John Maser takes his 17-month-old daughter Aurelia for a ride up the slope. He dressed up for the occasion of closing day at Arapahoe Basin wearing a man of leisure style boating outfit in this May 6th, 2012 file photo. (Helen H. Richardson, The Denver Post)
A newstudysays a warming climate could cost the country's winter tourism industry as much as $2 billion a season as snowpack dwindles.
The report by Protect Our Winters and the Natural Resources Defense Council— dubbed "Winter Tourism in Peril" and released Thursday as Colorado endures a drystartto the ski season — says the country's $12.2 billion ski-and-snowmobile industry is waning as warmer temperatures melt snow and revenues.
The analysis — authored by a pair of doctoralstudentsfrom the University of New Hampshire — concludes that rising winter temperatures since 1970 are threatening winter tourism in 38 states. The report said the difference between a good snow year and a bad snow year from 1999 to 2010 cost the industry between $810 million and $1.9 billion; 13,000 to 27,000 jobs; and 15 million skier visits.
Looking forward, the researchers estimate snow depth could decline to zero at lower elevations in the West and that the ski season in the East could shrink by as much as half in the coming decades.
The researchers said Colorado resorts and resort communities lost $154 million in revenue and 1,867jobs ina bad snow year. Colorado ski resorts' experience, however, wasn't nearly that dismal last year, the worst season for snow in several decades. The local numbers show that
Colorado's resorts have swiftly adapted to low-snow years.
The study was welcomed by some in the ski industry, though others questioned its long-term projections.
Auden Schendler, the environmental-affairs chief at Aspen Skiing Co., said the report puts financial metrics behind what everyone in the ski industry has known for years: Climate change hurts.
"This data suggests there is monetized risk and the solution should be for the ski-industry leaders and trade-group leaders to get off their (fannies) and move as if there was an existential threat to the business," Schendler said. "I'm hoping this report will drive radical change. Skiers are optimists. Here's an opportunity to do what we do, which is get in there and be active and solve problems in the world."
Melanie Mills, president of Colorado Ski Country, which represents 21 of the state's 25 ski areas, said dry years are always a challenge and that resorts are fighting to reduce their impacts on the climate.
"Action on climate change is important, and we will advocate for it," she said, noting that projecting sweeping declines in the resort industry down the road does not account for resort action. "I would think that any long-term conclusions about the economic impact of climate change would be difficult to draw with accuracy, as you're not taking into account adaptations that would be made to the resort economies."
The National Ski Areas Association issued a release pointing to the industry's decade-old policy on climate change, with resorts nationwide working to reduce impacts, educate skiers and advocate for climate legislation.
Colorado ski resorts see 12 million skier visits annually and employ 37,000 workers who earn $1.2 billion and stir $2.2 billion in economic activity.
The state did endure declines in skier visits between its snowiest and least snowy seasons in the years of the study — 11.13 million in the relatively dry 2001-02 and 12.54 million in very snowy 2007-08.
The report did not include analysis of the 2010-11 ski season — one of the snowiest in decades — and the 2011-12 season, the least snowy in several decades. The state saw a difference of more than 1 million skier visits between those seasons, yet most of those visits were in-state visitors who spend less. Dramatic declines in revenues and jobs did not happen between the decade's highest and lowest snow seasons.
Wintertime taxable sales in Vail, Aspen, Crested Butte, Telluride, Breckenridge, Winter Park and Steamboat Springs — which account for nearly half of the state's skier visits —climbed from 2010-11 to 2011-12, reaching $1.1 billion and almost matching the high point set in 2007-08.Employment in those resort counties climbed 0.3 percent between 2010-11 and 2011-12.
"What you are seeing on the ground is not necessarily what our modeling can see," said Antonia Herzog, assistant director of the Natural Resource Defense Council's Climate Center. "The question, ultimately, is where is this all headed, and it's not headed in the right direction. My personal view is that we are just starting to see the impacts that lie ahead with the extreme weather we are seeing across the country."
Colorado is sending some mixed economic signals, said report author Matt Magnusson, pointing to flat employment growth between the two very different seasons despite an increase in spending.
"There is certainly evidence of negative economic impacts due to the poor snowfall," he said. "Colorado was not immune from its impacts. Given the heavy marketing muscle ... strong season-pass sales, location appeal, and the resources of the corporations, it certainly makes sense that Colorado may have protected itself to a greater extent than other areas of the country."
Jason Blevins: 303-954-1374, jblevins@denverpost.com or twitter.com/jasontblevins