We are now past most of the main peak, and even in active "Cape Verde" seasons (storms developing in the eastern Atlantic), that usually winds down after approximately today's date (last week in September).
In October, when there's on average a secondary peak, the primary development area typically shifts back to the Caribbean and Gulf, like early in the season, with also some storms forming in the subtropical/central Atlantic.
Currently there is no sign of any storms forming in the tropics. The disturbance well east of Puerto Rico looks somewhat impressive on the satellite image below but the bark is worse than both the bite and the prospects for development. The southwest Caribbean will be an area to watch over the next couple of weeks but the current batch of thunderstorms there is not expected to further organize.
The outcome of this whole thing is still several days away, and in the past with winter storms and tropical storms we've seen critical shifts in track forecasts in these time frames, but in this case it would take a radical change in forecasts of track and intensity to produce a significantly different result than what is currently expected, and at least for now the models aren't vacillating nearly as much as they were earlier this week.
No comments:
Post a Comment