Severe Weather: Tornadoes, Damaging Storms to Threaten Midwest

Parts of the Midwest are in the early stages of a multi-day episode of strong to severe thunderstorms, something most of the country has not seen much of lately.

September brought only one-sixth the average number of tornadoes nationwide, and there has not been a calendar day with 10 or more tornadoes since mid-June. This quiet spell may be broken over the next few days.

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Severe Threat Thursday

Severe Threat Friday

Severe Threat Saturday

A few strong to severe thunderstorms erupted Wednesday afternoon, particularly over northeast Nebraska, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. Several communities reported hail and flash flooding with these storms.

The severe storm potential will ramp up in the central states Thursday and Friday as low pressure intensifies along an existing frontal system. This could potentially be the most significant severe weather outbreak in at least a month, with the potential for tornadoes. 

Thursday's severe thunderstorms should be more numerous in the Corn Belt, from Nebraska and northern Kansas to Iowa and northwest Missouri, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. This severe threat is expected to persist into the overnight hours as well. In addition, flash flooding is a threat over central and eastern Nebraska, where heavy rain fell in many areas late Wednesday.

Friday is the day of greatest concern as a low pressure system intensifies in the Missouri Valley. Severe thunderstorms will erupt near the low pressure center and attendant warm front from eastern Kansas and eastern Nebraska into Iowa, northwest Missouri, southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin (shown in the map at right). The greatest threat of severe weather will be for parts of northern and central Iowa as well as southern Minnesota. Damaging straight-line winds, very large hail, and tornadoes (one or two of which could be strong) are possible in this zone. A few severe storms are also possible as far south as Oklahoma and northern Texas along the advancing cold front, with a threat of damaging straight-line winds and hail.

Friday Threat Areas: (Minneapolis | Des Moines | Kansas City | Omaha | Oklahoma City) 

Saturday will bring the threat of thunderstorms and some severe weather farther east into the western Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley.