New Greenhouse Gas More Potent than CO2 Discovered in Atmosphere

A new greenhouse gas with a potential lifetime of hundreds of years has been discovered in the atmosphere, according to a new study. It’s 7,000 times more powerful than CO2. 

A greenhouse gas is any gas that absorbs infrared radiation, which is released from the surface of the Earth. Some occur naturally, while others are manmade, including the newly discovered gas, perfluorotributylamine (PFTBA). PFTBA has been used for decades in electrical equipment, according to a release, but had not been found in the atmosphere until now.

“Calculated over a 100-year timeframe, a single molecule of PFTBA has the equivalent climate impact as 7,100 molecules of CO2,” Angela Hong, a chemist at University of Toronto and one of the researchers who made the discovery, said in a release.

The gas was found at a concentration of .18 parts per trillion, which is “so terribly small,” Viney Aneja, a professor of air quality at North Carolina State University not involved in the research, told weather.com. Carbon dioxide levels currently hover at around 400 parts per million, which is 400 million parts per trillion.

“The lifetime of the specie [gas] is relatively large, and since it’s relatively large it will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere,” Aneja said. “As it continues to accumulate in the atmosphere, then its consequence may be significant on all sorts of different issues. But right now it is only .1 parts per trillion.”

Aneja said the discovery is important and the effects of the gas on both human health and the environment will need to be studied.

The research is published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Another arctic blast will trigger THREE FEET of lake effect snow in Upstate New York

Upstate New York is braced to receive an onslaught of lake effect snow by week's end.

New Yorkers from Syracuse to Watertown could see as much as three feet thanks to the coldest temperatures to hit the region yet this season blowing across Lake Ontario.

Other lakeside cities like Chicago and Buffalo also expected major snow from the second bitter arctic blast of the year, which is set to chill Americans from Cincinnati to Boston by Thursday.

Weather maps of the Great Lakes region show nothing but snow in the forecast through Friday, with the most intense precipitation in Upstate New York.

Locally intense snowfall east of Lake Michigan, south of Lake Superior and east of Lake Ontario could reach a whopping four feet, according to Accuweather.com.

Lake effect snow occurs when cold, dry air passes over the relatively warm water of the Great Lakes and picks up moisture. That moisture eventually freezes and falls in the form of snow.

In addition to Upstate New York, parts of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania also commonly feel the effects.

Buffalo, New York is no stranger to lake effect snow and is expected to receive slightly less than the Syracuse area, with accumulation closer to two feet.

Chicago saw a couple of inches of snow Wednesday morning as the arctic blast blew south. While the snowfall was brief, the city braced for extreme cold and wind chills that could feel like -25 degree Fahrenheit at their worst.

While too far from any lakes for this round of snowfall, East Coasters from Washington, DC through New York City to Boston can expect the feel the coldest temperatures yet this season by Thursday as the arctic blast reaches south then blows northeastward.

Fall Is Warmer, Wetter Than Average Across Most of U.S.

With an average temperature of 54.1 degrees Fahrenheit, the autumn season – the period between September and November – brought warmer- and wetter-than-average weather across the 48 contiguous U.S. states, slightly above the 20th century average.

The news was announced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in its monthly climate report, released Wednesday afternoon.

While much of the country experienced near-average temperatures during the fall, Alaska experienced its 10th warmest autumn in 95 years of record keeping with a statewide average temperature 4 degrees above the 1971 to 2000 average, driven largely by the state's record warm October, Alaska's hottest since 2002.

Across much of the Rockies and Northern Plains, wetter-than-average conditions were observed as several states from Colorado to North Dakota each had precipitation totals for the fall that ranked among their 10 wettest.

Further to the west, California saw its 10th driest autumn on record with a seasonal precipitation total of 1.93 inches – just over 2.3 inches below the state's 20th century average for the season. Much of the Southeast, the mid-Mississippi River Valley and parts of the Northeast also saw below-average precipitation this autumn.

NOAA

At left, fall 2013 precipitation level departures from the 20th century average. At right, the fall 2013 temperature departures from the 20th century average.

The nationwide pattern changed slightly in November, as below-average temperatures prevailed across a majority of the contiguous United States during the month – east of the Rockies. In theSouthwest and in Florida, November brought above-average temperatures.

Thanks largely to the parade of winter storms that have swept across the country in recent weeks,snow cover extent across the U.S. spanned more than 590,000 square miles in November, the 12th largest in the 48-year historical record covered by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab.

http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/fall-warmer-wetter-average-across-most-us-20131211

About the chance of wintry weather Saturday, and the outlook beyond

Another round of winter weather is possible on Saturday but how it plays out and whether we have a wintry mix, a cold rain or both is a big question mark.  Beyond that, over the next two weeks, we see a slow transition from a cold pattern to a milder one, before possibly flipping cold again towards Christmas .

Saturday storm overview

The overall pattern Saturday is similar to the one associated with our snow and freezing rain event Sunday, but the air mass does not look quite as cold.

The models are predicting that another strong Canadian high pressure center will be located in a favorable spot to funnel cold air towards the region as a low pressure system tracks towards the Ohio Valley before likely reforming along the Atlantic coast.   The low will provide moisture while the high pressure area keeps temperatures just cold enough to threaten the region with more wintry weather.

Unfortunately, the models differ on the details about how cold the surface temperatures might be when the precipitation arrives, and how quickly milder air streams in and scours out the cold.

This is another one of those tricky cold air damming events in which the air near the surface is sometimes colder than forecast by the models even as warm air can come in fairly quickly aloft.  Therefore, we often end up with a mix of precipitation types  prior to any changeover to rain.  Usually, the western and northwestern locations like Leesburg and Frederick end up with more wintry weather than the District and points east.  More often than not, these type of events are a nuisance rather than disruptive.

Right now, our best bet is a period of mixed precipitation Saturday morning, changing to plain rain in the afternoon and night.   But, with the storm 4 days a way, details in the timing, amount, and type of precipitation will probably change some.

The model forecasting dilemma

The NAM and most of the 9Z SREF model members favor temperatures remaining above freezing through most of the event and suggest that the storm would be primarily rain while the latest European and GFS models suggest some mixed precipitation before a change to light rain.  Last night’s European model conveyed a more snowy scenario. Such model diversity makes any definitive stab at forecasting how much winter weather this system will produce this early in the game a rather futile endeavor.

Last night’s European model forecast for Saturday is a poster boy for cold air damming and offered the most wintry look of the various model simulations in the last day or so.  Its depiction of a big surface high over Quebec (below left) and a trough of low pressure across the North Carolina screams that cold air could hang over the area for most of the event.   It simulated temperatures at 5,000 feet (850 mb) are around -4C at 7 p.m. Saturday (below, right) – plenty cold enough for snow in D.C.

(WeatherBell.com)

However, last night’s operational European model was probably an outlier.  The inset on the figure above (on the right panel) shows the European ensemble mean forecast for the same time as the European model.  The European ensemble mean forecast  temperatures at 5,000 feet (850 mb) are decidedly warmer than the operational model.  The bulk of the European ensemble members (alternative versions of the operational model, with initial conditions tweaked) predict  a brief period of snow but would also argue that most of the precipitation across Washington would fall as something other than snow, probably as rain or, to our west, freezing rain. Last night’s European model is pretty much a worst case scenario. It’s  possible – but probably not the most likely scenario.

This morning’s NAM model would suggest little in the way of winter weather as it raises temperatures to above freezing across the area fairly quickly.  The GFS (see below) is a compromise between the two more extreme solutions.   It advertises a quick shot of light snow at the onset quickly changing to rain across the District and for points east.  However, it hangs on to freezing rain for the far western suburbs (see below) through much of the day.  Right now that looks the most likely solution but any of the three different solutions remain in play.

(WeatherBell.com)

The new European model from this morning (just out) supports the GFS solution and is not like the cold, snowy version of the same model from last night.

So what’s the bottom line about Saturday?

Precipitation is expected to move into the area Saturday morning possibly beginning as snow which will probably eventually change to freezing rain and then rain. How long the cold air hangs in place is very much in doubt.  The best chances for impactful winter weather are in areas well west of D.C. but even folks in the District need to monitor the storm over the next two days.

What about a general two week outlook that includes Christmas week?

Temperatures through the middle of next week should be on the cool side.  They’ll be quite cold the next couple of days but with the temperatures rising to near normal by the middle of next week.  Then look for moderating temperatures, probably rising above normal for several days before the next cold shot arrives.

The GFS ensemble (GEFS) display the warming that is expected during week leading up to Christmas.  However, ensemble members have a large spread (the length of the vertical blue and green line) on the box and whisker diagram below.  That’s pretty typical for a week two forecast but is also warning that all such long range outlooks are cloaked in lots of uncertainty especially in the timing of fronts.  That said, the warm up looks like a pretty good bet.  However,  the duration of our warmer than normal period is up in the air as is the duration and timing of of the next cold shot that the models are indicating might arrive towards Christmas day.

Temperature forecast from the GFS ensemble mean out 16 days shown by black line – with green bars showing temperature range from different ensemble members. The gray line in the background is the historical average. (WeatherBell.com)

The 500 mean height pattern (below left) helps explain why we expect a warm spell to come to fruition and also gives a hint of why the warm air may be transient (short-lived). The dip in the jet stream or (blue area) is located over the western U.S. during the 5-day mean period ending Dec 24.  Examining a mean pattern helps make the location of the longer wave features stand out.  The dip in the West promises to cause our winds aloft to average from the southwest direction during those 5 days.  The southwest winds aloft produce warming temperatures; as such, the temperatures at 5,000 feet (850 mb, below right) average above normal for that 5 day period.   Such a pattern also favors storms tracking to our west – in any storm’s warm (rainy) sector.

(WeatherBell.com)

The complicating factor is the ridging or orange area poking into Alaska on the 500 mb (altitude of 18,000 feet, roughly)  forecast and the implied northwesterly flow across western Canada  into the northern plains.  Such a pattern usually leads to the development of another cold high pressure system that then plunges  south into the northern Plains.  Eventually some of that cold air gets to us after a storm passes to our north and drags a cold front through – maybe with some rain.  That is what the GEFS ensemble temperature forecast on the box and whisker diagram above seems to be playing.

After the front comes through and drives colder air into the region, we’ll have to watch to see if a wave develops along it – bringing another round of messy, overrunning precipitation around or shortly after Christmas.

For this two week period, we’ll probably average normal to a little above normal precipitation with the best chances of above normal precipitation being to our north.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/11/about-the-chance-of-wintry-weather-saturday-and-the-outlook-beyond/

Winter Storm Electra Forecast: Snow, Some Ice from Ozarks to New England

Fresh off the recent pounding from Winter Storms Cleon and Dion, another round of nasty winter weather is set to spread through the eastern third of the nation. The Weather Channel has now named this system Winter Storm Electra.

Through Thursday, before Electra begins, localized areas of lake-effect snow could pile up more than 2 feet in western and central New York. After that, Winter Storm Electra will begin to develop in the Midwest Thursday night into Friday and head for the Northeast this weekend with more snowand some ice.

Here's breakdown of what's expected as we head into the weekend.

Late Thursday Night into Friday: Wintry Mix Begins

Friday's Forecast

As the day progresses, precipitation will be on the increase as the new storm system begins to gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

A mixed bag of precipitation — including freezingrain, sleet and snow — will begin to spread from eastern Kansas into northern Arkansas, Missouri and western Illinois. Places like Kansas City, St. Louis, and Fayetteville, Ark. can expect to get some of the wintry precipitation, though at times these areas could change over to a cold rain.

Through the overnight hours Friday night, the wintry mix will continue to push northeast, spreading over the rest of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, southern Michigan, and at least northern Kentucky. From aboutI-70 northward, this will likely be all snow.

Saturday - Sunday: Winter Storm Electra Spreads from Ohio Valley to Northeast

Saturday's Forecast

Sunday's Forecast

Saturday morning, snow will be ongoing between the southern Great Lakes and the Ohio River, from central and northern Illinois to central Ohio. A narrow band of snow, sleet and freezing rain will be located from near the Ohio River into the central Appalachians. This will make travel treacherous on portions of I-70, I-64, I-80, I-57, I-65, I-75 and I-77.

(FORECAST: Indianapolis | Cincinnati |Columbus)

Snow is likely to spread into portions of the Northeast throughout the day and into the evening hours on Saturday, including New York City,Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. It's possible these locations could change to a wintry mix or rain depending on the track of the storm system.

Farther south in Washington, D.C., mixed precipitation is more likely. The good news is that D.C. and points south will be above freezing and impacts should be much less significant. 

(FORECAST: New York | Washington D.C. | Boston)

Saturday night into early Sunday will yield some pretty large snow totals from central Pennsylvania into Upstate New York and New England. This includes Scranton, Pa., Albany, N.Y. and Concord, N.H. In addition, low pressure will be developing south of New England and tracking northeast during this time. While the low should stay offshore, it will cause winds to increase somewhat across New England as snow continues to fall. At this time, winds are not expected to get anywhere near blizzard criteria (35 mph sustained or in frequent gusts).

Moving through the day on Sunday, heavier snow will continue to move across New England, dropping accumulating snowfall on eastern New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine. Current thinking is that Boston will see several inches of snow beginning Saturday prior to any possible changeover to ice or rain.

(FORECAST: Buffalo | Boston | Portland)

By Sunday evening the bulk of the precipitation should be over, moving into Canada and offshore. A few scattered snow showers can't be ruled out mainly in northern Maine.

How Much Snow?

Winter Storm Setup

There remains some uncertainty in the track of Winter Storm Electra and the amount of moisture it will wring out. This will determine how much snow we can expect from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast this weekend. But it's safe to say that significant accumulations are possible, particularly from northern Pennsylvania into Upstate New York and New England where accumulations of more than six inches of snow are not out of the question.

The exact track of the storm will also determine whether cities from coastal Southern New England to New York City and Philadelphia eventually see the snow change to sleet, freezing rain or rain. Either way, at least some accumulating snow is likely.

In the Midwest, early projections are for snow on the order of 3 to 8 inches of snow for many areas near and north of the I-70 corridor from Illinois to Ohio, though parts of northern Illinois north of I-80 may miss out on these amounts.

We will provide more information and details on Winter Storm Electra as the weekend approaches.

Study Links Arctic Melting, Extreme Weather

 
WASHINGTON — As ice at the North Pole disappears at an alarming rate, some researchers are finding a link between that phenomenon and recent bouts of extreme weather. A new study suggests rapid warming in the Arctic may be altering weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, but skeptics say the case is far from proven.
 In the past three decades, ice around the North Pole has declined by half, according to Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer.

“If you take into account the thickness as well, we’ve lost almost three-quarters of the volume of the sea ice. So, it’s just an unbelievable amount of change that’s going on in the Arctic,” said Francis.

At the same time, the Northern Hemisphere has seen some unbelievable weather in the last decade, including record-breaking heat waves and droughts in North America and Europe, and devastating floods in East Asia, to name a few.

The question is: are they connected?

Francis and colleagues went back through 30 years of weather data and measurements of Arctic ice and snow cover in northern latitudes. Their findings did show a correlation between the two.

“What we found was, when there was less ice or less snow in any given year during the summertime, that that was more likely to occur at the same time as the occurrences of heat waves,” said Francis.

They published their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change. Francis said the loss of ice and snow is affecting the high-altitude winds called the jet stream, which push weather patterns around the Northern Hemisphere.

The jet stream is driven by the difference in temperature between the Arctic and the temperate zones. The bigger the difference, the faster the jet stream flows.

However, Francis notes that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, which will lessen the effect of the jet stream.

“If we warm the arctic faster, then it’s decreasing the temperature difference and causing the jet stream to get weaker,” explained Francis.

A weaker jet stream is wavier, she says. Think of a stream flowing down a mountain; the steeper the height difference, the faster and straighter it runs. On level ground, that stream can meander.

As the jet stream meanders, it pulls hot weather up from the tropics or cold weather down from the Arctic.

“As these waves get larger, they tend to move more slowly from west to east. So, as they do that, whatever weather they’re causing down at the surface also changes more slowly,” said Francis.

The result is that heat waves, cold snaps and rainstorms last longer. However, Francis is quick to warn against drawing conclusions too hastily.

“It could be true, but at the moment I don’t think the evidence is there to really strongly argue the case,” cautioned Francis.

University of Exeter climate scientist James Screen is one of those not convinced.

Screen says the new study only shows a few scattered areas of the globe where the link between sea ice loss and heat waves are significant, according to mathematical tests.

“Which implies either that the relationship is quite weak, or actually, it could be interpreted that the relationship doesn’t exist at all,” said Screen.

Screen also pointed out that researchers have just begun to study the impact of Arctic melting on global weather.

“It’s a hot topic, but there’s a lot of work to be done. The jury’s still out on whether Arctic ice is influencing weather extremes,” said Screen.

It is an important area of research, experts say. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb, there is more Arctic melting to come.
http://www.voanews.com/content/study-lins-arctic-melting-extreme-weather/1806297.html

Icy weather turns fatal; more than 2,000 flights canceled

A series of snowy and icy storms swept through the southern and northeastern United States over the weekend, leaving at least five people dead and causing the cancellation of thousands of flights -- including more than 1,000 just at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport on Sunday. 

Some parts of north Texas received as much as four inches of sleet and ice -- a treacherous situation for drivers and travelers.

At least three storm-related deaths were reported in the Dallas area Saturday and Sunday, according to police reports reviewed by the Dallas Morning News. A 26-year-old man died after his car hit an icy patch and slammed into a tree; a 75-year-old woman died after slipping on some ice in her yard; and a woman in her mid-40s was found dead in a parking lot, possibly due to exposure to the cold, police said.

In Wisconsin, where some areas were expected to get six inches of snow  Sunday, at least two drivers died on snowy roads, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.

Multiple traffic pileups were reported. One such accident near Racine, Wis., sent state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout, a possible Democratic candidate for governor, to the hospital, according a posting on her Facebook page.

Americans who were lucky enough to stay home during the chilly, snowy, icy late-autumn weather could watch it on television. Several NFL games continued even as heavy snow obscured the field. Groundskeepers plowed out a strip every 10 yards so players would have some gauge of their position. Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington, D.C., and Baltimore were hit especially hard.

The National Weather Service said some areas of the northeast received at least eight inches of snow. 

"It’s going to be hazardous traveling tonight, and we're looking at more rain on the way, and it could freeze on contact," said Kevin Witt, a National Weather Service meteorologist for the Baltimore/Washington D.C. area. 

Witt said that rather than a single storm sweeping up the East Coast, a series of smaller disturbances have been bringing waves of trouble, especially as moisture in the area combines with freezing temperatures.

“We have not been above freezing for quite some time, so freezing rain is a definite threat for us even as the snow starts to move away," Witt said, adding: "We’re already getting some reports of rain and freezing rain mixing in."

Almost 400 flights were canceled going in and out of Washington, D.C.-area airports Sunday, with more than 300 others reported canceled at Philadelphia International Airport as of Sunday afternoon, according to flight-tracking service FlightAware.

Philadelphia weather service meteorologists reported that some areas were receiving as much as three inches of snow an hour.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-icy-weather-20131208,0,3791938.story#ixzz2mvio9jVf

Portland weather: The deep freeze continues overnight Saturday and into Sunday

Don't put the hats and gloves away yet. In fact, pull out more layers because the big chill in the Portland Metro area will continue overnight and well into Sunday, when it's supposed to stay clear and cold, cold, cold.

Overnight lows will drop well below freezing into the single digits, with some of the lowest temperatures since 1972, according to the National Weather Service. Tomorrow's high will be only about 27 degrees -- though be happy for sunshine and clear skies -- but take precautions if you must be outside. Remember, frost bite can occur in less than 30 minutes, and you can get into hypothermia if you don't dress appropriately.

Oregon isn't alone in subzero weather. A big swath of the nation is dealing with a late fall cold snap that is being blamed for a handful of deaths and has forced people to deal with frigid temperatures, power outages by the thousands and treacherous roads.

Weather forecasters say the powerful weather system has Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic in its icy sights next.

Temperatures in Montana and South Dakota were more than 20 degrees below zero during the day Saturday while much of the Midwest was in the teens and single digits. Wind chill readings could drop as low as 50 below zero in northwestern Minnesota, weather officials said.

Icy conditions were expected to last through the weekend from Texas to Ohio to Tennessee, and Virginia officials warned residents of a major ice storm likely to take shape Sunday, resulting in power outages and hazards on the roads.

In California, four people died of hypothermia in the San Francisco Bay area and about a half-dozen traffic-related deaths were blamed on the weather in several states.

http://www.oregonlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2013/12/portland_weather_the_deep_free.html

EF2 Tornado Confirmed in North Carolina Following Tuesday Night Severe Weather

An EF2 tornado injured three people in North Carolina Tuesday night, damaging structures along the state's southeastern coast.

The tornado was confirmed by a National Weather Service survey crew Wednesday morning due to condominium damage in Atlantic Beach, N.C. The survey was ongoing and more information would be distributed as it was found by the crew, according to the NWS. "Eastern North Carolina can pick up these overnight/early-morning tornadoes," said weather.com senior meteorologist Jon Erdman. "An F3 tornado tore through Riegelwood, N.C. just before sunrise on Nov. 16, 2006, killing eight."

Atlantic Beach officials say two people suffered minor injuries when the roof blew off their condominium.

A student at Carteret Community College in Morehead City was struck by debris but was not seriously injured. The school canceled classes Wednesday because of the damage and said classes would resume Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Carteret General Hospital also suffered minor damage.

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/north-carolina-severe-weather-20131127

Winter Storm Cleon Targets Western U.S

The Weather Channel has named Winter Storm Cleon, the third named winter storm of the 2013-14 season. Cleon will usher in a period of very cold weather across much of the western and northern U.S., along with zones of significant snowfall.

Let's start with the outlook for snow and ice, beginning in the Northwest. Snow levels will drop Sunday night as a Pacific cold front slides into the Pacific Northwest, bringing snow to lower and lower elevations within the Cascades, Bitterroots, and Tetons through Monday.

Given the trajectory of the attendant upper-level trough diving more toward the south and southeast into the West, cold Arctic air will be pulled not only down the Front Range of the Rockies, but also into the Great Basin and even into the I-5 corridor of western Washington and western Oregon. Thus, a few snow showers are possible even in these low elevations starting Monday.

Before the cold air arrives, heavy rainfall could lead to some localized flooding problems, particularly in western Washington where flood watches have been issued.

The snowfall will create significant impacts to travel through the mountain passes including Sherman Pass in northeast Washington and Stevens and Snoqualmie Passes in the Cascades. Several inches of snow will be likely in the passes with well over a foot at higher elevations of the Cascades through Bitterroots through Monday. Seattle and Portland could see some snow mix in with rain as early as Monday, mainly on the higher hills.Tuesday into Wednesday, the deep upper-trough and cold front continue plowing south, spreading snow into the Sierra Nevada, Wasatch and Rockies. While this is happening, another broad area of potentially heavy snow and pockets of mixed wintry precipitation may develop behind the Arctic front in the High Plains of Montana and Wyoming, spreading into parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-cleon-forecast-20131201

Indonesian Volcano Keeps Erupting

JAKARTA, Indonesia—A volcano in the northern part of Indonesia’s Sumatra island erupted six times early Monday, sending volcanic ash up to 2,000 meters in the air after days of heightened activity, the country’s disaster agency said.

The National Agency for Disaster Management said the eruptions at Mount Sinabung occurred between 1 a.m. and 9 a.m., with winds pushing ash to the east and southeast, away from Indonesia’s third largest city of Medan.

The eruptions come a day after Indonesia raised the alert status for Sinabung to the highest level, forcing the evacuation of more than 5,000 people in the area immediately surrounding the volcano. More than 11,000 people altogether have been evacuated since the volcano began erupting sporadically in September.

No fatalities have been reported since the eruptions began, but they have prompted flight warnings.

Sinabung, about 50 kilometers from Medan, a city of more than two million people, is one of several volcanoes that have shown increased activity in recent months. Four other major volcanoes are under observation due to the high potential for eruption.

Indonesia has many active volcanoes because the archipelagic country lies on the Pacific Ring of Fire, which sees frequent earthquakes and volcanic activity. It is home to some of the world’s most famous volcanic eruptions, including the Mt. Toba super-eruption around 74,000 years ago in North Sumatra that created what is today the world’s largest volcanic lake, and the eruption of Mt. Krakatoa, which lies off West Java, in 1883.http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/11/25/indonesian-volcano-keeps-erupting-after-put-on-highest-alert/

Countries Most At Risk From Climate Change

By the end of the next decade, nearly a third of the world's economic output will come from countries facing the most immediate impacts from climate change, according to a new report on climate vulnerability and environmental risk released this week in the U.K.

The report from Maplecroft, a U.K.-based risk analysis consulting firm, found that 31 percent of global economic output will come from countries that will face "high" to "extreme" risks from the impacts of climate change by 2025, more than double what the company found when it began researching climate impacts back in 2008.

More frequent and extreme weather events – like drought, floods and severe storms – are expected to pose increasingly serious threats to 67 nations the report identifies in its Climate Change Vulnerability Index, many of which lie along or near the equator in Africa, southeast Asia and Central America.

The 10 countries named by the report as most at risk from the economic impacts of climate change are, in order and starting with the worst: Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Haiti, South Sudan, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Ethiopia.

Many large nations with rapidly growing populations and economies also are at "extreme" risk, the report adds, including India, Pakistan, and Vietnam; others labeled "high" risk include Indonesia, Thailand, Kenya, and China.

What the report makes clear is that many countries in developing countries that are becoming more important to the world economy are doing so at a time when they're also becoming more exposed to the risks of climate change, with disastrous results in some cases.

http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/countries-front-lines-climate-change-20131101

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E to Pass Near Baja California

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E formed on Friday, November 1st, along the Mexican Pacific coast and a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo,Mexico.

The depression is expected to marginally gain strength over the next few days, and would be named "Sonia" when it hits tropical storm status. 

After spinning over the open waters south of Baja California, increasing southwest winds aloft should slingshot the storm into western Mexico, possibly brushing the southern Baja peninsula (including Cabo,San Lucas) late Sunday night into early next week.

Tropical storm-force winds, locally heavy rain, and a threat of high surf and rip currents are the primary threats with this system for parts of western Mexico and the southern Baja peninsula.

The Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the west coast of Mexico, including the areas between Topolobampo and La Cruz.

In the U.S., some moisture from this system could get pulled up into Texas early next week.

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-depression-eighteen-e-storm-hurricane-sonia-mexico-pacific-20131030

Thousands of residents lose power as severe weather moves through Indiana

INDIANAPOLIS - Thousands of residents in central Indiana woke up without electricity Friday after severe weather moved across the state Thursday evening, leaving a trail of downed trees and power lines. 

High winds and heavy rain accompanied the storms, prompting tornado watches and severe thunderstorm warnings.There were reports of strong wind gusts up to 70 miles per hour as the system moved through the state.

As the system moved out of central Indiana, many reports of downed trees and power lines came in.

As of 11:00 a.m., Indianapolis Power & Light reported almost 6,300 homes and businesses without power in Indianapolis. A majority of the outages were reported on the city's south side. 

Duke energy reported almost 1,200 outages about 11:00 a.m., with the majority of outages were in Bartholomew, Boone and Hamilton counties.

Storm Team 6 Chief Meteorologist Kevin Gregory said severe weather threats had ended to the west of the line of storms. Different segments of the storm were moving at different speeds.

A new rainfall record was set with more than 1.4 inches of rain across the state. 

http://www.theindychannel.com/news/local-news/severe-weather-moves-through-indiana

Flash Flood Concern and Severe Weather Threat for North Texas

It will be a rainy Wednesday for much of the area with some areas seeing very heavy rain and strong thunderstorms.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH has been issued for a portion of North Texas.  The counties highlighted in green below are under the Flash Flood Watch from 7am Wed thru 7am Thu.
Here is a look at an estimate of the areas that might see the heaviest rain.  As with most rain events, not everyone will see the amount of rain shown.  Rainfall amounts will vary over short distances.



A big upper level low will be moving out of the mountain west into the Plains tonight into tomorrow.

here is tropical moisture streaming into North Texas from Tropical Storm Raymond which is off the west coast of Mexico.  This moisture combined with a surge in Gulf Moisture will lead to a high amount of water vapor in the air over North Texas.  An unusually high amount of moisture is in the air for late October.  This combined with the upper level disturbance and a cold front drawing near will lead to heavy downpours in the thunderstorms. The main threat will be Localized Flooding,Damaging Winds 60+ mph, and Large Hail.
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/10/29/flash-flood-concern-and-severe-weather-threat-for-north-texas/