National Weather Service: Drought to intesify in coming months as North Texas looks warm and dry through February

This afternoon the National Weather Service posted its long-range winter outlook for North Texas, which gets us from today, more or less, to the end of February. Long story short: It’ll be warmer than usual (no surprise) and about average when it comes to rainfall (as opposed to the wet winter of 2011-’12). Which means …

“Well, it’s not the ideal scenario for improving our drought situation,” says meteorologist Eric Martello in the NWS Fort Worth office. Martello says the average rainfall for North Texas from December through February is 7.34 inches, and that’s about what we should expect — which is bad news following the bone-dry months of October and November.

“On the flip side,” Martello says, the long-range forecast “is not saying we’ll be below average, which is a good thing. We may stay steady, but if we do get worse it’ll be a slower process. But another thing we have to worry about is the fact our fire-weather concerns start to ramp up because of warmer temperatures.”

We’ll still see some Arctic fronts this winter — beginning midday Sunday, when that cold front is expected to reach Dallas-Fort Worth and drop morning highs from ’round 70 to the upper 20s and low 30s by late night. But, says Martello, they won’t linger for long if and when they do make it this far this winter.

“We can get one next week and be above average three days later,” he says. “Outbreaks last maybe a couple of days, perhaps up to three days when they’re extreme, but then they modify, and you won’t see another one for a few weeks.”

Fact is, says the NWS, there could be more Arctic outbreaks this winter. The long-range forecast posted today says the warm and dry winter is due to the fact there’s El Niño nor La Niña this year; it’s what weatherfolk call “ENSO neutral.” And, says the weather service, “Severe Arctic outbreaks are more common during ENSO neutral winters.” Why? Hard to say: “They just happen to show up in the past more frequently,” says Martello. They just don’t stick around for very long.

In other words: If you want Christmastime weather, enjoy what’s coming Sunday. It won’t stick around too long, as highs bounce from the low 40s on Monday to the low to mid-50s by Tuesday and Wednesday to near 70 by week’s end.

As for those murmurs of wintery precipitation with Sunday’s cold front, Martello says: Not so fast.

“A couple of models are hinting at it, but most say it’ll stay in Oklahoma and the Panhandle,” he says. “Some models show some possibly just north of DFW. But models are differing on the strengh and timing and amount of moisture. We’re waiting to see more continuity before we pinpoint if and where there will be some. But we are aware of it.”

Link: http://thescoopblog.dallasnews.com/2012/12/national-weather-service-drought-to-intesify-in-coming-months-as-north-texas-looks-warm-and-dry-through-february.html/