Government Shutdown: How Weather Forecasting and Collecting Data Has Become More Difficult

Alan Raymond Published: Oct 11, 2013, 10:31 AM EDT weather.com

NOAA

NOAA Shutdown

Government shutdown message on noaa.gov's website.

The partial government shutdown has been dominating the headlines for more than a week now. Hundreds of thousands of Americans have been furloughed and frustration over the political impasse is palpable.
The National Weather Service has escaped the shutdown, but NWS forecasters are working without pay to protect life and property. There may not be caution tape wrapped around NWS offices like you'll see at our National Parks, but the lack of funding is beginning to impact how meteorologists forecast your weather, and how they get critical information to you.

Running Low on Essential Supplies

NWS offices are like any other business. They need certain tools to function.
Dan Sobien, the president of the National Weather Service Employees Organization, told weather.com some offices are running out of items that are critical to collecting data.
“The worst I can find is Lihue, Hawaii," Sobien said. He explained the office has less than a week's supply of balloons, helium and instrument packs left.
"They put in an emergency order [and] have not heard anything back.”
Sobien adds that at least one sounding launch station near Boston isn’t sending up weather balloons because they can’t pay the contractor. Weather balloons are important because they're launched every 12 hours from each National Weather Service office throughout the country. The information the balloons collect gives meteorologists an idea of what the atmosphere looks like from the ground up.

Weather Ballon is Prepared for Launch

This balloon data is also used in forecast models. Before models are run, the sounding data provides an initial picture, or "initial conditions," of the current state of the nation's weather. Losing balloon data could mean gaps or erroneous information in the model output, which could affect forecasting.  While not a major issue at the moment, new materials are difficult to come by.
“Apparently, getting supplies to do the sounding involves some bureaucratic finesse,” Sobien explained.
Sobien also revealed that preventative maintenance on all radars and automated weather stations sites, called ASOS stations, have been halted.
As of Thursday morning, Sobien said “flight critical ASOS freezing rain sensors are out-of-service at 36 eastern region airports.”  Some of the larger airports include Baltimore-Washington International in Baltimore, Reagan National and Dulles International in Washington, D.C., Newark Liberty International in New Jersey, and LaGuardia and John F. Kennedy International in New York.

National Climatic Data Center

The National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. houses hundreds of millions of archived weather observations, from surface readings to upper air sounding data to offshore buoy data. The NCDC is a one-stop shop for weather information, recorded from decades ago until at least Sept. 30, the final day before the shutdown.
The government access to that data has now been severed, limiting meteorologists' ability to compare and contrast historical data with current conditions and future forecasts. Typically, at the beginning of the month, the NCDC will release an assessment of the previous month’s climatology. So far, that has not been the case in October.
Previous climatological events could help meteorologists be better informed about how an upcoming event, especially winter storms, might develop. Shutting down access to this critical data hampers meteorologists' ability to develop accurate forecasts.

Weather Model Developers Sent Home

Weather models are some of the most important tools for forecasting weather. Upper air and sounding data, in addition to surface observations and satellite data, are put into a computer model that then produces weather predictions.

GFS Model Data

The image above shows model output from the Global Forecast Systems (GFS) computational model.

But according to a recent blog post by Dr. Marshall Shepherd, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Georgia and current president of the American Meteorological Society, the furloughing of NOAA atmospheric science experts, who update and enhance these models, could cause delays in the rollout of the improvements.
“If the shutdown persists, it would be hard not to wonder if some improvement is being delayed that could save a life in 2015,” Shepherd said.

National Aeronautical and Space Administration

The nation’s space agency, NASA, not only launches rockets with satellites and payloads bound for the International Space Station, but it also provides invaluable satellite data that many meteorologists use.
However, as of Oct. 1, 97 percent of NASA's employees have been furloughed, leaving some to speculate that the shutdown could affect the timeliness and continuity of satellite data. Shepherd also hit on the issues NASA has had with data delays and gaps even before the shutdown.
“If the shutdown persists, I would imagine that this adds to the potential for delays or a gap,” he wrote.
While some of NASA's missions like the Asteroid Watch, Mars Rover and Cassini are still operating, their staff aren't active on social media, as they normally would be.
  However, according to NBC News, some space information is coming from NASA spokesman Bob Jacobs' personal account Twitter account. The lack of NASA tweeting has also started the hashtag #ThingsNASAMightTweet

National Weather Service Media Relations

It's reporters' jobs to confirm stories in an official capacity. The Weather Channel is no different. Here at The Weather Channel, we often reach out to officials to ensure that the information we’re bringing you is accurate.
The shutdown has made the process of confirming information through the federal government much more difficult. A voicemail message at the NWS Public Affairs office says: “Thank you for calling the Public Affairs office for the National Weather Service. We are currently unavailable because of the shutdown of government operations. If you leave a message, we will be unable to respond until funding is appropriated and the shutdown ends. We sincerely regret any inconvenience. Thank you.”
While we can work to confirm information at NWS local weather forecast offices or at the state level, as well as through the NWS chat rooms, and calling NWS meteorologists and local or state EMA officials, it’s much harder to confirm certain details of weather-related stories.

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