Parts of the Midwest are in the early stages of a multi-day episode of strong to severe thunderstorms, something most of the country has not seen much of lately.
September brought only one-sixth the average number of tornadoes nationwide, and there has not been a calendar day with 10 or more tornadoes since mid-June. This quiet spell may be broken over the next few days.
Thunderstorm Forecast Next 12 Hours
Severe Threat Thursday
Severe Threat Friday
A few strong to severe thunderstorms erupted Wednesday afternoon, particularly over northeast Nebraska, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. Several communities reported hail with these storms. This activity should press east and southeast through late Wednesday night, with a gradual weakening trend expected.
The severe storm potential will ramp up in the central states Thursday and Friday as a strong cold front moves across the region. This could potentially be the most significant severe weather outbreak in at least a month, with the potential for tornadoes.
Thursday's severe thunderstorms should be more numerous in the Corn Belt, from Nebraska and northern Kansas to Iowa and northwest Missouri, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. This severe threat is expected to persist into the overnight hours, as well.
Friday appears to be the day of greatest concern as a low pressure system intensifies in the Missouri Valley. Severe thunderstorms will erupt from eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska into Iowa, northwest Missouri, southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin (shown in the map at right). Damaging straight-line winds, very large hail, and tornadoes are possible, particularly near the surface low in eastern Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin. A few severe storms are also possible as far south as Oklahoma along the advancing cold front, with a threat of damaging straight-line winds and hail.
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