October Hurricane History

October Hurricane History

UPDATED September 28, 2014

By WeatherBug Meteorologists

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While the traditional peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is finished, south Florida becomes more at risk for tropical activity rolling through October.

Last year, Tropical Storm Karen formed near the Yucatan Peninsula and headed towards the western Gulf Coast in early October but fizzled out before making landfall. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo formed well east of Bermuda and headed east only to dissipate in the Eastern Atlantic.

Upper-level westerly winds become stronger and cold fronts dip farther south towards the Gulf of Mexico. Cool air masses bring down the ocean surface water temperature rapidly as well. These factors preclude many tropical cyclones from reaching far north into the U.S. However, a hand full of storms can still form in the season`s fifth month.

2012`s Hurricane Sandy is prime example of a monster storm that can wallop the East Coast north of Florida. Sandy ranks as the second-costliest hurricane to ever hit the U.S., with a price tag of more than $68 billion.

Besides Sandy, Tropical Storm Oscar, Patty and Tony as well as Hurricane Rafael formed in October 2012. Most of these storms were short-lived and did not impact land. Rafael became a hurricane south of Bermuda and dissipated by the time it reached far southeast Nova Scotia.

2011`s Hurricane Ophelia followed a similar track to Rafael but was a major Category 4 storm. The late-September and early-October storm got torn apart by upper-level winds after moving north of Bermuda and dissipated in the cooler North Atlantic.

In October, tropical cyclone formation is mainly in the western Caribbean, Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical cyclones typically don`t form near the Cape Verde Islands off the West African coast by this time in the season.

Nearly 90 percent of major hurricanes to hit the U.S. between 1900 and 2000 occurred prior to October. Since the hurricane tracks tend to shift farther south in October, south Florida is at greater risk for tropical activity. Between 1900 and 2000, Florida was hit by six major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) and south Florida was hit by five major hurricanes from 1900 to 2000.

From 1900 to 2000, the probability of a hurricane hitting south Florida in any given year in September is four to six percent. The probability of an October hurricane strike is six to eight percent (highest in the Florida Keys).

Some famous October hurricanes that hit Florida are:

• Opal in 1995: hit western Florida panhandle near Pensacola as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds
• Isbell in 1964: hit the southwest coast just south of Marco Island with 115 mph winds
• King in 1950: hit the southeast coast near Miami with 105 mph winds
• Unnamed hurricane in 1944: hit southwest coast near Port Charlotte with 120 mph winds
• Unnamed hurricane in 1910: hit southwest coast near Naples with 115 mph winds
• Unnamed hurricane in 1906: hit the upper Keys and southeast coast with 125 mph winds

The other three major hurricanes that have hit the U.S. in the last century in October were Wilma in 2005, Hilda in 1994, and Hazel in 1954. Wilma hit the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula before turning towards the northeast. It crossed the southern part of Florida as a Category 3 hurricane with gusts over 100 mph and spawned ten tornadoes. Wilma set the record for lowest central pressure (882 mb, previously 888 mb) as well as fastest pressure drop (88 mb in 12 hours, previously 48 mb in 12 hours). Hilda made landfall in south-central Louisiana with 115 mph winds, and Hazel hit near the North Carolina-South Carolina border with 140 mph winds and caused major wind damage all the way up the Appalachians.

Texas has seen only 2 hurricane hits in October from 1900 to 2000: Jerry in 1989 and an unnamed storm in 1912.

The northeast U.S. coastline north of Cape Hatteras did not experience any land falling October hurricanes between 1900 and 2000. However, two minimal hurricanes in the 1800s did make landfall there. One hurricane in 1864 passed across southeast Virginia and onto the Delmarva Peninsula.

October 1869 brought the famed "Saxby`s Gale,"which hit Cape Cod and southwestern Maine. It was named after a British Naval instructor, Stephen Saxby, who in December 1868 issued a rather vague forecast of a major storm somewhere in the world around October 5, 1869, based on a conjunction of lunar events: there would be a new moon, directly overhead at the equator, with the moon as close to the earth as it ever gets. The same circumstances occurred on October 6, 2002, but a recurrence of this phenomenon did not occur. The closest event was Hurricane Lili which died out on October 4th after making landfall in Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane.

Be sure to check with WeatherBug often for the latest information on the 2014 Hurricane Season. Be sure to keep WeatherBug active to receive the latest weather in your neighborhood and get the latest updates anywhere on Twitter.

Study: Number Of Multi-tornado Days Is Increasing

Study: Number Of Multi-tornado Days Is Increasing

October 17, 2014

By The Daily Oklahoman

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When an EF4 tornado tore through Shawnee and Bethel Acres last year, it was one of eight such storms that touched down in Oklahoma that day.

Nationwide, multi-tornado days like the one Oklahoma saw on May 19, 2013, appear to be increasing, according to a new National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration study.

Although the average number of tornadoes per year in the United States has remained relatively constant over the past six decades, the nation is seeing fewer days per year on which tornadoes occur, the report suggests. That means on days when tornadoes do occur, there are more likely to be several tornadoes instead of just one.

That trend could lead to greater likelihood of larger-scale catastrophes and put extra strain on emergency responders, a researcher said.

The study, which appears this week in the journal "Science," was conducted by a team of climate scientists from the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the National Weather Service`s Storm Prediction Center in Norman.

During the study, researchers set out to shed light on whether a relationship exists between climate change and the number of tornadoes that occur in the United States on average each year. Researchers analyzed records from NOAA`s database of tornadoes of all but the weakest tornadoes that occurred between 1954 and 2013.

When they compared records of recent tornado occurrences with those from decades ago, researchers noticed a gradual decline in the average number of days per year on which a tornado occurs somewhere in the country. In the 1970s, records showed about 150 days per year where a tornado rated F1 or greater occurred. By 2010, that average had dropped to about 100 days per year.

During the same period, researchers noticed an increase in the number of days per year when several tornadoes occurred. In the 1970s, the country saw about one day every other year in which 30 or more tornadoes occurred. By 2010, the country averaged about three such days each year.

"The number of days with a lot of tornadoes are going up," said Harold Brooks, senior research scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory.

Brooks, the paper`s lead author, said more research needs to be done before scientists can determine why tornadoes seem to be concentrated on fewer days per year. The study`s findings don`t point to a specific cause, but Brooks said the shift may be the result of shifts in atmospheric and weather patterns associated with climate change.

"It could well be," he said.

If the number of multi-tornado days continues to rise, it could place additional burdens on disaster responders, Brooks said.

When several tornadoes struck Oklahoma on May 19-20, 2013, emergency resources were spread out in several areas across the state. Brooks said situations like those could create a range of concerns, including having enough medical personnel to treat the injured and finding enough equipment to repair cities` power infrastructures when they`re knocked out.

"If you start having more outbreaks, then you start having to worry about using all those resources," he said.

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(c)2014 The Oklahoman

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Story image: Speedwell resident Tommy Ellison looks for family papers in the rubble of his home Monday, July 28, 2014, near LaFollette, Tenn. The National Weather Service confirmed a F-3 tornado packing winds of 140 mph slammed into the Speedwell community, leveling 10 homes and a business. AP Photo/Knoxville News Sentinel, J. Miles Cary

Drought of 1934 was the Worst in Past 1,000 Years

Drought of 1934 was the Worst in Past 1,000 Years

October 17, 2014; 4:49 PM ET

Scientists from NASA have determined that the drought of 1934 was the driest and most widespread drought in North America over the past 1,000 years.

The research team utilized tree ring data from the years 1000 to 2005 and more modern records to conduct their study.

What they found was that the 1934 drought, which covered 71.6 percent of western North America at it's peak was 30 percent more severe than the drought of 1580, which was the second worst drought during the period of record.

Palmer Index map from July 1934

Two key factors were responsible for the severity and extent of the drought, according to the report. A persistent, blocking high pressure system that anchored along the West coast, forcing storms away from the region and poor land management practices, which enhanced dust storms.

Key excerpts from the report.....

"It was the worst by a large margin, falling pretty far outside the normal range of variability that we see in the record," said climate scientist Ben Cook at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. Cook is lead author of the study, which will publish in the Oct. 17 edition of Geophysical Research Letters.

"In combination then, these two different phenomena managed to bring almost the entire nation into a drought at that time," said co-author Richard Seager, professor at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in New York. "The fact that it was the worst of the millennium was probably in part because of the human role."

"We found that a lot of the drying that occurred in the spring time occurred downwind from where the dust storms originated," Cook said, "suggesting that it's actually the dust in the atmosphere that's driving at least some of the drying in the spring and really allowing this drought event to spread upwards into the central plains."

The views expressed are those of the author and not necess