Unwelcome Nor'easter Poised to Snarl Wednesday Travel

After basking in record warm temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Monday, the Northeast U.S. is bracing for a Wednesday winter onslaught, as a significant Nor'easter will bring heavy snows to the roads at the same time that millions of people hit the roads in advance of the Thanksgiving holiday. The unwelcome storm will form off the coast of South Carolina Tuesday night and track north-northeastward, parallel to the coast, on Wednesday. Snow will begin in the Southern Appalachians late Tuesday night and spread northeastwards on Wednesday. Areas to the east of the I-95 corridor will start off with heavy rain, but the rain will transition to wet, heavy snow on Wednesday afternoon as cold air spills southwards along the coast. Little or no accumulation is likely in Washington D.C., which hit a pleasant 74°F on Monday. The story is different, though, in Philadelphia, where a Winter Storm Watch for 2 - 3 inches of snow was posted on Monday--even as the temperature rose to a record high for the date of 72°F. Higher snowfall amounts of 4 - 8" are possible in New York City, which also experienced a record high on Monday--64°F at Kennedy Airport. Boston will also be severely impacted beginning late Wednesday afternoon, with snows of 4 - 6" possible. Portland, Maine, which hit a record 63°F on Monday, is under a Winter Storm Watch for 4 - 8" of snow. 
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2867

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends With Below-Average Activity

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is officially in the books, ending up with below average activity--8 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) that was 63% of the 1981 - 2010 median. The 2014 numbers were below the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, and way below the averages from the active hurricane period 1995 - 2013: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 151% of the median. The death and damage statistics for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season were gratifyingly low: there were only five deaths (four from Hurricane Gonzalo in the Lesser Antilles and one from Tropical Storm Dolly in Mexico), and total damages from all storms were less than $500 million. The quiet season was due to an atmospheric circulation that favored dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, and high wind shear over the Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures were also near-average--considerably cooler than what we've gotten used to since the active hurricane period that began in 1995.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2870

Greatest 24-hour Snowfall on Record for the U.S.?

This past week some exceptional snowfall amounts were reported in northern Wisconsin (50.1” at Gile) and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (42.5” at Ishpeming 7 NNW) largely the result of some intense lake-effect snow squalls coming off Lake Superior. The accumulations occurred over approximately a 96-hour period from November 11-14. Amazing as these totals were they couldn’t compare to the official U.S. record of 75.8” at Silver Lake, Colorado in 24 hours on April 14-15, 1921, or another contender for such: the 78” at Mile 47 Camp in Alaska on February 7, 1963.The purported record snowfall from Alaska is somewhat controversial as I blogged about back on April 1, 2011. In that blog I dismissed the record as an ‘obvious’ error, either on the part of the observer or the NCDC. However, earlier this year, an informal committee of knowledgeable Alaskan-based meteorologists took another look at the record and determined it was, in fact, valid or, at least, possibly valid. 
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=315#commenttop

Bering Sea Superstorm Bottoms out at 924 mb

One of the most powerful extra-tropical storms ever to pass through the Bering Sea reportedly attained a central pressure as low as 924 mb (27.29”) on Friday night/Saturday morning local time. This may rank as the lowest pressure ever ‘analyzed’ (estimated) in the Pacific Basin from an extra-tropical storm system.Although this may be the lowest pressure ever mapped in the Bering Sea, it is likely that the storm of October 25, 1977 was considerably stronger. An actual measured barometric pressure level (by a ship docked at Dutch Harbor on Unalaska Island in the Aleutians) of 925 mb (29.31”) during that storm would tend to indicate that, at some point, during that storm’s life cycle its central pressure was probably lower than the 925 mb figure measured and thus probably lower than the 924 mb estimate for the current storm.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=314

U.S., China Reach Historic Climate Change Agreement

Stunning and welcome climate change news came out of China on Tuesday, when President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a historic joint climate commitment. The U.S. pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26 - 28% by 2025, compared with 2005 levels. In turn, China agreed to peak its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030--and sooner if possible--and to get 20% of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. In order to achieve its part of the bargain, the U.S. will need to double the pace of carbon pollution reduction from 1.2% per year from 2005-2020 to 2.3 - 2.8% per year between 2020 - 2025. In order to achieve its part of the deal, China must deploy an additional 800 - 1,000 gigawatts of nuclear, wind, solar and other zero emission generation capacity by 2030--more than all the coal-fired power plants that exist in China today, and close to total current electricity generation capacity in the United States.   
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2859

U.S. Lightning Strikes May Increase 50% Due to Global Warming

A warmer world will have much more dangerous cloud-to-ground lightni

ng capable of igniting more forest fires, according to a study published Thursday in the Journal Science. The research found that for each degree Centigrade (1.8°F) of global warming, lightning in the U.S. is expected to increase by 12%. This would result in about a 50% increase in lightning by the year 2100, assuming business-as-usual emissions result in a world that is 4°C (7°F) warmer. Main author David Romps of the University of California-Berkeley said in a press release, “This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time…the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and the more precipitation, the more lightning.”
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2860

ropical Storm Hanna Forms Near Nicaragua

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season kicked out another surprise, as Tropical Storm Hanna formed Monday morning off the coast of Nicaragua just six hours after NHC gave the system a 10% chance of development in their 2 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. Surface winds measured overnight by the ASCAT satellite showed sustained winds of 40 mph occurring off the northeast coast of Nicaragua, and visible satellite images just after sunrise on Monday morning confirmed the presence of a low-level surface circulation, prompting NHC to begin issuing tropical storm advisories. Hanna will be a short-lived storm. With a motion west-southwest at 7 mph, the center of Hanna will be over land on Monday afternoon, and passage over land should make the storm dissipate by Tuesday afternoon. 
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2843

95L No Big Deal; 100 Feared Dead, 300 Missing in Sri Lanka Landslide

An area of disturbed weather (95L) associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough of low pressure is a few hundred miles northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is headed northwestward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 95L has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity, but high wind shear of 25 - 30 knots is keeping the thunderstorms disorganized. Water vapor satellite images show that 95L has dry air to its west that is likely interfering with development.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2845

Earth Headed For its Hottest Year on Record After a Record-Warm September

September 2014 was Earth's warmest September on record, the period January - September was tied with 1998 and 2010 as the warmest first three-quarters of any year on record, and the past 12 months--October 2013 through September 2014--was the warmest consecutive 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) today. NASAalso rated September 2014 as the warmest September on record. If 2014 maintains the same temperature departure from average for the remainder of the year as was observed during January - September, it will be the warmest calendar year on record. September is the fourth time NOAA has ranked a 2014 month as the warmest on record; May, June, and August 2014 were also the warmest such months on record. 
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2837

Tropical Depression Nine Dissipates

Small and weak Tropical Depression Nine dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night, shortly after making landfall near 8 pm EDT Wednesday October 22, 2014 on the western shore of the peninsula. Mexican radar out of Sabancuy and satellite loops show that ex-TD 9 is bringing some heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters, and this activity will continue into the weekend. By Saturday, some of the spin associated with TD 9 may emerge over the Western Caribbean, and we should carefully watch this area on Sunday and Monday for tropical cyclone development--though none of our reliable models were predicting development in their Thursday morning runs. 
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2840

Invest 94L in Western Caribbean Little Threat to Develop

The remains of Tropical Depression Nine, which dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, were moving offshore of Belize into the Western Caribbean on Friday morning. This disturbance is being labeled Invest 94L by NHC. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 94L has only a few poorly-organized clusters of heavy thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis were predicting development of 94L in their Friday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. is bringing high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots to the Western Caribbean and is injecting dry air, which is discouraging development.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2841

What will winter hold for drought-plagued California?

California really needs this winter to be a wet one.

The state is now at the beginning of the fourth year of one if its worst droughts on record. The drought has been fueled by a spate of disappointing winter rainy seasons that have left meager snowpacks and diminished reservoir levels, combined with record-warm temperatures that have driven demand for the increasingly precious resource, and spurred a series of conservation measures around the state.

Hopes that the coming winter could finally bring some relief were raised when the first murmurs of an impending El Niñobegan to emerge in March. The climate phenomenon can be associated with amped up rains in the southern part of the state, and so the words “El Niño” became something of a mantra across the parched lands.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/drought-california-winter-20141024

There was no pictures.

Sea Level Variability : Redux with a king tide

It's a little too busy for me right now, so I am going to repeat my sea-level rise primer. I had a few scientist colleagues tell me it was a good one, and I am inclined to believe them. It comes with a King Tide, which must have something to do with that fall eclipse thing. This story from NPR tells me that the number of flooding tides in Annapolis has gone from 4 to 40 per year since the 1950s. The increasing flooding that is creeping up along the coast might be a little like slowly turning up the temperature on the pot full of Chesapeake crabs. The Union of Concerned Scientists has a nice new report entitled Encroaching Tides which summarizes things along the U.S. coasts.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=313

Tropical Storm Fay

Tropical Storm Fay is here, the sixth named storm of this quiet 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Fay's formation date of October 10 comes just over a month later than the typical September 8 formation date for the season's sixth named storm. Bermuda is the only land area Fay poses a threat to, and the 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Bermuda an 87% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, with the strongest winds expected to affect the island Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2826

Typhoon in Japan

Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Phanfone is steaming northwest at 11 mph towards Japan, and is likely to bring that nation serious flooding problems over the weekend. Satellite loops show that Phanfone is a large and well-organized typhoon with a prominent eye and a large area of intense thunderstorms. However, conditions for intensification are no longer as favorable, with wind shear now a high 20 knotson Friday morning. Ocean temperatures remained warm, though, near 30°C (86°F). Ocean temperatures will cool sharply and wind shear will rise further on Saturday as the typhoon approaches Japan, weakening the storm. Our two top models for predicting typhoon tracks, the GFS and European, predicted with their 00Z Friday runs that Phanfone would hit the main Japanese island of Honshu near 18 UTC on Sunday.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2817

Quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season Since 1986

The traditional busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, September, is now over, and we are on the home stretch. Just three weeks remain of the peak danger portion of the season. September 2014 ended up with just two named storms forming--Dolly and Edouard. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, only one season has seen fewer named storms form in September--1997, with Category 3 Hurricane Erika being the only September storm. Between 1995 - 2014, an average of 4.3named storms formed in September. With only five named storms so far in 2014, this is the quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986, when we also had just five named storms by the beginning of October. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), activity in the Atlantic up until October 1 has been only about 43% of the 1981 - 2010 average.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2815

US Temperatures Unusually Hot and Unusually Cold

The persistent ridge of high pressure that stagnated over the Eastern Pacific Ocean since last December has been responsible for this sharp contrast in temperature anomalies across the lower 48 states. The system caused the jet stream to flow over the top of the ridge and southward to the east of the high, thus funneling cold air into the central third of the nation. In itself this is not unusual, but what has been “unprecedented” (to quote NOAA) is how persistent this pattern has been over the past 7-8 months.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=302

Rainstorm in the Southern France

An inflow of moist air from the Mediterranean Sea resulted in a line of heavy thunderstorms that trained across the southern French districts of Gard and Herault for almost 36 hours September 16-18. The mountainous terrain of the region contributed to orographic enhancement of the rainfall and some astonishing rainfall amounts were measured. A possible new all-time 2-hour rainfall record for France of 180 mm (7.09”) was measured at Saint-Gervais-sur-Mare (Herault District) between 10 p.m. and midnight on September 16th, surpassing the previous record rainfall for a two-hour period of 178.4 mm (7.02”) at Solenzara on October 26, 1979. 
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=305

California Wildfires

The King Fire, east of Sacramento in California, has now charred 90,000 acres and burned at least 32 structures including 10 homes. It is now 35% contained thanks to a cool, moist weekend. However, the next two days will be critical in its containment since weather conditions have changed back to windy and warm. ... Nevertheless, the month of October has seen many of the worst wildfire events in California history. It is near the end of the dry season and traditionally the strongest Santa Ana and Diablo wind events (offshore flow) occur. This was the case during the state’s largest and deadliest wild fires on record: the Cedar Fire in October 2003, (see table of ‘Top 20’ above) and the Oakland/Berkeley Hills fire of October 1991 which was the costliest and deadliest wild fire in modern U.S. history. Although only 1,200 acres burned, 3,000 homes were destroyed, 25 lives lost, and over $1 billion in damage was caused.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=306#commenttop