Nearly one year after Hurricane Sandy ravaged the East Coast, the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has not produced a single land-falling hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above-average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its inactivity.
The tropical season doesn’t officially end until November 30, but it would take a barrage of late-season storms to bring the season up to average levels, let alone above average, something that forecasters say is unlikely.
While pre-season outlooks rarely, if ever, have pinpoint accuracy, they don’t usually miss by such a large margin. In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected that there would likely be between 13 and 20 named storms (with sustained winds of at least 39 mph). Of those storms, NOAA projected that between seven and 11 would achieve hurricane status (winds of at least 74 mph); and that three or four would become major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 (winds of at least 111 mph).
By one measure, 2013 so far ranks as the 7th quietest season in the past 70 years. That measure uses an index known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which incorporates how many storms formed, how long they lasted, and how strong they became. If no additional storms were to form before the end of the season, 2013 would be the 4th quietest.
There has not been a major hurricane in either the North Atlantic Basin or the eastern Pacific this year, something that hasn’t happened since 1968, according to Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher and seasonal forecaster at Colorado State University.
No comments:
Post a Comment