technologies and carbon markets, while developing countries have wanted more emphasis on help for farmers to adapt.
"African negotiators are throwing their hands up in despair, and asking why they should even bother coming to the negotiations. Their cynicism is at its most stark in the agriculture negotiations," said Seyni Nafo, spokesman for the African group in the talks.
A report from the International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (Icarda) and two other international research groups says many of the solutions to climate change and food production are available now, but increased investment and urgent action is needed.
"Many of the solutions to climate change in the dry areas are known," said Mahmoud Solh, Icarda's director general. "They range from water and land management practices to improved crop varieties, and strategies for diversifying traditional crops. The best technologies serve little purpose without a strong policy environment in which they can be put into action, financed and managed."
Bolivia and other Latin American countries with strong indigenous people movements accused rich countries of trying to "commodify" nature by encouraging carbon markets in the same way as forests with the UN's Redd (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) schemes. "It is an attack on nature and common sense that is pushing countries to commodify agriculture with carbon credits as it did with the forests through Redd+, as it intends to do with the oceans and the Earth. Agriculture provides food, give us jobs, gives us life, is the cultural, economic and social basis of our communities, our villages, our producers," said Rene Orellane, head of the Bolivian delegation at the talks. He was backed by India, Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba.
"Carbon markets for agriculture could increase income and reduce emissions. Smallholder farmers can group together to reduce emissions and have a stable income," said Nelson.
But the market approach runs counter to the spiritual beliefs of indigenous peoples. "We have a growing feeling that markets are not the answer. We do not want to put a price on nature. The conference is taking developing countries further and further down the road of markets and away from practical help," said Ariel Chavez, a spokesman for the Latin American regional office of Swedish NGO Diakonia. "We are only hearing about market mechanisms in the conference. But we know that markets are volatile and risky."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2012/dec/05/climate-change-malnourished-children

Caroline Flint: 'We have to find a way to bring the public with us on climate'

Caroline Flint, Labour's shadow secretary on energy and climate change. Photograph: Oli Scarff/Getty Images

There is a point in her constituency from which Caroline Flint can see both the chimneys of Drax and an array of wind turbines. She mentions this when I ask whether she likes a wind turbine herself (she doesn't find them "aesthetically terrible").
And then she goes on to make an interesting reference to the coal mines which pock her area of South Yorkshire. "I don't want to draw too many comparisons but 100 years ago when people came to Doncaster and said there's coal under there, well, it's interesting how 100 years later something which is providing clean green energy arouses such concern when there are many communities - including my own - who for the sake of the whole country took on the responsibility of powering the industrial revolution."
The anecdote is a little incoherent because, I think, her politician's instincts to say nothing, and to say it as often as possible, are fighting with her very passionate desire to say "Come on, get over yourselves and just get on with it!" The coal-mining history of Flint's constituency has given her an unusual perspective on what energy can mean to a community and to a country – both the good and the bad. She knows that something that is ugly can also mean jobs. And it's precisely this that makes Flint such an interesting recruit to the green cause.

I interview her in her office in Portcullis House, just over a year after Ed Miliband has appointed her shadow secretary on energy and climate change, the latest, as she points out, in a long cycle of cabinet and shadow cabinet positions. "I've been in the home office, employment, public health, and housing." (She's forgotten Europe.) She is talkative, focused, and as strikingly good-looking as ever.

She is also pretty clear about why Miliband chose her. "I knew he wanted someone who could raise the profile of the area, but also find a way we could move forward. Not just preaching, saying you can't go on holiday and all of that, but asking how do we anchor this so that people can see there's a real personal interest there, both in term of their bills, but also their jobs and their futures."

She is, she says, "a very practical person" and adds that: "trying to give people the means to help themselves is very important to me". Environmentalism of the 'deep green' variety is not her thing, and she doesn't talk about any great moment of revelation where environmental issues became important to her.
I don't get the sense of a deep knowledge and understanding of environmental issues but rather of a competent shadow secretary's mastery of her latest brief. And her voting record shows a complete lack of interest in the subject until 2005 or so (she is usually absent or abstains on green votes). But when the Stern report came out and the scientific evidence was, in her words, "captured so that you couldn't ignore it", she began to vote fiercely in favour of action and was sometimes, after that, to be found amongst that minority urging 'stronger, faster and more immediate' action at that.

To a practical mind, an issue like this is, after all, fairly simple. I ask her if she personally worries about climate change, and she exclaims "of course! My own youngest child is 24, and like all parents, I want to leave the world a better place. I joined the labour party so that I could leave the world in a better place than I inherited and for me being in politics is all about that."

And for Flint, once you've made up your mind, you just get on with it. She can't understand why the government has not, for example, included a decarbonisation target in the energy bill. To her, the government should be setting the direction of travel and naming the challenge, so that industry can rise to it. "When I was in Housing and we were setting the zero-carbon targets for housing, the construction industry was saying well, okay we don't know much about that, but we're going to get behind this. Once you have the target you have this dynamism, this energy."

The official Labour position is pro-nuclear, pro-community energy and wind, and pro-decarbonisation targets. Flint would like to see far tougher regulation, and she also favours an energy pool instead of the current system of vertically integrated companies where the large companies own the power stations and are invisibly selling to themselves. Her position is extremely close to the place where a number of green campaign groups and writers are gathering and she admits to finding Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth surprisingly sympathetic to her views.

She is pretty unimpressed by recent Tory shenanigans around the newly-published energy bill. "The protagonist-in-chief in all this seems to be George Osbourne… but you know the prime minister is David Cameron, he has invested a huge amount of personal capital into this, the husky photos and everything. Where's his leadership, where's No. 10 knocking heads together?"

Alright, she admits that there is some comedy value to it all. It was Flint who compared events to The Thick of It, and she was caught on camera laughing aloud at one Commons' performance by the energy minister John Hayes (although she suspects that things are rather going to his head now).

She is more concerned however about the long-term impact on the green sector and on British business. "In the last month or so we've started to really see businesses who normally like to have these discussions behind closed doors and the fact that they're now flexing their muscles and coming out and saying we are really worried about what's going on, that's really worrying."

For Flint it's should be all about opportunity. After the Climate Change Act in 2008, she points out, there was a huge upsurge in growth in the green sector which is now on the point of stalling again. For her the government bickering has been damaging both in its effects on business, and in the message it sends to the public. "We have to find a way to bring the public with us – and that's why my emphasis has been on, we can do right by the planet, but we can also do fantastic things for opportunities for people in this country as well if we're willing to be leaders rather than followers."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/05/caroline-flint

Environment Polar regions Greenland and Antarctica 'have lost four trillion tonnes of ice' in 20 years

Greenland and Antarctica 'have lost four trillion tonnes of ice' in 20 years

• Landmark study by global team of scientists published
• Finds melting polar ice has led to 11mm rise in sea level
• Greenland losing ice five times faster than early 1990s

• Thursday 29 November 2012 14.04 EST

The study found that while eastern Antarctic was gaining some ice, other areas were losing twice as much. Photograph: Mike Powell/Corbis

More than 4 trillon tonnes of ice from Greenland and Antarctica has melted in the past 20 years and flowed into the oceans, pushing up sea levels, according to a study that provides the best measure to date of the effect climate change is having on the earth's biggest ice sheets.
The research involved dozens of scientists and 10 satellite missions and presents a disturbing picture of the impact of recent warming at the poles.
The scientists claim the study, published in the journal Science, ends a long-running debate over whether the vast ice sheet covering the Antarctic continent is losing or gaining mass. East Antarctica is gaining some ice, the satellite data shows, but west Antarctica and the Antarctic peninsula is losing twice as much, meaning overall the sheet is melting.
"The estimates are the most reliable to date, and end 20 years of uncertainty of ice mass changes in Antarctica and Greenland," said study leader, Andrew Shepherd, of Leeds University. "There have been 30 different estimates of the sea level rise contribution of Greenland and Antarctica, ranging from an annual 2mm rise to a 0.4mm fall.
"We can state definitively that both Greenland and Antarctica are losing mass, and as [the] temperature goes up we are going to lose more ice."
The study shows the melting of the two giant ice sheets has caused the seas to rise by more than 11mm in 20 years. It also found Greenland is losing ice mass at five times the rate of the early 1990s.
The uncertainties over ice cap melting have made it difficult for scientists to predict sea level rise. But Prof Richard Alley, of Penn State University, US, who was not involved in the study, said: "This project is a spectacular achievement. The data will support essential testing of predictive models, and will lead to a better understanding of how sea level change may depend on the human decisions that influence global temperatures." Rising sea level is one of the greatest long-term threats posed by climate change, threatening low-lying cities and increasing the damage wrought by hurricanes and typhoons.
The study combined satellite measurements of the ice caps' heights from laser and radar instruments with measurements of the small changes in gravity caused by ice loss. The data was analysed ensuring the same regions and time periods were compared, as well as using the consistent estimates of the rebound that land experiences when heavy ice sheets start to melt.
The 11mm sea level rise caused by melting in Greenland and Antarctica makes up about a fifth of the total rise in the oceans since 1992, but the increasing rate of melting means the ice caps' contribution today is about two-fifths. The other contributions to rising seas are the expansion of water as it warms and a smaller contribution from the melting of ice caps and glaciers outside the poles. A study in February found that, over the past decade at least, the Himalayas had on average lost no ice.
Another recent study showed the changes to winds caused by global warming meant that sea ice – whose melting does not add to sea level rise – was very slightly increasing around Antarctica, at the same time as rapidly vanishing in the Arctic.
Ian Joughin, another member of the team, of University of Washington, Seattle, said: "Climate change is likely to accelerate ice loss greatly." He added significant challenges remained in predicting ice melting, due to the complexity of the interactions between the warming air and oceans and the great ice sheets and glaciers. "In Greenland, we are seeing really dramatic losses in ice, but it is still uncertain if it will slow, stay the same or accelerate further."
• One of the summary paragraphs introducing this article mistakenly stated the melting of Greenland and Antarctic has caused 11m of sea level rise. This has been corrected to 11mm.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/nov/29/greenland-antarctica-4-trillion-tonnes-ice?INTCMP=ILCNETTXT3487

Hawaii Lava Flow Reaches the Sea

Kilauea lava reaching the sea on the coast of Hawaii's Big Island on Nov. 26, 2012.

Lava from Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano has begun spewing into the ocean, producing a spectacular, steamy landscape for visitors and local residents. The molten material is flowing seven miles from the source to the sea, cascading into the water for the first time since last December.
Vulcanologists at the U.S. Geological Survey say the lava is creating a hard delta of debris when it makes contact with the Pacific.
But they warn that the expanded territory it is creating for the Big Island is unstable and can collapse at any time without warning.
Officials say no homes or commercial properties are threatened by the lava flow.

Photo: Leigh Hilbert

 http://www.earthweek.com/2012/ew121130/ew121130d.html

Environment Sea ice Scientists to reveal full extent of Arctic ice loss amid climate change fears

Large-scale thawing of the Arctic permafrost may already be underway. Photograph: John McConnico/AP

The full extent of the extreme loss of Arctic ice cover is due to be revealed on Wednesday when a premier US science agency delivers its annual report on the polar region.
The report, overseen by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), provides the most comprehensive review so far of a year of record-breaking and extreme weather events in the Arctic.
Some scientists have warned the changes in the Arctic recorded this year – particularly signs of thawing permafrost – could bring the planet much closer to a climate tipping point than previously anticipated.
"Climate change is taking place before our eyes, and will continue to do so as a result of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which have risen constantly and again reached new records," the World Meteorological Organisation's secretary general, Michael Jarraud, said.
Nowhere has that been more apparent this year than the Arctic, according to scientists.
Noaa's administrator, Jane Lubchenco, and other scientists were due to deliver their own assessment at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco on Wednesday afternoon.
The scientists will outline the record loss of summer sea ice – which reached its lowest value on the satellite records of 26 August 2012, the decline in spring snow extent, rising temperatures in the permafrost in northern Alaska, and the dramatic melting of the surface of the Greenland ice sheet, according to the AGU website.
Some of those findings have already been made public, reinforcing the already extensive evidence – in real time – of climate change.
New satellite and aerial data presented to the AGU week earlier this week suggested that the entire Greenland ice sheet was losing about 22 gigatons of ice a year, with rapid thinning in the northern edge of the ice sheet.
The entire ice sheet experienced rapid melting over a four day period last July, in an event that stunned and alarmed scientists.
The melting ice in Greenland has added to global sea-level rise over the last two decades. Future melting is also expected to add to rising seas.
The UN's weather agency, the World Meteorological Organisation, told negotiators trying to reach a global climate agreement in Doha, that an area of Arctic sea ice bigger than the entire United States melted this year.
Meanwhile, the United Nations Environmental Programme released a report warning scientists may have been underestimating the melting of the Arctic. Large-scale thawing of the permafrost, the frozen soil that traps vast amounts of carbon, may already be underway, releasing more of the gases that cause climate change.
This year is predicted to be one of the warmest on record, with global land and ocean temperatures in the first 10 months of 2012 about .45 degrees celsius above the average recorded even in the mid-20th century.
America and Europe baked under heat waves, the American midwest weathered its worst drought in a generation, and parts of Brazil and China also went without rain. Pakistan, meanwhile, lost hundreds to floods caused by epic monsoon rains. West Africa also experienced floods.
But it was the Arctic that exhibited the most staggering changes, according to scientists, and which dominated the United Nations' annual climate change report.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/dec/05/climate-change-scientists-arctic-ice-loss

Arctic Wildlife Populations Growing as Climate Changes

Walrus have been driven onshore en masse during recent years due to dwindling Arctic sea ice.

Some Arctic marine mammals, fish and birds are increasing in numbers as the region undergoes dramatic changes in climate, according to a new report. The Arctic Council released the “surprising” results of the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program at a conference in Montreal.
The report said that Arctic marine species have increased overall, driven by rising mammal populations and “dramatic increases” in fish populations.
Those numbers appear to have leveled off, and marine birds have undergone a steady decline since 1998.
The report says this “may be related to changes in climate, sea ice and food availability” and may be the beginning of a longer-term decline.
Some mammals were found to be recovering from centuries of exploitation, but rising populations of gray whales, bowhead whales and Greenlandic walruses have not returned to historical levels, the report says.

Photo: U.S. Geological Survey

http://www.earthweek.com/2012/ew120511/ew120511b.html

U.N. Agency Says 2012 Ranks Among Hottest Years

GENEVA — This year has ranked among the nine warmest since records began more than 160 years ago, continuing a trend for the planet that is increasing the dangers of extreme weather events, according to United Nations meteorologists.

“It confirms the trend towards a warmer planet,” Michel Jarraud, head of the World Meteorological Organization at the United Nations, said in Geneva on Wednesday as he delivered a provisional assessment intended to inform policy makers and negotiators attending the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Doha, Qatar.

The final judgment on 2012 will come in March, but Mr. Jarraud said that meteorologists were not observing any major events that would greatly alter the preliminary findings.

“Climate change is taking place before our eyes and will continue to do so as a result of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which have risen constantly and again reached new records,” he added in a prepared statement.

Among the most conspicuous evidence of climate change associated with global warming was the “alarming” rate at which Arctic ice had melted during the summer months, he said. The melting this year occurred at a much faster rate than in 2011 and outpaced the predictions of climate experts on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, he said.

By September, the level of Arctic ice was the lowest since satellite records began and had shrunk by nearly half — an area nearly the size of India — below the average minimum level in the 20 years before 2000, the organization reported.

The ice will reform in the winter but will be thinner than before and more vulnerable to further melting, Mr. Jarraud warned. “The trend is not only continuing but accelerating,” he said. “The more it melts, the faster it will melt.” The ice melt will contribute to rising sea levels that are already 20 centimeters, or nearly 8 inches, higher than a century ago, Mr. Jarraud said, posing added risks in the event of extreme weather. Hurricane Sandy would have had less impact on New York if it had occurred 100 years ago when sea levels were lower, he said.

After a chilly start to 2012, average temperatures from January to October were 0.45 degrees Celsius, or 0.81 degrees Fahrenheit, above the average from 1961 to 1990, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s findings. A rise of only one degree Celsius was sufficient to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, Mr. Jarraud said.

The above-average temperatures experienced in 2012 had been marked by record temperatures in areas like Greenland, Siberia and central China, the World Meteorological Organization reported.

Much of the United States, together with parts of Europe, western Russia and southern China, had suffered severe drought, while parts of West and sub-Saharan Africa had experienced severe flooding.

Meteorologists have been at pains to make clear that no major weather event was the result of a single cause, but research into climate change was establishing clear links, Mr. Jarraud said, citing the results of research into the extreme heat wave in Russia in 2010. “Without climate change, this episode would have been very unlikely,” he said. 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/science/earth/un-agency-says-2012-ranks-among-hottest-years.html?ref=earth