El Niño has become a hot topic. Most people in the general public now know the term, and they have a vague idea that it is some kind of pattern in the Pacific Ocean that means the U.S. will have a warm winter…or snowy winter…or hot summer—or something. Almost every day, somewhere in the country, a meteorologist is blaming El Niño for unusual weather. The perceived wisdoms, and misunderstandings, are widespread. Atmospheric scientists are the first to acknowledge that only certain effects can be linked to a strong El Niño, and that they are unsure about others.
The current 2015–16 El Niño is one of the three strongest ever recorded. The other two occurred in 1982–83 and 1997–98. In between these events El Niño may have been weak or absent, and its cousin, La Niña, may have been strong in some seasons during that period. In the Northern Hemisphere El Niño’s effects peak during the winter, and are typically sorted out and summed up by the following April.
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