Water Vapor and Clouds Changes Amplify Global Warning

A very new paper currently in press shines light on climate feedbacks and the balance of energy flows to and from the Earth. The paper was published by Kevin Trenberth, Yongxin Zhang, John Fasullo, and Shoichi Taguchi. In this study, the authors ask and answer a number of challenging questions. Their findings move us a big step forward in understanding what is happening to the planet now, and how the climate will evolve into the future....

What the authors then asked is, how does this imbalance change? It turns out, the imbalance changes a lot over time. On a monthly basis the balance might change 1 Watt per square meter of surface area. The changes are caused principally by changes to clouds and water vapor, and other short-term weather patterns. Clouds have the ability to reflect sunlight back to space; however, clouds also have the ability to trap more heat within the Earth’s atmosphere. So, short-term fluctuations in clouds have large impacts on the net rate of heat gain by the Earth.....

By looking at the relationships among measured variables, such as temperature, radiation heat transfer, water vapor, and others, the authors were able to extract how changes to cloud cover influence global temperature. We know that clouds have a net cooling effect on the planet. But what we really want to know is whether this cooling effect will get larger or smaller in the future. If the cooling effect gets smaller, it means the Earth will warm more than expected. If the cooling effect of clouds gets bigger, it means the Earth will warm less than expected. 

What the present paper shows is that future changes to clouds will cause slightly more warming. Scientists describe clouds as a “positive feedback” on global warming. This finding is consistent with the work of Dr. Andrew Dessler. He had published work here and here showing changes in clouds are making the Earth warm more than otherwise expected. 

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/apr/23/changes-in-water-vapor-and-clouds-are-amplifying-global-warming

Fire in Los Angeles Upscale Neighborhood Causes Home Evacuations

A wildfire erupted on Monday near an upscale neighborhood of Los Angeles as some 200 firefighters, backed by water-dropping helicopters, fought the flames.

The blaze erupted shortly before 11am in the Los Angeles foothill community of Granada Hills, fire officials said, quickly charring some 15 acres (6 hectares) of brush left parched by California’s multi-year drought.

There were no immediate reports of injury or damage to nearby luxury homes as firefighters battled the wind-driven flames as they burned in a nearby canyon, throwing smoke over Los Angeles.

The Los Angeles fire department said that 10 homes were considered threatened and that those residents had been safely evacuated.

California is entering its fourth year of a devastating drought that has left brush and wilderness areas bone-dry and prone to wildfires.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/27/los-angeles-granada-hills-wildfire-homes-evacuated

Alabama Storm Kills at Least Two, at Race at Regatta

Coast guard crews continued searching Sunday for five people missing in the water after recovering two bodies following a powerful storm that capsized several sailboats participating in a regatta near Mobile Bay, Alabama.

One body was discovered Saturday and another was found on Sunday morning, major Steve Thompson, director of the Alabama Department of Public Safety’s Marine Patrol Division, said at a press conference in Dauphin Island....

More than 100 sailboats and as many as 200 people were participating in the Dauphin Island regatta in Mobile Bay. Officials on Sunday said not all of the missing people were participating in the race....

The conditions were similar early Saturday, according to tourists Joe B Stuard and Andrea Stuard of Wilmer, Alabama, who were watching the search and rescue boats from shore. They were riding their bikes on Dauphin Island as the storm blew through around 4pm.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/26/alabama-storm-sailboats-regatta-dauphin-island

Why was Nepal Earthquake So Devastating?

Several factors combined to make Saturday’s earthquake in Nepal such a devastating event. The first was its basic magnitude. At 7.8 on the Richter scale, this was one of the most powerful earthquakes to strike the region in the past 80 years. In addition, it was a shallow event with a source that was only 11km below ground.

That has special consequences, according to David Rothery, professor of planetary geosciences at the Open University. “The shallowness of the source made the ground-shaking at the surface worse than it would have been for a deeper earthquake,” he explained. “I’ve seen pictures of poorly constructed old buildings destroyed in Kathmandu, and I’m concerned that in this mountainous region there could have been landslides that might have destroyed or cut off various remote villages.”.....

As to the specific cause of the earthquake, it was triggered by the India tectonic plate, which is moving northwards at the rate of 5cm a year into central Asia. This results in thrust-faulting and has thrown up the Himalayan mountain range. It has triggered several other significant earthquakes in this region, including the 1934 quake at Bihar, which reached a magnitude of 8.2; the 7.5 event at Kangra in 1905; and the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, which reached 7.6. The latter two resulted in the highest death tolls for Himalaya earthquakes seen to date, together killing more than 100,000 people and leaving millions homeless.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/25/science-of-earthquakes

Study Finds Extreme Weather Already on the Increase Due to Climate Change

Extreme heatwaves and heavy rain storms are already happening with increasing regularity worldwide because of manmade climate change, according to new research.

Global warming over the last century means heat extremes that previously only occurred once every 1,000 days are happening four to five times more often, the study published in Nature Climate Change said.

It found that one in five extreme rain events experienced globally are a result of the 0.85C global rise in temperature since the Industrial Revolution, as power plants, factories and cars continue to pump out greenhouse gas emissions.

Future warming will bring a more volatile, dangerous world, even if the world manages to keep temperature rises within a 2C limit to which governments have committed, Fischer’s research found. On average, any given place on Earth will experience 60% more extreme rain events and 27 extremely hot days....

“The increased probability of high rainfall events will enhance the adverse impacts of these events in many parts of the world, particularly for vulnerable communities. For example short bursts of intense rainfall in Dhaka already cause huge traffic jams and misery for its citizens,” he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/27/extreme-weather-already-on-increase-due-to-climate-change-study-finds

Extreme Heat and Heavy Rain Events Expected to Double

Extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves and torrential rainfalls are the most powerful and obvious reminders that the climate is changing. These disasters were happening long before humans started pumping heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but global warming has tipped the odds in their favor. A devastating heat wave like the one that killed 35,000 people in Europe in 2003, for example, is now more than 10 times more likely than it used to be.

But that’s just a single event in a single place, which doesn’t say much about the world as a whole. A new analysis in Nature Climate Change, however, takes a much broader view. About 18 percent of heavy precipitation events worldwide and 75 percent of hot temperature extremes — defined as events that come only once in every thousand days, on average — can already be attributed to human activity, says the study. And as the world continues to warm, the frequency of those events is expected to double by 2100.

The new research differs from other so-called extreme event attribution studies, not just in its broad-brush approach, but also in how the term “extreme” is defined.

http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/climate-change-extreme-heat-heavy-rain-events-double

Free Online Course to Debunk Climate Denial Offered by University

The course includes climate science and myth debunking lectures by the international team of volunteer scientific contributors to Skeptical Science, including myself, and interviews with many of the world’s leading climate science and psychology experts. Making Sense of Climate Science Denial is a seven-week program featuring interviews with 75 scientific experts, including Sir David Attenborough, Katharine Hayhoe, Richard Alley, Michael Mann, and Naomi Oreskes.

The course incorporates lessons in both climate science and psychology to explain the most common climate myths and to detail how to respond to them. Research has shown that myth debunking is most effective when people understand why the myth originated in the first place. For example, cherry picking (focusing on a small bit of convenient data and ignoring the rest) is one of the most common fallacies behind climate science myths....

Thousands of students from more than 130 countries have already enrolled in Making Sense of Climate Science Denial. The goal is for the students to come out of the course with a stronger understanding of climate science, myth debunking, and the psychology of science denial that’s become so pervasive and dangerous in today’s world.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/apr/21/university-offering-free-online-course-to-demolish-climate-denial

Giant Blob of Warm Water Causing Odd Weather in the US

In recent months the US has had some really weird weather. Eastern North America has been held in the icy grip of the polar vortex, experiencing crazy amounts of snow during the winter. Meanwhile, the west has been warm and parched, with drought continuing to ravage California. Now scientists think they have pinpointed the cause of this odd weather: a giant blob of warm water in the Pacific ocean.

Scientists first spotted the blob in late 2013. Since then it has failed to disappear, and currently extends 1,600km along the west coast, from Mexico to Alaska, with water temperatures around two degrees higher than normal. Fish have been driven away by the excess warmth and hungry seals have been washing up on Californian beaches....

Since then it has elevated air temperatures and reduced snowfall, bringing drought to the west coast. Meanwhile, another study in the same journal shows this stagnant patch of warm air in the west affected atmospheric circulation, encouraging cold air to be sucked down over the eastern US.

Scientists don’t think the blob is connected to global warming. But it is very unusual, and climate models suggest it is likely to stick around for at least the remainder of this year, bringing continued weird weather.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/apr/16/weatherwatch-case-giant-blob

Arctic Alpine May Be Able to Survive as Temperatures Rise

Arctic alpine plants may survive in small pockets of cold, disturbed ground even if rising temperatures drive them from the rest of their habitat, according to researchers.

Typical Arctic alpine species, such as white Arctic mountain heather, mountain avens, and Diapensia lapponica, thrive in cold temperatures. But they are not as competitive or as responsive to changes in their environment as their lowland cousins.

However, Miska Luoto of Finland's University of Helsinki says cold "micro refuges" could stop the plants being swamped by crowberry, dwarf birch and juniper – more vigorous species that are set to move up hillsides and further north as climate warms. Luoto has spent three summers studying vegetation near Kilpisjärvi in Lapland, around 300 km north of the Arctic Circle....

Such depressions would then act as microrefugia – small hideouts, maybe just a few metres across – for cold-requiring species as climate warms, buying them extra time before extinction looms.

"Being able to shift just a small distance means that the outlook for these species is maybe not as bad as forecast, but it doesn't change the fact that the populations would be seriously affected by climate change," said le Roux. "Even if cold-requiring or cold-tolerant species are able to continue existing on a certain hill, they might end up being much less connected to other populations of the same species, which has all sorts of implications for genetic diversity."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/23/arctic-alpine-plants-temperature-rise

Experts Warn Chile's Calbuco Volcano Could Continue to Erupt for Months

Tension and fear is high in towns surrounding Chile's Calbuco volcano, after the sleeping giant awoke this week, sending spectacular plumes of ash into the sky.

This week was the volcano's first eruption in 42 years. The blasts that began Wednesday, creating a remarkable scene of smoke plumes and ash shooting more than 6 miles into the sky. Calbuco had another spectacular outburst early Thursday with lightning crackling through a dark sky turned reddish orange by the explosion. More smoke was seen coming from the volcano Friday, and experts warn it could erupt again....

The short-term dangers related to the ash also include eye and skin infections as well as water contamination, said Bernardo Martorell, a physician and the head of the sanitary planning division at Chile's health ministry....

Meanwhile, the Chilean national geology and mining service has warned that people should prepare for an "even more aggressive eruption."

http://www.weather.com/news/news/chile-calbuco-volcano-eruption-aftermath

El Nino and What That Means for Hurricans

Over the next few months, the globe might see an uptick in tropical cyclone activity thanks to an El Niño that is showing signs of asserting itself more forcefully.

That doesn’t mean more hurricanes everywhere, though: While El Niño tends to boost activity in the Pacific Ocean, it clamps down on storm formation in the tropical Atlantic. That link has at least one hurricane forecaster calling for a very quiet Atlantic hurricane season this year — possibly the quietest since the mid-20th century...

During an El Niño, a domino of atmospheric effects causes a large area of stable, subsiding air to form over the tropical Atlantic. Exactly the opposite of what a fledgling tropical cyclone, which thrives on instability, needs to grow and strengthen. El Niño also tends to bring more wind shear to the region, meaning the speed and direction of the wind changes more between different altitudes, putting the kibosh on a burgeoning storm....

In an El Niño year, fewer Atlantic storms mean a lower ACE for that basin, while in the eastern and northwest Pacific, longer-lasting storms raise the ACE value. But the changes aren’t equal: The increase in Pacific activity is larger than the decrease in the Atlantic, so “your global activity actually increases in El Niño years,” Klotzbach said.

In particular, activity in the northwest Pacific is a big determinant of global ACE for a given year. There, the tropical cyclone (or typhoon, to use the regional term) season lasts virtually all year, and so there is more opportunity for storms to form.

“The northwestern Pacific drives the bus,” as Klotzbach put it.

http://www.weather.com/science/news/el-nino-strength-what-that-means-for-hurricanes

Obama Pushes for Climate Change Action on Earth Day in Everglades

President Barack Obama used an unusually picturesque appearance at Everglades National Park on Wednesday to draw attention to an ugly problem that he said was threatening the well-being of people in south Florida and around the world: climate change.

The president appeared in rolled-up shirt sleeves at a lectern above an obscenely green sawgrass marsh to send a message that “climate change can no longer be denied” and “action can no longer be delayed”....

The White House arranged the event to mark Earth Day, the annual celebration of the planet begun in 1970. The Everglades is a 1.5m-acre estuary in southernFlorida that boasts hundreds of unique species and serves as an essential buffer and filter between inland freshwater stores and the salt waters of the Gulf Stream and ocean beyond.

The sea level is estimated to have risen a foot in south-east Florida since 1870, and is projected to come up another 9in to 2ft in the next 45 years, according to the Washington-based World Resources Institute. The drinking water of up to one-third of Floridians is threatened by encroaching seawater in the Everglades, according to White House figures.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/22/barack-obama-florida-everglades-climate-change

NSW Towns Warned to Watch for Flooding After Storms Hit

Storm-battered towns in New South Wales have been warned to watch out for more flooding, which has already claimed four lives.

The latest victim was confirmed on Wednesday night when police divers retrieved the body of an 86-year-old woman whose car was washed off the road near Maitland that morning...

Three people were killed in Dungog, north of Newcastle, on Tuesday when floodwaters hit the town.

The Bureau of Meteorology says the worst of wild weather is over but has warned that flood peaks will still come on Thursday despite less rainfall across the state’s east coast.

Cyclonic conditions that have lashed Sydney and its surrounding regions for days have left a trail of destruction, including more than 200,000 homes without power as of Wednesday evening.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/apr/23/storm-hit-nsw-towns-warned-to-watch-out-for-more-flooding-as-body-found

Sweeping Wildfires in Siberia

Twenty-six people have died and almost a thousand have sought medical treatment after wildfires swept through Siberia.

More than 5,000 rescue workers battled through the night to contain the blazes in the region of Khakassia in south-eastern Siberia, where 23 people died. Fires also raged in eastern Siberia, claiming three lives, authorities said.

The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, personally coordinated the work of the emergency services, his spokesman said.

The authorities blamed the fire on human carelessness, with people setting dry grass ablaze amid warm temperatures and high winds.

“This fire would not have happened if no one played with matches,” said the deputy emergencies minister, Alexander Chupriyan, referring to the fires that raged through Kakhassia on Sunday. He added: “It was adults and not children who did this.”....

Emelianova told AFP: “The temperature on Sunday was 25C (77F) and there were also storm winds. This combination caused the fires. We have never had this before.” She said more than 30 villages had been affected.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/13/siberian-wildfires-people-killed-and-hundreds-injured

Hundreds Evacuated in California, After Wildfire Spreads

An out-of-control wildfire that broke out in a forested basin near a Southern California dam triggered the evacuation of about 300 homes late on Saturday, authorities said. The evacuation orders were later lifted.

Authorities say the fire was reported shortly after 6pm on Saturday in the Prado Dam Flood Control Basin. The fire grew to about 300 acres by early Sunday and was 15 percent contained....

“The fire is fueled by thick brush in a riverbed that hasn’t burnt in years,” Mohler said. “The fire is creating its own weather, so firefighters are having difficulty getting in there.”

He said the flames were about a half-mile north of a residential area along the border of the cities of Norco and Corona.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/19/southern-california-wildfire-hundreds-homes-evacuated

US Government says: Drilling Causes Earthquakes

As the US Geological Survey confirmed on Thursday, in the last seven years, geologically staid parts of the US have seen earthquakes like they haven’t seen for millions of years. And they were triggered by drilling for oil and gas.

The drilling – or rather, the process of injecting water deep underground – has been triggering earthquakes in Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas.

For the most part, the report does not pin the blame on fracking itself – pumping large volumes of water, sand and chemicals into rock formations in order to free oil or gas – but rather on the associated process of injecting wastewater deep underground using injection wells....

In November of last year, the USGS and the Oklahoma Geological Survey co-hosted a workshop that included about 150 participants from academia, industry and government – the result of that meeting is the report that was released this week. That year, 2014, the number of earthquakes in Oklahoma reached 585 in one year.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/24/earthquakes-fracking-drilling-us-geological-survey

Deadly Everest Avalanche Triggered by Earthquake in Nepal

Climbers at the Mount Everest base camp – and others trapped higher on its slopes – were locked in a desperate effort to treat injured colleagues caught in a devastating avalanche that swept through the encampment after being triggered by Saturday’s powerful earthquake. 

With at least 13 people believed to have been killed on Everest, and others injured, climbers in the camp sent frantic messages calling for helicopter assistance to evacuate the most badly wounded.

Although official figures listed eight deaths, that figure seemed likely to rise......

At least 300 foreign climbers and hundreds more Sherpas had been on the mountain, or close to it, when the disaster struck.....

The scale of the disaster across Nepaland reports of poor visibility and snow at base camp suggested that there was little chance of immediate helicopter assistance. 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/25/deadly-everest-avalanche-triggered-by-nepal-earthquake

Nepal Earthquake

More than 1,800 people were killed by a powerful earthquake that struck Nepalon Saturday. The earthquake – which measured 7.8 on the Richter scale – wrecked houses, levelled centuries-old temples and triggered avalanches on Mount Everest. At least 18 people were killed on the mountain, and hundreds of tourists and guides are now trapped or buried in snow and ice there as rescue parties struggle to reach them.......

The tremor was the worst to hit the landlocked nation, sandwiched between India and China, in more than 80 years. At least 1,130 people were confirmed dead in Nepal, with others killed in north India, China and Bangladesh. Given the scale of the destruction, the death toll is almost certain to rise, said Laxmi Dhakal, a home ministry official......

Relief efforts were being hampered by a collapse in communications, raising fears that a widespread humanitarian disaster was unravelling across the impoverished Himalayan nation of 28 million. “This is a very large earthquake in a significantly populated region with infrastructure that has been damaged in past earthquakes,” said US Geological Survey seismologist Paul Earle......

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/25/nepal-quake-kills-more-than-1000

Since 1970's Great Lakes Ice Coverage Tops 80% in Consecutive Years

Ice coverage on the Great Lakes reached 85.4 percent on Feb. 18, marking the second winter in a row that ice coverage has exceeded 80 percent. Of course, last year the Great Lakes went on to record their second highest total ice coverage in records dating to 1973.

As this graph from the Great Lakes Environmental Research Labratory shows, the last time ice coverage was over 80 percent in back-to-back years was in the 1970s. Specifically, it happened three years in a row from 1977-1979. The long-term average peak ice coverage since 1973 has been about 51 percent.

On Feb. 21 ice coverage on the Great Lakes was 84 percent with ice concentration the highest on Lake Erie (95.72 percent), Lake Huron (95.52 percent) and Lake Superior (93.42 percent).

The ice coverage may continue to grow through the end of the month. Bitter cold temperatures are in place and the Climate Prediction Center branch of NOAA is forecasting a high likelihood of temperatures staying below average through the end of the month. 

Will ice coverage reach last year's peak of 92.5 percent? It's not out of the question that it could get close considering last year's peak was on March 6. We'll be tracking this story over the next couple of weeks, so stay tuned.

http://www.weather.com/news/news/great-lakes-ice-cover-february-2015

2015 is Picking Up Where 2014's Record Heat Left Off

The warmth that led 2014 to become the hottest year on record has continued into 2015, with last month ranking as the second-hottest January on record globally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

 “I think it is safe to say that the warmth so far in 2015 really is a continuation of the warmth in 2014,” NOAA climatologist Jake Crouch said in an email.

The past month was 1.39°F above the 20th century average of 53.6°F, second only to 2007 in the agency’s records, which go back to 1880. The Japan Meteorological Agency had January 2015 tied with both January 2002 and 2007, while NASA data put the month in second, also just behind 2007

All three agencies ranked 2014 as the warmest year on record by a slim margin, driven by the accumulation of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Nine of the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century, with the exception of the blockbuster El Niño year of 1998. There hasn’t been a record cold year set since 1911 while, during the same period, there have been 19 record-warm years, according to a Climate Central analysis.

The 2014 mark was largely driven by considerable heat in the world’s oceans, as illustrated in the above graphic of sea surface temperatures released by NOAA. The map shows that parts of the Pacific were the second warmest on record, and the Indian Ocean was the third hottest since 1982.

http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/2014-record-heat-oceans-warm-2015-global-temperatures-noaa

(MORE: Satellite Images Reveal Ocean Acidification from Space)