Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Hurricanes & Global Warming

Global Warming and Hurricanes

The latest science connecting hurricanes and global warming suggests more is yet to come. Tropical storms are likely to bring:
  • higher wind speeds;
  • more precipitation; and
  • bigger storm surge in the coming decades.
Over the course of this century, maximum windspeeds could increase 2-11 percent and rainfall could increase 3-31 percent.
http://www.nwf.org/Wildlife/Threats-to-Wildlife/Global-Warming/Global-Warming-is-Causing-Extreme-Weather/Hurricanes.aspx

Breaking Records

Each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature record, which dates to 1880, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The six-month period from January to June was also the planet's warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the late nineteenth century.

Five of the first six months of 2016 also set records for the smallest respective monthly Arctic sea ice extent since consistent satellite records began in 1979, according to analyses developed by scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Maryland. The one exception, March, recorded the second smallest extent for that month.
While these two key climate indicators have broken records in 2016, NASA scientists said it is more significant that global temperature and Arctic sea ice are continuing their decades-long trends of change. Both trends are ultimately driven by rising concentrations of heat-trapping carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The extent of Arctic sea ice at the peak of the summer melt season now typically covers 40 percent less area than it did in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Arctic sea ice extent in September, the seasonal low point in the annual cycle, has been declining at a rate of 13.4 percent per decade.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-break-records

Climate Change & Chicago

To assess the impacts of climate change and to develop a plan for the future, the City of Chicago consulted leading scientists to describe various scenarios for Chicago’s climate future and how those would  impact life in the city. The results of the research are both serious and encouraging.

Since 1980, Chicago’s average temperature has increased approximately 2.6 degrees. Our current trajectory poses risks to our economy and health. They demonstrate that we need to act now to reduce our emissions, while preparing for climate changes that cannot be avoided. We face a big challenge--but we have also been granted a big opportunity. Every Chicago resident and business has a role to play in implementing the Chicago Climate Action Plan, which will not only ensure a more livable climate for the world but also for the city. The economy and quality of life could improve. Jobs could be created. New technologies will emerge.

http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/pages/climate_change_and_chicago/5.php

Year 2100

According to scientist David Archer, whose research is often featured in the renowned Nature magazine, the C02 that we are emitting from fossil fuels today will still be affecting the climate in many millenia from now. His conclusion is that even though the majority of C02 emitted from burning a single tonne of coal or oil today will be absorbed over a few centuries by the oceans and vegetation, approximately 25% of it will still be lingering in the atmosphere in 1,000 years, and 10% still remaining and impacting the climate in 100,000 years time.
It will then require thousands and thousands more years for its complete absorption through the natural climate cycle. As Archer puts it, “the climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel C02 to the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, longer than nuclear waste”.
Some of this future devastation is briefly discussed in the recently updated Copenhagen Diagnosis — a report authored by 26 leading climate scientists with the aim of updating the world on findings since the publication of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. According to this Copenhagen Diagnosis, regardless of when a peak in global emissions finally occurs, the global temperature cannot be expected to stop rising until several centuries later, due to the extremely long life cycle of C02.
The carbon that we are releasing into the atmosphere today is in the process of "programming" a potential 2-5 meters of sea level rise by around the year 2300.
https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/climate-change-what-happens-after-2100

Climate Change Threats

Sea levels are rising and oceans are becoming warmer. Longer, more intense droughts threaten crops, wildlife and freshwater supplies. From polar bears in the Arctic to marine turtles off the coast of Africa, our planet’s diversity of life is at risk from the changing climate.
Greenhouses gases, such as carbon dioxide, trap heat in the atmosphere and regulate our climate. These gases exist naturally, but humans add more carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels for energy (coal, oil, and natural gas) and by clearing forests. Greenhouse gases act like a blanket. The thicker the blanket, the warmer our planet becomes. At the same time, the Earth’s oceans are also absorbing some of this extra carbon dioxide, making them more acidic and less hospitable for sea life.
The increase in global temperature is significantly altering our planet’s climate, resulting in more extreme and unpredictable weather. For instance, heat waves are becoming more frequent and many places are experiencing record droughts followed by intense rainfalls.
Humans and wild animals face new challenges for survival because of climate change. More frequent and intense drought, storms, heat waves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and warming oceans can directly harm animals, destroy the places they live, and wreak havoc on people’s livelihoods and communities.
U.S. Cities at Risk
As climate change worsens, dangerous weather events are becoming more frequent or severe. People in cities and towns around the United States are facing the consequences, from heat waves and wildfires to coastal storms and flooding.

http://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/effects-of-climate-change

Great Barrier Reef

Devastating images showing the complete destruction of coral colonies on the Great Barrier Reef have been obtained by Guardian Australia and illustrate what is happening to coral there that would fill an area the size of Scotland.
They reveal the rapid death of coral impacting much of the Great Barrier Reef, with estimates that as much as half of the coral in the northern third of the 2000km reef had this fate.
Justin Marshall, a biologist at the University of Queensland, says more than 90% of the coral around Lizard island is dead or dying.
“These photos show a story … The shocking thing to think about is what you’re seeing there is happening over a 1000-kilometre stretch of the reef, to at least half of it. An area of the Great Barrier Reef the size of Scotland has coral that is dying right now. Or dead – probably dead.”


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/12/great-barrier-reef-devastating-images-tell-story-of-coral-colonies-destruction

Cause of London's 1952 "Killer Fog" Revealed

London may be known for its drizzly weather, but in 1952 the city's quintessential fog cover turned deadly, and no one knew why — until now.
For five days in December 1952, a fog that contained pollutants enveloped all of London. By the time the dense fog cover lifted, more than 150,000 people had been hospitalized and at least 4,000 people had died. Researchers now estimate that the total death count was likely more than 12,000 people, as well as thousands of animals. Despite its lethal nature, the exact cause and nature of the killer fog has largely remained a mystery. Recently, a team of researchers has determined the likely reasons for its formation.
Researchers have for a long time connected emissions from burning coal with the killer fog, but the specific chemical processes that led to the deadly mix of pollution and fog were not fully understood. To determine what turned the fog into a killer, an international team of scientists from China, the U.S. and the U.K. recreated the fog in a lab using results from laboratory experiments and atmospheric measurements from Beijing and Xi’an, two heavily polluted cities in China. 
Study lead author Renyi Zhang, an atmospheric scientist at Texas A&M University, said that sulfate was a big contributor to the deadly London fog. Sulfuric acid particles, which formed from the sulfur dioxide that was released from the burning of coal, were also a component of the fog. The question was, How did sulfur dioxide get turned into sulfuric acid?
"Our results showed that this process was facilitated by nitrogen dioxide, another co-product of coal burning, and occurred initially on natural fog," Zhang said in a statement. "Another key aspect in the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfate is that it produces acidic particles, which subsequently inhibits this process."
The natural fog contained larger particles, Zhang explained, with the smaller acidic particles evenly distributed throughout. When those fog particles evaporated, an acidic-haze was left covering the city.
The 1952 killer fog led to the creation of the Clean Air Act, which the British Parliament passed in 1956. Researchers still consider it the worst air pollution event in European history.
The air of cities in China, which is often heavily polluted, has a chemistry that's similar to the killer fog in London, Zhang and his colleagues found. China has battled air pollution for decades, and it is home to 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities, according to the researchers. For instance, air pollution in Beijing often far exceeds the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's acceptable air standards.
The researchers said that the main difference between China's smog and the killer London fog is that China's haze is made up of much smaller nanoparticles. Also, the formation of sulfate is only possible with ammonia, the scientists added.
"In China, sulfur dioxide is mainly emitted by power plants. Nitrogen dioxide is from power plants and automobiles, and ammonia comes from fertilizer use and automobiles," Zhang said. "Again, the right chemical processes have to interplay for the deadly haze to occur in China. Interestingly, while the London fog was highly acidic, contemporary Chinese haze is basically neutral."
A better understanding of air chemistry is key to developing effective regulatory actions in China, Zhang said.
"We think we have helped solve the 1952 London fog mystery and also have given China some ideas of how to improve its air quality," Zhang said. "Reduction in emissions for nitrogen oxides and ammonia is likely effective in disrupting this sulfate-formation process."
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2016/12/13/mystery-solved-cause-londons-1952-killer-fog-revealed.html