Global Warming & Wildfires

How Does Global Warming Increase Wildfire Risk?

The frequency of large wildfires and the total area burned have been steadily increasing in the Western United States, with global warming being a major contributing factor.

• Longer fire seasons will result as spring runoff occurs earlier, summer heat builds up more quickly, and warm conditions extend further into fall. Western forests typically become combustible within a month of when snowmelt finishes. Snowpack is now melting 1 to 4 weeks earlier than it did 50 years ago.
• Drier conditions will increase the probability of fire occurrence. Summertime temperatures in western North America are projected to be 3.6 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher by mid-century, enhancing evaporation rates, while precipitation is expected to decrease by up to 15 percent. The Southwest will be hit particularly hard, perhaps shifting to a more arid climate.
• More fuel for forest fires will become available because warmer and drier conditions are conducive to widespread beetle and other insect infestations, resulting in broad ranges of dead and highly combustible trees. Higher temperatures enhance winter survival of mountain pine beetles and allow for a more rapid lifecycle. At the same time, moderate drought conditions for a year or longer can weaken trees, allowing bark beetles to overcome the trees’ defense mechanisms more easily.
• Increased frequency of lightning is expected as thunderstorms become more severe. In the western United States a 1.8 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature is expected to lead to a 6 percent increase in lightning. This means that lightning in the region could increase by 12 to 30 percent by mid-century.

The bottom line is that the overall area burned is projected to double by late this century across 11 western states if the average summertime temperature increases 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit, with Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah being hit particularly hard.
 http://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Threats-to-Wildlife/Global-Warming/Global-Warming-is-Causing-Extreme-Weather/Wildfires.aspx

Hurricanes & Global Warming

Global Warming and Hurricanes

The latest science connecting hurricanes and global warming suggests more is yet to come. Tropical storms are likely to bring:

• higher wind speeds;
• more precipitation; and
• bigger storm surge in the coming decades.

Over the course of this century, maximum windspeeds could increase 2-11 percent and rainfall could increase 3-31 percent.

http://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Threats-to-Wildlife/Global-Warming/Global-Warming-is-Causing-Extreme-Weather/Hurricanes.aspx

Breaking Records

Each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature record, which dates to 1880, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The six-month period from January to June was also the planet's warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the late nineteenth century.

Five of the first six months of 2016 also set records for the smallest respective monthly Arctic sea ice extent since consistent satellite records began in 1979, according to analyses developed by scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Maryland. The one exception, March, recorded the second smallest extent for that month.

While these two key climate indicators have broken records in 2016, NASA scientists said it is more significant that global temperature and Arctic sea ice are continuing their decades-long trends of change. Both trends are ultimately driven by rising concentrations of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The extent of Arctic sea ice at the peak of the summer melt season now typically covers 40 percent less area than it did in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Arctic sea ice extent in September, the seasonal low point in the annual cycle, has been declining at a rate of 13.4 percent per decade.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-break-records

Climate Change & Chicago

To assess the impacts of climate change and to develop a plan for the future, the City of Chicago consulted leading scientists to describe various scenarios for Chicago’s climate future and how those would  impact life in the city. The results of the research are both serious and encouraging.

Since 1980, Chicago’s average temperature has increased approximately 2.6 degrees. Our current trajectory poses risks to our economy and health. They demonstrate that we need to act now to reduce our emissions, while preparing for climate changes that cannot be avoided. We face a big challenge--but we have also been granted a big opportunity. Every Chicago resident and business has a role to play in implementing the Chicago Climate Action Plan, which will not only ensure a more livable climate for the world but also for the city. The economy and quality of life could improve. Jobs could be created. New technologies will emerge.

http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/pages/climate_change_and_chicago/5.php

Year 2100

According to scientist David Archer, whose research is often featured in the renowned Nature magazine, the C02 that we are emitting from fossil fuels today will still be affecting the climate in many millenia from now. His conclusion is that even though the majority of C02 emitted from burning a single tonne of coal or oil today will be absorbed over a few centuries by the oceans and vegetation, approximately 25% of it will still be lingering in the atmosphere in 1,000 years, and 10% still remaining and impacting the climate in 100,000 years time.

It will then require thousands and thousands more years for its complete absorption through the natural climate cycle. As Archer puts it, “the climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel C02 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste”.

Some of this future devastation is briefly discussed in the recently updated Copenhagen Diagnosis — a report authored by 26 leading climate scientists with the aim of updating the world on findings since the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. According to this Copenhagen Diagnosis, regardless of when a peak in global emissions finally occurs, the global temperature cannot be expected to stop rising until several centuries later, due to the extremely long life cycle of C02.

The carbon that we are releasing into the atmosphere today is in the process of "programming" a potential 2-5 meters of sea level rise by around the year 2300.

https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/climate-change-what-happens-after-2100

Climate Change Threats

Sea levels are rising and oceans are becoming warmer. Longer, more intense droughts threaten crops, wildlife and freshwater supplies. From polar bears in the Arctic to marine turtles off the coast of Africa, our planet’s diversity of life is at risk from the changing climate.

Greenhouses gases, such as carbon dioxide, trap heat in the atmosphere and regulate our climate. These gases exist naturally, but humans add more carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels for energy (coal, oil, and natural gas) and by clearing forests. Greenhouse gases act like a blanket. The thicker the blanket, the warmer our planet becomes. At the same time, the Earth’s oceans are also absorbing some of this extra carbon dioxide, making them more acidic and less hospitable for sea life.

The increase in global temperature is significantly altering our planet’s climate, resulting in more extreme and unpredictable weather. For instance, heat waves are becoming more frequent and many places are experiencing record droughts followed by intense rainfalls.

Humans and wild animals face new challenges for survival because of climate change. More frequent and intense drought, storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and warming oceans can directly harm animals, destroy the places they live, and wreak havoc on people’s livelihoods and communities.

U.S. Cities at Risk
As climate change worsens, dangerous weather events are becoming more frequent or severe. People in cities and towns around the United States are facing the consequences, from heat waves and wildfires to coastal storms and flooding.

http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/effects-of-climate-change

Great Barrier Reef

Devastating images showing the complete destruction of coral colonies on the Great Barrier Reef have been obtained by Guardian Australia and illustrate what is happening to coral there that would fill an area the size of Scotland.

They reveal the rapid death of coral impacting much of the Great Barrier Reef, with estimates that as much as half of the coral in the northern third of the 2000km reef had this fate.

Justin Marshall, a biologist at the University of Queensland, says more than 90% of the coral around Lizard island is dead or dying.

“These photos show a story … The shocking thing to think about is what you’re seeing there is happening over a 1000-kilometre stretch of the reef, to at least half of it. An area of the Great Barrier Reef the size of Scotland has coral that is dying right now. Or dead – probably dead.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/12/great-barrier-reef-devastating-images-tell-story-of-coral-colonies-destruction

Humans & Climate Change

Human activities contribute to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness. The largest known contribution comes from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide gas to the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases and aerosols affect climate by altering incoming solar radiation and out-going infrared (thermal) radiation that are part of Earth’s energy balance. Changing the atmospheric abundance or properties of these gases and particles can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system.

Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.

http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/faq/how-do-human-activities-contribute-to-climate-change-and-how-do-they-compare-with-natural-influences

Climate Change Affect on Polar Bears

How are polar bears affected by climate change?

Polar bears have evolved for a life on the sea ice, which they rely on for reaching their seal prey. But the arctic sea ice is rapidly diminishing due to a warming earth, affecting the entire arctic ecosystem, from copepods to seals to walruses. For polar bears, sea ice losses mean:

• Reduced access to food
• Drop in body condition
• Lower cub survival rates
• Increase in drowning
• Increase in cannibalism
• Loss of access to denning areas

Scientists predict that as the Arctic continues to warm, two-thirds of the world's polar bears could disappear within this century.

http://www.polarbearsinternational.org/about-polar-bears/climate-change#Affect

Climate Change Hurts Fish

Sea Surface temperature

Fish body temperature is moderated by water temperature. Increasing sea temperatures can affect important biological processes of fish including growth, reproduction, swimming ability and behaviour.

Reproduction is only possible in a narrow temperature range, and therefore could be affected by the forecast temperature rises associated with climate change. Temperature also influences the sex of fish, which may have an effect on population dynamics.

Some fish respond well to high sea temperatures, as these temperatures can shorten incubation time, increase growth rates and improve swimming ability in juvenile fish. Slight increases in temperature may be beneficial to some fish species as this can shorten incubation time, increase growth rates and improve swimming ability in juveniles. However these benefits are limited to relatively minor temperature increase.

Ocean acidification

Ocean acidification which is a change in ocean chemistry is  also likely to impact fish reproductive processes. Fish eggs are more sensitive to pH changes than fish adults, and thus the population numbers may dwindle if this impact is significant.

Ocean Acidification has also been shown to reduce the ability of fish larvae to find suitable habitat and find their way home.

Lots of species of fish live in and around coral reefs, and most feed on the microbes in the water, which provide fish with their carbon requirements. In general, the overarching affects of ocean acidification on coral formation and the abundance of carbon in the food chain will impact fish species through habitat and food availability.

Sea level rise

The projections for sea level rise in and around the Great Barrier Reef suggest much of the coast line will be inundated with water, resulting in major changes to mangrove and seagrass beds in these areas. These habitats provide protection and food resources for juvenile fish.

There are also species of fish on the Great Barrier Reef that live in both freshwater and saltwater habitats and changes to the pathways between these two habitats will make moving between them difficult for those species, including barramundi.

http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/managing-the-reef/threats-to-the-reef/climate-change/what-does-this-mean-for-species/fish

Threats to Coral Reef

Climate change is the greatest global threat to coral reef ecosystems. Scientific evidence now clearly indicates that the Earth's atmosphere and ocean are warming, and that these changes are primarily due to greenhouse gases derived from human activities.

As temperatures rise, mass coral bleaching events and infectious disease outbreaks are becoming more frequent. Additionally, carbon dioxide absorbed into the ocean from the atmosphere has already begun to reduce calcification rates in reef-building and reef-associated organisms by altering seawater chemistry through decreases in pH. This process is called ocean acidification.

Climate change will affect coral reef ecosystems, through sea level rise, changes to the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, and altered ocean circulation patterns. When combined, all of these impacts dramatically alter ecosystem function, as well as the goods and services coral reef ecosystems provide to people around the globe.

http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/coralreef-climate.html

Sahara Desert was Tropical

As little as 6,000 years ago, the vast Sahara Desert was covered in grassland that received plenty of rainfall, but shifts in the world's weather patterns abruptly transformed the vegetated region into some of the driest land on Earth. A Texas A&M university researcher is trying to uncover the clues responsible for this enormous climate transformation -- and the findings could lead to better rainfall predictions worldwide.
"Tropical rain belts are tied to what happens elsewhere in the world through the Hadley circulation, but it won't predict changes elsewhere directly, as the chain of events is very complex. But it is a step toward that goal."
"It has been something of a mystery to understand how the tropical rain belt moved so far north of the equator. Our findings show that that large migrations in rainfall can occur in one part of the globe even while the belt doesn't move much elsewhere.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/11/161130141053.htm

Climate Change & Deadly Avalanche

With a deadly avalanche, it appears climate change may now be affecting a once stable region of the Tibetan Plateau.

That's the conclusion of an international team of researchers who have published an analysis of the July 2016 disaster in the Dec. 9 issue of the Journal of Glaciology.

On July 17, more than 70 million tons of ice broke off from the Aru glacier in the mountains of western Tibet and tumbled into a valley below, taking the lives of nine nomadic yak herders living there.

To perform a kind of forensic analysis of the avalanche, researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences joined with two glaciologists from The Ohio State University: Lonnie Thompson, Distinguished University Professor in the School of Earth Sciences and research scientist at the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center (BPCRC), and Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Distinguished University Professor in Geography and director of BPCRC.

The most important fact about the avalanche, said Thompson, is that it lasted only four or five minutes (according to witnesses), yet it managed to bury 3.7 square miles of the valley floor in that time. He said something -- likely meltwater at the base of the glacier -- must have lubricated the ice to speed its flow down the mountain.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/12/161209080826.htm

Climate Change and Extreme Weather Relations

Climate Change Causes Extreme Weather—But Not All of It

A new NOAA report released November 5 looked at how (or how not) climate change affected 28 different global events in 2014. Each study attempts to quantify how much climate change affected the duration, geographic extent, and severity of the weather event in question. But some numbers were easier to crunch than others. For some historically well-recorded events—like heat waves—scientists can quickly and reliably calculate the impact of climate change. Take a rare and complex storm like a tropical cyclone … and, well, things get complicated.

Yesterday, 50 years ago, Lyndon B. Johnson received a warning about the effects of climate change, the first of many issued to US presidents. Since that day, climate study has been focused on the large-scale effects, current and predicted, of greenhouse gases. Those predictions—higher temperatures, stronger storms—are familiar now. But strangely missing was any formalized way to look at climate change in the opposite direction: to identify a particularly nasty weather event and ask whether it was caused by human emissions.

https://www.wired.com/2015/11/climate-change-causes-extreme-weatherbut-not-all-of-it/

Dark Comets

Are ‘dark comets’ the most dangerous threat to Earth in the universe?

October 2016 – SPACE – There are many cosmic catastrophes that could do us in, completely irrespective of anything that happens here on Earth. A star could pass into our Solar System and swallow up our planet whole, or eject us from our orbit and cause us to permanently freeze over. A supernova or gamma ray burst could go off too close to us, disintegrating all life on the Earth’s surface. Or, as we know it did at least once before some 65 million years ago, a large, fast-moving object like a comet or asteroid could have a catastrophic collision with Earth. At least if we’re prepared, we ought to see one coming and be able to take preparations. But what if there’s no chance; what if an incoming comet is somehow unseeable? David Bertone heard about that possibility, and wants to know!

I recently came across a few articles regarding dark comets, and to say the least it freaked me out! […] Is Napier right about the dark comets? Are they truly a threat to us [on] earth? We have lots of threats to life on Earth, and getting struck by a large, fast-moving, unexpected object is certainly among them! Bill Napier is a scientist who studies potentially hazardous objects from outer space. He rightly points out that, while most efforts to catalogue the potential dangers to Earth focus on near-Earth objects like the asteroids that leave the main belt and cross Earth’s orbit, that might not be a good reflection of what’s actually likely to get us. Nor is it necessarily an asteroid orbiting interior to Jupiter or a comet orbiting exterior to the orbit of Neptune, just waiting to get perturbed and flung into the inner Solar System. There are plenty of objects orbiting in between the orbits of the four gas giants, known as centaurs, that could be hurtled inwards without any warning, and most of them have not been catalogued. Napier postulates that many of these centaurs may be invisible to us, even after being flung inwards, until it’s far too late.

Hurrican Hermine

Hermine: First hurricane to hit Florida in 11-years leaves one dead and some 200,000 without power

September 2016 – WEATHER – Hurricane Hermine slammed into Florida leaving one person dead, 253,000 without power and caused dozens of towns in its path to evacuate as it continues to cause chaos on its way into Georgia and the Carolinas. The Category 1 storm hit just east of St. Marks around 1.30 am EDT with winds around 80 mph, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Projected storm surges of up to 12 feet menaced a wide swath of the coast and an expected drenching of up to 10 inches of rain carried the danger of flooding along the storm’s path over land, including the state capital Tallahassee, which had not been hit by a hurricane since Kate in 1985.

Florida Governor Rick Scott, who declared a state of emergency in 51 counties, said 6,000 National Guard members were ready to mobilize once the storm passed. Hermine – downgraded to a tropical storm – weakened as it moved into southern Georgia, and was 55 miles southwest of Savannah, moving northeast while packing sustained winds of 55 pm as of 10 am EDT on Friday. After pushing through Georgia on Friday, Hermine is expected to move into the Carolinas on Saturday and up the East Coast with the potential for drenching rain and deadly flooding in New Jersey and New York City over the Labor Day weekend.

Typhoon Haima

Typhoon Haima leaves at least 8 dead in northern Philippines

October 2016 – NARVACAN, Philippines – “At least eight people were killed after Super Typhoon Haima smashed into the northern Philippines with ferocious wind and rains, flooding towns and forcing thousands to flee although it slightly weakened Thursday after slamming into a mountain range on its way to the South China Sea, officials said. Haima’s blinding winds and rain had rekindled fears and memories from the catastrophe wrought by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, but there were no immediate reports of any major damage amid spotty communications and power outages in several provinces. Thousands of villagers were moved to emergency shelters as the typhoon approached. Two construction workers died when a landslide buried their shanty in La Trinidad town in the mountain province of Benguet, officials said, while two villagers drowned in floodwaters in Ifugao province, near Benguet. The typhoon slammed into shore in Cagayan province late Wednesday, and lashed the mountainous province of Apayao at dawn with slightly weaker sustained winds of 205 kilometers (127 miles) per hour and gusts of 285 kph (176 mph). It was blowing northwestward at 25 kph (15 mph) toward the tobacco-growing Ilocos Norte, the last province before it exits toward the South China Sea, according to forecasters. In Narvacan town in northern Ilocos Sur province, rice fields resembled a brown lake under waist-high floodwaters. Despite the still-strong wind and rain, government workers have started clearing roads blocked with toppled trees and all kinds of debris. “We can’t go out because the wind is so intense, trees are being forced down,” Councilor Elisa Arugay told DZMM radio late Wednesday from Camasi village in Cagayan province. Officials were concerned because the powerful typhoon struck at night and was expected to hit towns and cities amid power outages. The government’s weather agency lowered it storm warning to level five, down from the highest level of six.

https://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2016/10/21/typhoon-haima-leaves-at-least-8-dead-in-northern-philippines/

Weird Weather

A Tropical Storm North of the Equator

In January, the lion's share of Earth's tropical cyclones are south of the equator, in the summer hemisphere, with the exception of the western North Pacific basin, where typhoons can occur year-round. You don't see many January tracks north of the equator east of the international date line in the Pacific Ocean. Until January 2016, that is. Pali became the earliest Central Pacific tropical storm of record on January 7, well southwest of Hawaii. This was thanks to a burst of abnormal westerly low-level winds near or just south of the equator, coupled with the typical northeasterly trade winds of the subtropics north of the equator, providing a broad area of spin in which, once thunderstorms consolidated, a tropical storm formed. Pali is only the third January tropical storm of record in central Pacific records dating to 1949.

Solomon Islands Earthquake

Staff and agencies

Saturday 10 December 2016 00.36 EST

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The Solomon Islands were rattled by a 6.9 magnitude earthquake on Saturday, a day after hundreds of people along the coast fled into the hills following a 7.8 magnitude tremor.

The latest quake initially triggered a fresh tsunami warning for the Solomons but that was lifted by authorities a short time later. No deaths were reported.

There were reports of damage to homes in remote areas, potentially affecting hundreds of people, but Suzy Sainovski, World Vision’s Pacific Timor-Leste spokeswoman, said it had been hard to get a full assessment from some more remote communities that did not have mobile phone coverage.

“There are some initial reports that 3,000 people have been affected,” Sainovski said. “Some of these are traditional houses that are on stilts, and made with vegetation.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/09/solomon-islands-shaken-by-second-earthquake-in-two-days

Wet & Wild Weather 2015

The cause: a warming climate and a superstrong El Nino. El Nino is a weather phenomenon out of the Pacific Ocean that hits every few years and affects weather globally. It starts with a large body of unusually warm weather in the western Pacific that sloshes eastward; it changes wind and weather patterns as far away as the Atlantic and Indian oceans.

Together, climate and a very strong El Nino pushed the average temperature in the U.S. up over its 20th century average by 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

And even when the atmosphere is only that much warmer, it holds more moisture, leading to record snows in the Northeast last February and March, and record rain in the South and Midwest. NOAA'S Deke Arndt says he and other climate scientists expect more of the same.

"The fact is, we live in a warming world," Arndt says, "and a warming world is bringing more big heat events and more big rain events to the United States."

All this weather led to 10 extreme events that each did at least $1 billion in damage. These events included drought, flooding, severe rainstorms, big wildfires and winter storms. That's a wider variety of different types of $1 billion-plus weather events than usual.

http://www.npr.org/2016/01/07/462265900/u-s-weather-wet-and-wild-in-2015-though-no-big-hurricanes