Warm weather to Dominate U.S. this week

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/warm-united-states-december-2015

It has not felt much like December so far across parts of the United States, but by later this week practically nobody will feel like December in the Lower 48 states as above-average temperatures take over virtually the entire country.

In some parts of the country, temperatures will soar up to 30 degrees above early-December averages at times this week. Below are the forecast details.

Cold Air Stays Bottled Up North

As we start meteorological winter, which runs from Dec. 1 through Feb. 29, true arctic air remains locked up in extreme northern Canada, well to the north of the U.S. border and even well north of all the major Canadian cities.

Friday, at least 16 Canadian cities set daily record highs, particularly in Manitoba, where the city of Morden, southwest of Winnipeg, soared to 14.2 degrees Celsius (about 57.6 degrees Fahrenheit). An additional fourteen daily record highs were set in Manitoba Saturday-Sunday, including Emerson (7.1 degrees Celcius/44.8 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday) where records date back to 1877.

Highs reached the freezing mark as far north as Thompson, Manitoba on Friday (roughly 55 degrees north latitude, about 470 miles north of Winnipeg). The average high on December 4, there, is -13.8C (7.1 degrees F). Just a bit farther northeast of there on Saturday, Gillam, Manitoba, reached the freezing mark which also was a new daily record (0.3 degrees Celcius / 32.5 degrees Fahrenheit).

In the U.S., both Marquette, Michigan (50 degrees at the NWS office in nearby Negaunee Township), and International Falls, Minnesota (45 degrees), tied their daily record highs Friday.

On Saturday, International Falls tied its record warmest low temperature for the month of December, only dipping to 36 degrees just before midnight. Then on Sunday a daily record high of 45 degrees was set. So much for the "Nation's Icebox," at least for awhile.

7.2 Magnitutde Earthquake hits Tajikistan, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan

http://www.weather.com/news/news/tajikistan-earthquake

A powerful earthquake has shaken Tajikistan, sending shockwaves to other Central Asian nations, but no casualties or damages have been reported immediately.

Authorities in Tajikistan nor in Kyrgyzstan would immediately comment on the possible damage. The quake shook buildings in cities in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, residents said.

The U.S. Geographical Survey said the epicenter of the 7.2 point earthquake was located in the east of Tajikistan, 120 kilometers (75 miles) from the nearest village.

An Associated Press reporter in neighboring Kyrgyzstan, south of Tajikistan, felt two tremors in the capital Bishkek within an hour before 11 a.m. local time.

Authorities in Kazakhstan reported tremors in the country's largest city Almaty as well.

A Dushanbe resident told Reuters news agency by telephone that the quake had been felt in the capital, but described it as moderate.

Storm Desmond Hits the U.K.

Britain's army was called in to help put down sandbags and evacuate people from their homes Sunday as Storm Desmond, the fourth named storm of the season, soaked parts of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland over the weekend.

Police in north London were investigating the death of a man who they believe was caught in a gust of wind and blown off a footpath into the side of a moving bus near Finchley Central Station, reports The Guardian. The 90-year-old was pronounced dead at the scene. 

Many rivers burst their banks in the central England county of Cumbria, where the city of Carlisle and hundreds of homes have been submerged. Northants Fire reports that at least 76 people have been rescued by the boat squad in Carlisle.

http://www.weather.com/storms/severe/news/storm-desmond-united-kingdom-uk-england-scotland-ireland

Pacific Storm Parade to Lash Northwest with heavy rain

http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/ice-wind-snow-rain-northwest-dec-2015

Monday's Storm

A classic November-December setup featuring a powerful jet stream stretching from eastern Asia across the Pacific for 5,000 miles to the Pacific Northwest will act as the conductor for this storm parade ahead. 

In fact, winds at jet-stream level over parts of the North Pacific well west of the U.S. were estimated at over 200 miles per hour Friday morning. Talk about a quick flight from Tokyo to Seattle, albeit just a wee bit choppy.

The latest round of rain, wind, and mountain snow will continue to impact Washington, Oregon, far Northern California, Idaho and western Montana into late Monday.

NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) has issued high wind warnings that are in effect into Monday for parts of the southwest Washington and Oregon coasts. High wind warnings are also in effect for the eastern slopes of the Oregon Cascades. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph are possible at times in the above mentioned areas.

Wind advisories are in place from the Portland, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington, areas southward into the Willamette Valley for gusts up to 45 mph on Monday.

Snow levels in the Washington Cascades will rise to 5,500-6,500 feet during the day on Monday.

NASA Scientist to California: 'You'll Essentially Be Riding in Your Kayak' When El Niño Sets In

http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/bill-patzert-el-nino

Bill Patzert has a message for Californians: get your kayaks ready.
It might seem bizarre to make a statement like that to a state that's seen such a dearth of precipitation in recent years, but with El Niño expected to peak in the coming months, anything is possible, the NASA scientist said. At a Tuesday gathering in Pasadena to discuss the possible effects of El Niño, Patzert told CBS Los Angeles that although the full wrath of this pattern has yet to be felt, it's likely to happen soon.
"Everybody is impatient here in Southern California, 'where’s the El Niño?'" he told CBS L.A. "Sit tight. In January and February, you’ll essentially be riding your kayak in front of your home."

If Patzert's worst-case prognostication comes to fruition, it wouldn't necessarily be the result of stronger storms, Patzert said. Rather, it's more likely, due to the El Niño pattern, that flooding would occur because of a relentless conveyor belt of rather normal storm systems hitting California, one after the next, he added.
Patzert earned the nickname "Prophet of California Climate" for his extensive studies on the Golden State and how it is impacted by climate change. In an August interview with the San Gabriel Valley Tribune, Patzert said a strong El Niño would be very beneficial to the California drought, but it could come with a cost.
"Would be a huge down payment on the drought," he told the Tribune. "Of course you’d have to survive the mudslides and floods and the havoc."

Dangerous winds for Northwest

http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/ice-wind-snow-rain-northwest-dec-2015
Strong and locally damaging winds impacted the Northwest for the second time in about two weeks on Thursday. After a bit of a lull for Friday, more storminess is forecast to return this weekend.
At least a few wind gusts exceeded 100 mph from this most recent Northwest wind event.

Wind Gusts

A look at reported wind gusts on Thursday across the area.

On Thursday, Mount Lincoln in the Sierra of California reported a gust to 106 mph at 2:20 p.m. PST, with sustained winds as high as 74 mph earlier in the afternoon. Squaw Peak in southern Oregon recorded a wind gust of 107 mph just after 8:30 a.m. PST, with sustained winds of 80 mph an hour earlier.
Typically windy spots along the Oregon coast also reported strong wind gusts, with Mount Hebo clocking a 72-mph gust just after 9 a.m. PST Thursday.
The greater Reno area had reported just over 5,000 power outages around midday Thursday, most of the power had been restored by Thursday evening. A semi truck flipped over about 5 miles east of town, where local authorities believed high winds were the cause.
Winds were strong enough to partially blow off a metal roof from a structure near Montague, California. In Brookings, Oregon, the National Weather Service relayed reports of down fences, blown in window panes and other minor damage.
Aside from the wind, much needed rain fell across portions of central and northern California. San Francisco International Airport reported 0.20 inches of rain on Thursday.
Through early Friday, additional rain and snowfall is expected, but winds will continue to diminish.

Rain and wind storms to his northwest throughout December

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/rain-wind-storms-northwest-us-frequent-december-2015-january/53940413

A train of storms will slam into the Northwest United States well into next week and perhaps through much of December.

The storms, which will vary in intensity and location, will hit every one to three days with waves of drenching rain, heavy mountain snow and gusty winds.

The lingering effects of a storm that moved ashore durng Tuesday night will continue to impact areas east of the Cascades in Washington and northern Oregon into early Thursday. Cities that can expect slippery travel include Spokane and Yakima, Washington, as well as Pendleton and The Dalles, Oregon.

A much more potent storm will blast ashore late Wednesday night and Thursday with high winds and heavy rain along the coast.

This storm has the potential to down trees and cause power outages, as well as bring the risk of flash flooding and mudslides from northern California to western Oregon.

Wettest November in India brings mass floods

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-tamil-nadu-chennai-flooding-continues-wet-november/53943597

Following a brief period of dry weather, downpours have resumed in southern India once again causing dangerous flooding.

Tropical moisture from the Bay of Bengal surged back into southern India, drenching areas from Nagapattinam to Nellore this week, and the threat will continue into this weekend.

Rainfall spread as far north as Visakhapatnam in northeastern Andhra Pradesh early this week; however, the heaviest rain remains focused over eastern Tamil Nadu.

The most numerous downpours and heaviest rainfall will be focused on the southeast coast of India from Ramanathapuram northward to Chennai on Thursday and Friday.

New flooding problems will remain a concern with additional rainfall of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) from Thursday through Sunday.

Odd weather in November

November 2015 included two rare tropical cyclones that battered Yemen's Socotra Island, a record late Category 4 hurricane, and even a tornado outbreak. The slideshow above contains some of the most stunning weather images from those events and other unique weather features from the month. The text below each image provides a brief description of each weather event.

http://www.weather.com/news/news/november2015-meteorological-images

Heavy rain to bring flash floods to South Florida

http://www.weather.com/storms/tornado/news/severe-weather-forecast-november-30-december-6-2015

Locally heavy rain triggered flooding, including landslides and washouts in parts of the southern Appalachians Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Although the heaviest of the rain is now tapering off there, we'll turn our eyes to another potential flood threat in South Florida later this week. 

Flooding prompted evacuations along the Coosawattee River in Gilmer County, Georgia, about 80 miles north of downtown Atlanta, early Wednesday morning. Roads were closed and impassable, with landslides and washouts. A Weather Underground personal weather station near the town of Cherry Log reported over 7 inches of rain Nov. 30 through the first half of Dec. 2.

Heavy rain over mountainous terrain is frequently a flood threat, but this area is already waterlogged from a record wet November. According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, Asheville (7.82 inches), Charlotte (10.04 inches) and Brevard, North Carolina (13.92 inches) each set record wet Novembers.

Fortunately, the cold front will finally clear the soggy Southeast later Wednesday, ending the rain. However, the front will then stall over South Florida as an injection of deep tropical moisture from the western Caribbean Sea surges northeast to meet it beginning Thursday night. This may contribute to periods of heavy rain in southern Florida late this week, which could result in some flooding.

Into Wednesday Evening: Rain Lingers in the East

• Rain will move east across the Carolinas and Northeast through Wednesday night. The rain may be locally heavy at times which may cause some localized flash flooding, as well as river flooding.
• No organized severe thunderstorm activity is expected as a relatively stable environment is forecast across the country.​

Thursday - Friday: South Florida Flood Threat

• The tail end of a cold front will bring locally heavy rain to South Florida Thursday and Friday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. However, the rain may trigger flash flooding, particularly in urban and poor-drainage areas.
• Florida flood threat cities: Miami | Fort Lauderdale | Key West
• Forecast rainfall totals: 3-5 inches (locally 5+ inches possible)

El Nino to bring a lot of snow for christmas

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/el-nino-white-christmas-impact

The El Niño of 2015 is the strongest in at least 18 years and one of only five other strong El Niños since 1950. 

This periodic warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean can have a number of effects on weather around the world, from heavy rain to extreme drought, persistent warmth to stubborn cold, and inactive versus hyperactive tropical cyclone seasons.

Given its strength, will this El Niño factor into your chances of seeing a White Christmas?

First, it's worth noting that meteorologists define a White Christmas as one in which at least one inch of snow is on the ground on Christmas morning – and they aren't as common as you think, even in colder climates.

Based on 30-year average data from 1981-2010, the chance of at least one inch of Christmas snow cover is less than 50 percent in these traditionally snowy cities:

• Boston: 21 percent
• Pittsburgh: 30 percent
• Chicago: 42 percent
• Cleveland: 45 percent
• Detroit: 46 percent
• Milwaukee: 48 percent

Hail storms in Argentina

http://www.weather.com/storms/severe/news/argentina-hailstorm-tornado-brazil-flooding-nov2015

Severe thunderstorms tore through parts of northern Argentina and southern Brazil Wednesday into early Thursday, dumping damaging hail, flooding rain, even spawning a tornado.

Hail up to the size of tennis balls pelted parts of Córdoba and Santa Fe provinces, west and northwest of the Argentine capital of Buenos Aires on Wednesday. 

Severe Weather Expected

http://www.weather.com/storms/tornado/news/severe-weather-forecast-november-4-8-2015

The emerging storm system will bring with it a roaring streak of wind energy several thousand feet aloft. By Thursday, winds some 20,000 feet above ground level will be screaming from the southwest at 100 to 140 mph from the Texas Panhandle to Minnesota. Winds of 60 mph may be blowing just a few thousand feet above ground level in parts of that corridor. Similar conditions will shift into the Great Lakes region Friday.

That's not just a concern for pilots. As thunderstorms erupt, they could pull some of that wind momentum down to ground level and that would bring the potential for damaging winds. That's the main reason for the severe weather threat areas depicted for Thursday and Friday.

7.5 magnitude Earthquake causes landslides in Pakistan

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4578878156001/deadly-magnitude-75-earthquake-causes-landslide-at-historic-suspension-bridge-in-pakistan?autoStart=true&utm_source=accuweather&utm_medium=accuweather&utm_campaign=awx_videowal_lin

Patricia leaves Texas under water

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-flooding-storms-texas-louisiana-patricia-rain-storms-tornado/53200684

Torrential rainfall led to dangerous flooding across Texas over the weekend, creating impassable roads and cutting power to thousands.
Nearly 30 water rescues were performed in the Houston area alone as high water overtook dozens of roadways.

Magnitude 7.5 Earthquake kills 100's

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/breaking-77magnitude-earthquak/53217665

A major earthquake rocked Afghanistan, Pakistan and India on Monday.
More than 100 people were killed, according to the Associated Press.
Dozens of homes were destroyed in Badakhshan, Afghanistan, in two remote and sparsely populated rural districts, local police told the AP.
The 7.5-magnitude temblor struck at 1:40 p.m. local time Monday, 45 kilometers north of `Alaqahdari-ye Kiran wa Munjan, Afghanistan, the United States Geological Survey reported.

Tropical Threats in Indian Ocean

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-on-watch-for-potential-t/53137651

A pair of tropical systems could develop across the northern Indian Ocean this week with possible impacts for India, Bangladesh, Oman and Yemen.
The North Indian Ocean is now entering its second peak of the tropical season. This surge occurs during the months of October and November, following a period of less activity during the monsoon season that started in late May.
As warm ocean waters remain in the Bay of Bengal, a low pressure system is beginning to take shape near Sri Lanka to the southeast of India.

Patricia Spares Mexico of damage

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-threat-heightens-risk/53016886

Patricia has moved into the northwest Gulf of Mexico as a tropical rainstorm after barreling onshore with catastrophic force, which the major cities in southwestern Mexico escaped.
The rugged terrain of Mexico forced Patricia to rapidly weaken after it made landfall on Friday evening.
Despite weakening, the danger of life-threatening flooding expanded into the United States as a combination of Patricia's moisture and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico surged northward.
Patricia made landfall at approximately 6:15 p.m. CDT on Friday along the coast of southwestern Mexico near Cuixmala, Mexico, around 55 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, as a Category 5 hurricane.
Maximum-sustained winds were estimated to be 270 km/h (165 mph), making Patricia only the second Category 5 hurricane to originate in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and make landfall in Mexico. The other was an unnamed hurricane in 1959 that also made landfall near Manzanillo.

Baseball-Sized Hail Pummels Parts of Italy

http://www.weather.com/storms/severe/news/baseball-hail-italy-pozzuoli-naples-sep2015

Baseball-sized hail came smashing down near Naples, Italy on Saturday in a storm that injured several people and animals in addition to causing damage to vehicles, crops and more.

The storm hit the city of Pozzuoli just outside the popular coastal destination of Naples.
According to Jonathan Erdman, senior meteorologist for weather.com, the storm was brought on by a vigorous southward plunge of the jet stream that carved into western Europe sending a potent upper disturbance into the Italian peninsula Saturday.
That instability then charged up thunderstorms over the Mediterranean Sea, which swept into Italy. "The satellite signature was classic for a severe thunderstorm, or cluster of storms."
Social media posts recorded hail near Lake Como in Northern Italy as well as the in the Naples area.

Tropical Depression Eight Forecast to Strengthen Into Tropical Storm Henri

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-depression-eight-atlantic-bermuda-2015

Tropical Depression Eight formed in the western Atlantic Ocean early Wednesday morning and is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm at any time in the next day or so. If it does so, it would be given the name "Henri."
Wind shear is currently pushing convection east of the center of the system's circulation, so that will put a lid on the system's potential for significant intensification.
A southward dip in the jet stream approaching from the eastern U.S. will accelerate the system northward, then curl it northeastward later this week.
Whether the system loses its tropical characteristics or not beforehand, there is some potential for a quick bout heavy rain and gusty winds in southeast coastal Newfoundland Saturday as the system quickly sweeps by.