Monday, December 3, 2012

Does the Saffir-Simpson Scale Need an Improvement?

The Saffir-Simpson Scale, used to measure wind speed in hurricanes, hasn't had such a great run over the last couple of years.
It isn't the fault of the scale, though -- it has always been solely a measure of wind speed, and sometimes, winds don't depict the true strength of a storm. Hurricane Isaac came ashore with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (a low-end Category 1 hurricane) but created a water rise of more than 11 feet at Shell Beach, La.
When the water rises that high, that fast, the danger doesn't always translate when the scale insists it's a minimal hurricane. What if there was another way to categorize these storms? The Weather Channel is not trying to change the scale or reinvent the way the public looks at hurricanes, but the discussion is worthwhile.
 
National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Rick Knabb addressed the need to bring a measure of storm surge into the warning system, much the way hurricane and tropical storm warnings are issued when the coastline is threatened.
"We've been working toward a new storm surge warning for a few years now," said Knabb in a Reuters interview. "And Debby, Isaac and Sandy show us how much we really need to hit the accelerator on getting that storm surge warning out the door."
Storm surge is never the same across the storm and may be altered by the makeup of a coastline, but forecasts for storm surge are already issued when a tropical system nears land. It might change as the storm morphs, but is there a possibility of classifying storm surge on a 1-to-5 scale? Since height of water rise changes drastically from one area of the coast to another spot nearby, perhaps a scale to measure how far the water penetrates onto the coast could be an option for measurement instead.

Does the Saffir-Simpson Scale Need an Improvement?

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