Tornado Warning False Alarms: National Weather Service Upgrades to Impact-Based Warning System

Roughly three out of every four tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service are false alarms. 

No, that's not a misprint. Only one in four tornado warnings contain a verified confirmed tornado within the warned area during the time of the warning. But that doesn't mean you should just ignore them.

On average, about 70 percent of all confirmed tornadoes occur in an active tornado-warned area. In other words, seven out of 10 confirmed tornadoes were covered by a tornado warning at the time. The success rate has doubled since the mid-1980s, thanks to Doppler radar, technology and meteorologists' better understanding of tornadic environments. 

Prior to the April 3-4, 1974 Superoutbreak, warnings were typically issued only after a tornado was already confirmed. Today, tornado warning lead time —the time from the warning is issued to the time the tornado occurs — averages around 15 minutes. There is no telling how many lives have been saved over the past few decades thanks to advance notice.

The bottom line: Meteorologists detect tornadoes when they actually occur quite well. So what's causing all the false alarms?

Striking the Balance

There's a delicate balance between trying to detect and warn for every single tornado while keeping the number of false alarms low. The more tornado warnings you issue, the higher chance of a false alarm, which increases public complacency.

"We want to err on the side of caution. It's not an option to miss one," said Chad Omitt, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service forecast office in Topeka, Kan. "We do the best we can to catch every tornado before it happens."

On the other hand, less warnings would, in theory, lessen false alarms.

"What risks are we willing to swallow in order to take a step back and not go after every weak tornado?" asked Omitt. "That's a conversation we have not yet had with emergency managers, elected officials and the media."

"A lot of these (weak, particularly EF0) tornadoes may be on the ground for a minute or two and do not kill." We'll come back to that point later.

Radar's Limitations

While Doppler radar is a linchpin of severe warning operations today, the basic fact that a radar beam's height increases with distance from the radar means it cannot detect a tornadic circulation at the ground. 

(Note: In rare cases, a debris-ball signature, explained in the video at the right, or tornado debris signature can indirectly indicate the presence of a tornado).

For example, if a suspected storm is 100 nautical miles from the radar, the center of the radar beam is over 12,000 feet above the surface.

Strong rotation aloft often does not mean a tornado is either in progress or will form. In general, only 20-25 percent of rotating supercells produce tornadoes.

For this reason, trained storm spotters and chasers remain vital, confirming a tornado is happening, or letting forecasters know the rotation is still aloft.

"The deployment of additional gap-filling radars between the current NWS sites is something that could happen as a cooperative effort between various levels of government and possibly the private sector, and help reduce the false alarm threat in the future," says severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes.

Not As Easy As You Think 

Our knowledge of the large-scale ingredients in place — wind shear, moisture, instability — during days with numerous tornadoes, as opposed to days spawning severe thunderstorms with hail and high winds, is also steadily improving.

It is easier for a forecaster to verify a tornado warning for a supercell on days with a potential for long-track, violent tornadoes. Tornado warning performance and lead times are higher on these volatile days, according to a 2008 study by Kelly Keene, Paul Schlatter, Jack Hales and Harold Brooks of NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center.

You should pay particularly close attention to tornado watches and warnings on those volatile days where you may hear the The Weather Channel, weather.com, the National Weather Service, and local media mention the phrase tornado outbreak.

Thankfully, there are very few days like that each year. The majority of severe weather days are more marginal for tornadoes. Among the challenges forecasters face in these events are:

• Nighttime tornadoes - Unless the tornado is illuminated by lightning, or power flashes are seen, or damage has already happened, these are harder to verify.
• Short-lived tornadoes embedded in squall lines may quickly form, then dissipate, and their signatures may be less pronounced.
• Tornadoes in squall lines or high-precipitation supercells may be obscured by rain, and, therefore, hard to identify as tornadoes.
• Spotter networks - You'll have plenty of spotters in, say, Oklahoma, but there are far less in sparsely-populated areas.
• Time of year - Outside of the core severe weather months during spring and early summer, the environments are more marginal, the public is less aware, and  perhaps fewer spotters available.

"We're often dealing with imperfect information," said Omitt. "We try to capture all tornadoes as best as we can before they happen with the tools we have."

Combine that with a forecaster sometimes monitoring multiple storms simultaneously, and you can understand the potential to issue a few more tornado warnings out of caution in borderline, more uncertain cases.

More Dire Warnings

Imagine a winter storm warning without giving forecast snowfall totals or a flood warning without giving river crest information. For years, all tornado warnings were essentially the same.

The fact is not all tornado threats are equal.

In the National Weather Service's central region, 97 percent of tornado fatalities from 2008-2012 were caused by only 13 percent of all tornadoes, those rated EF2 or stronger on the Enhanced-Fujita scale. 

The National Weather Service is hoping the expansion of impact-based warnings (IBW) to include 44 offices from Montana to Virginia to Texas in 2014 helps delineate high-impact events — like Moore, Okla., and Joplin, Mo., for example — from the vast majority of weaker tornadoes that are less likely to prove fatal.

"We have a very formal, rigid warning process," said Omitt. "We want to tell the public what we know when we know it in an easier-to-find format."

find this story at: http://www.weather.com/safety/tornadoes/tornado-warning-false-alarms-impact-based-warnings-20140418

Severe Weather Forecast: Midweek Severe Threat in Plains, Midwest; Watching Weekend Severe Storm Potential

As is typical of spring, the threat of severe weather is ramping up in the nation's midsection. In fact, we are tracking two weather systems that will spawn severe weather over the next five or six days. 

The latest details and updates on the first bout of severe storms from Wednesday through Friday are below. In addition, we are closely monitoring the potential for a more widespread severe threat this weekend starting in the Plains.

Severe Threat Through Friday

Wednesday: Scattered severe storms from southeast South Dakota to parts of Nebraska, Kansas, central/western Oklahoma and western Texas. Lack of rich moisture in the atmosphere means these storms will probably take the form of visually spectacular thunderstorms with high cloud bases in the late afternoon and evening. Some of them will probably be rotating supercells with very large hail and damaging winds; some tornadoes are possible, but with the somewhat dry air near the ground, the tornado threat may be tempered somewhat.

Thursday: Isolated to scattered severe storms from far northeast Texas to parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Any that form could spawn large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two.

Friday: Lingering threat of a few severe storms in the coastal Southeast.

see the full story at: http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/severe-weather-tracker-page

Is Climate Change to Blame for the Mount Everest Avalanche?

The icy slopes of Mount Everest have seen hundreds of deaths in the years since 1922, when seven people perished during the British Mount Everest Expedition.

An April 18 avalanche claimed at least 12 lives, in what may be the single deadliest climbing event in the history of the world's tallest mountain (29,029 feet). The death toll may rise, because other climbers are still missing, according to the BBC.

All of the deceased were guides from the ethnic Sherpa community, who were securing ropes for the start of the spring climbing season. And many Sherpas insist that Mount Everest and other mountains in the area have become more dangerous because of climate change. [Ice World: Gallery of Awe-Inspiring Glaciers]

"In 1989 when I first climbed Everest there was a lot of snow and ice, but now most of it has just become bare rock. That, as a result, is causing more rock falls, which is a danger to the climbers," said Apa Sherpa, a Nepali climber, as quoted in Discovery News. Climbing is becoming more difficult, because when you are on a [snowy] mountain you can wear crampons, but it's very dangerous and very slippery to walk on bare rock with crampons," he added.

Avalanches and climate change

Avalanches have been around for centuries, of course, and researchers can't blame any single event on climate change. Some evidence exists, however, that a warming planet and changes in precipitation may increse the likelihood of certain types of avalanches at certain times of the year.

A 2001 study from the Annals of Glaciology found that increases in temperature and precipitation could slightly decrease the risk of avalanches in mid-winter in France, but could significantly increase the risk of spring avalanches.

Those findings were echoed in a 2013 report from the journal Applied Snow and Avalanche Research, which found that in Canada's Glacier National Park, an increase in rain (instead of snow) during the winter could result in greater instability in the snowpack, leading to more late-winter avalanches.

Glacial lake outburst flooding

Apa Sherpa — who has conquered Everest more than 20 times — was once a farmer in the Himalayan region, but he turned to mountaineering after losing his home and his farm after a glacial lake outburst flood in 1985.

Researchers have warned that glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a particularly disastrous effect of climate change. As glaciers melt, immense lakes form behind relatively weak ice dams. When the ice dams are breached, the resulting burst of water and debris can cause sudden, catastrophic flooding.

"In the Himalayas, catastrophic risks of GLOFs have increased in recent years because most Himalayan glaciers have experienced remarkable downwasting under a warming climate," according to the authors of a 2013 study published in the journal PLOS ONE.

The researchers found that between 1990 and 2010, more than 1,000 glacial lakes in the Himalayas expanded rapidly, increasing their surface area by more than 17 percent, presenting an immediate danger to climbers and residents. "An effective monitoring and warning system for critical glacial lakes is urgently needed," the study authors wrote.

Water supplies under threat

In another alarming finding, researchers from the University of Milan in Italy announced in 2013 thatglaciers in the Mount Everest region have shrunk by 13 percent in the last 50 years, and the snowline has shifted upward by 590 feet.

The glaciers are also shrinking at a faster rate, as regional precipitation has declined since 1992 by nearly 4 inches during the pre-monsoon and winter months, the Los Angeles Times reports. The loss of these glaciers could be catastrophic, since they provide water and power for about 1.5 billion people living in Asia.

The loss of glaciers in the region isn't uniform, however. A study published in the April 2012 issue of the journal Nature Geoscience found that glaciers in the Karakoram mountain range are holding steady, and some may even be growing in size due to changes in precipitation patterns.

The future of Everest

There's some concern in the mountaineering community that mountains like the iconic Everest may be unclimbable in the near future.

"What will happen in the future I cannot say but this much I can say from my own experiences — it has changed a lot," Apa Sherpa said.

In 2012, he completed a 120-day walk named the Climate Smart Celebrity Trek with the goal of raising awareness of climate change's impact on high-altitude mountain environments.

"I want to understand the impact of climate change on other people, but also I'd like tourism to play a role in changing their lives as it has changed mine," Apa Sherpa said.

Detroit Snow Record Falls: 133-Year-Old Mark Broken By Unusually Snowy Season

Wet snow falling late Monday night into tax deadline day Tuesday shattered Detroit's long-standing seasonal snowfall record.

Through April 17, a total of 94.9 inches of snow had been measured in the 2013-14 season at Detroit's Metro Airport, topping the previous record snowiest season, 93.6 inches set in 1880-81.

This is more than double their average seasonal snowfall of 44.1 inches.

While located in the Great Lakes region, Detroit does not pick up heavy lake-effect snow, as they are located too far east of Lake Michigan and to the west and north of Lake Erie.

According to the National Weather Service in Romulus, Mich., here are some other notables about the 2013-14 winter season in the Motor City:

• Record streak of days with at least 1 inch of snow cover: (77 straight days ending on Mar. 17)
• Snowiest single month on record: (39.1 inches in January 2014; almost 89 percent of their average snow for an entire season)
• Coldest November-March period since 1911-12: (Fourth-coldest on record)
• Most days with highs failing to rise above freezing since 1903-04: (79 days; third-most on record for any season)
• Most days with lows below zero since 1983-84: (13 days; ties for seventh-most in any season)

Not to be outdone, Flint, Mich. also shattered its previous record snowiest season set in 1974-75, measuring a total of 83.9 inches of seasonal snow through Thursday, April 17.

Earlier this season, several other cities in the Midwest, and one location in the High Plains, also set seasonal snowfall records.

• Toledo, Ohio: Old record from 1977-78 was 73.1 inches
• Spooner, Wisc.: Old record from 1898-99 was 95.5 inches
• Hayward, Wisc.: Old record from 1982-83 was 106.3 inches
• Rhinelander, Wisc.: Old record from 1938-39 was 107 inches
• Petoskey, Mich.: Old record from 1970-71 was 183.9 inches
• Peoria, Ill.:  Old record from 2010-11 was 52.5 inches
• Billings, Mont.: First greater than 100-inch snow season on record dating to 1934

set more at: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/detroit-record-snow-season-20140415

Severe Weather Forecast: Isolated Severe Storms Next Few Days; Larger Threat Possible Midweek

A few severe storms are expected through Tuesday, mainly in the Plains. By midweek, the threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, may increase in the central states. Below are the forecast details for the regions affected.

Isolated Severe Storms Early This Week

Isolated severe storms are possible in several areas through Tuesday. Large hail and localized damaging wind gusts are the main concerns in the areas highlighted below.

Monday: A few severe thunderstorms are possible in the south-central states; see inset map for the specific risk area.

Tuesday: A small chance of severe thunderstorms for the High Plains of western Nebraska and western Kansas.

More Widespread Severe Threat Possible Later This Week

During the middle part of the week ahead, a potent dip in the jet stream will emerge into the nation's midsection from the Rockies. At the same time, increasing moisture will flow northward into the Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. This type of atmospheric setup is one that we see each spring and can be conducive to sparking significant severe weather.

That said, as is typical several days in advance, there remains some uncertainty in the details. This includes the magnitude of the tornado threat, timing and the exact geographic locations that will be affected.

One of the common sources of uncertainty, especially in the earlier stages of spring, is how far north moist, unstable air will be able to travel.

The two maps to the right illustrate the general areas we will be watching for severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Here is a day-by-day look at the threat (subject to change):

Wednesday: Central and southern Plains. A "cap" of warm air aloft may limit or delay thunderstorm development. Lack of rich moisture in the atmosphere means these storms will probably take the form of isolated, rapidly developing, and visually spectacular thunderstorms in the late-afternoon and evening. Some of them will probably be rotating supercells with very large hail and damaging winds; some tornadoes are possible, but with the somewhat dry air near the ground, the tornado threat may be tempered somewhat.

Thursday: From northeast Texas to parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Again, thunderstorms may be somewhat spotty in nature, but any that form could spawn large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. There is more uncertainty about the eastward movement of the parent storm system at this point, so confidence in the geographic area of Thursday's red zone is lower.

This Weekend

The American and European models disagree significantly on the details, but signs are pointing to the possibility of a more dangerous severe weather episode, including tornadoes, for Oklahoma and nearby parts of Texas and Kansas on Saturday. We still have plenty of time to monitor this situation.

Stay tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com for continuing updates as we move into the heart of the typical spring tornado season.

find this story at: http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/severe-weather-tracker-page

Where Tornadoes Strike Around the World (INTERACTIVE)

The United States averages the most tornadoes of any country in the world annually. But where else do they occur?

The NCDC says that tornadoes are most common in the middle latitudes, between about 30 to 50 degrees north or south latitude. Tornadoes have been documented on all of the world's continents, except Antarctica.

By visiting this site: http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/tornadoes-around-world-20140329 one can use the interactive tornado map in order to visualize where tornadoes occur the most. This is provided by The Weather Channel website.

Severe Weather Forecast: Damaging Winds, A Few Tornadoes Possible in the Deep South

A new storm system taking shape in the nation's midsection will continue to spawn severe weather and a risk of flooding as it sweeps eastward now through Tuesday. On the cold side of this same system, snow is falling in the Rockies and the adjacent Plains.

Below are the latest forecast details showing where thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and heavy rain will be a concern through Tuesday.

Monday:

• Scattered severe thunderstorms possible along the cold front in the South, including portions of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, northwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle.
• Damaging wind gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes possible. Maximum TOR:CON value: 3
• Locally heavy rain may trigger flash flooding, since much of this area is still saturated from heavy rain a week ago.

Tuesday:

• A few severe storms may linger near the Southeast coast, from eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula to northern Florida.
• Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, however, a few tornadoes are also possible in southeast Virginia and the eastern Carolinas.

Next threats:

• Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain, and potentially some severe weather, may rumble from the Texas Gulf Coast to Florida and the Southeast Coast Thursday through Saturday.
• A few strong t-storms may return to the Plains states this weekend.
• Neither of these events, for now, appear to be a widespread outbreak.

see this story at: http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/severe-weather-tracker-page

March 2014 Among Hottest on Record, NASA Data Show

Last month was the fourth-warmest March since modern historical temperature records began in 1880, according to data provided by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
The global mean temperature for March 2014 was about 0.7°C (about 1.26°F) higher than the 1951-1980 average, placing it fourth in line behind 2002, 2010 and 1990 among the hottest Marches on record.
Powering last March's near-record global temperatures was a "sea" of extraordinary warmth (shown in the map above, in dark and bright red colors) that stretched across much of Eastern Europe and Russia all the way to the western United States, noted weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman.
"March was indeed cold in the eastern United States, much of Canada and parts of southern South America," he said. "However, the broader picture showed a sea of warm anomalies from Europe across Russia to Alaska and the western United States."
Wildfires burned across a large swath of Siberia in early April, Weather Underground's Christopher Burt pointed out, adding that the southern Siberian city of Chemal soared to a high temperature of 83.7°F on April 2, at least 40 degrees above its average high for the day.
As the NASA-GISS graph below shows, the March temperature anomaly last month was starkest at Earth's highest latitudes:

NASA/GISS

It's worth noting that monthly temperature rankings can change and so records like these should be viewed with caution, NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt said in an email conversation with weather.com.
The difference between the top six March values are small enough, he pointed out that small differences or new information – such as a different analysis method by NOAA or the U.K.-based Hadley Centre – can change the rankings significantly. That can move a third-place ranking down to a sixth-place ranking or vice-versa, he added.
NOAA, the Hadley Centre and NASA-GISS maintain the world's three most widely-cited historical temperature databases, all of which feature records that date back to the late 1800s.

find this story at: http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/march-2014-was-4th-hottest-record-nasa-data-shows-20140414

Coolest February Since 1994 for Land Areas, According to NOAA's State of the Climate Global Report

Large areas of colder-than-average weather made February 2014 the coolest February since 1994 for the Earth's land areas, according to the monthly global State of the Climate report released Wednesday by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. At the same time, portions of the world's oceans experienced record February warmth.

Global temperatures expressed as a departure from the 20th-century average in degrees Celsius. Large areas of deep blue indicate colder-than-average conditions over North America and Central Asia. Red shades indicate above-average temperatures.

Land: Chilly February for Many Areas

The global temperature averaged over all land areas, but excluding the oceans, was still 0.31 Celsius degree (0.56 Fahrenheit degree) above the 20th-century average, making it the 44th-warmest February since 1880 over land. However, this was the lowest February reading since 1994, which was also the last cooler-than-average February over the earth's land masses.

The margin of error for the land measurement was 0.32 Celsius degree (0.58 Fahrenheit degree), indicating a very small possibility that the globally-averaged temperature over land may have actually been near or slightly below average.

Large areas of below-average temperatures over North America and Central Asia helped to temper the February figures. Parts of the U.S. Midwest and the Canadian province of Ontario registered one of the 10 coldest Februaries on record. Below-average temperatures also prevailed from Pakistan and Afghanistan northward through Kazakhstan and into western Siberia.

According to the NCDC report, land areas between 30 and 60 degrees North latitude – home to the vast majority of the world's developed countries – were actually cooler than the long-term February average, but not as cold as in February 2012.

There were a few pockets of warmth in the Northern Hemisphere, however. Parts of Norway and Finland registered the second-warmest February on record, behind 1990. The NCDC analysis also indicated record-warm conditions over far eastern Russia.

Southern Hemisphere temperatures were generally unremarkable in February, though overall it was the 12th-warmest February on record over Southern Hemisphere land areas.

This map shows how global temperatures in February 2014 stack up against the historical record. The deepest red (blue) shades indicate record warm (cold) temperatures, while lighter shades indicate less extreme warmth (chill). As different climates have different temperature ranges, this map indicates how extreme February 2014 was compared to long-term conditions.

Oceans: Still Very Warm

The globally-averaged sea surface temperature was the seventh-warmest on record for the month of February, coming in 0.45 Celsius degree (0.81 Fahrenheit degree) above the 20th-century average, with a very small margin of error.

According to the report, Northern Hemisphere oceans outside the tropics – i.e., north of 20 degrees latitude – were warmer last month than in any other February on record.

Meanwhile, in the tropics, where scientists are monitoring for the possibility of an El Nino developing later this year, February ocean temperatures were the 18th-warmest on record for the month.

Globally: Warm Streak Continues

For the Earth as a whole, including both land and ocean areas, 2014 tied 2001 as the 21st-warmest February on record, with a global average temperature 0.41 Celsius degree (0.74 Fahrenheit degree) above the 20th-century average. The margin of error for this measurement was 0.12 Celsius degree (0.22 Fahrenheit degree).

The global reading was substantially cooler than last February, which was the eighth-warmest on record globally; but it was slightly warmer than February 2012.

This was the 29th consecutive February and 348th consecutive month overall with a global temperature above the 20th-century average. The last time any month was cooler than the 20th-century average was February 1985.

find this story at: http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/coolest-february-1994-ncdc-global-climate-report-20140319

Spring is Arriving, But Will it Feel Like it?

Spring officially begins at 12:57 p.m. ET on Thursday. Unfortunately, sometimes the atmosphere doesn't play along and provide instant relief from winter's icy grip.

For example, in 2013 we had four significant winter storms affect parts of the northern Rockies, Plains and Midwest in April alone. In addition, temperatures were much below average across most of those regions.

So, the big question is how the start of spring is shaping up for 2014?

Chilly Start to Spring

NOAA Temperature Outlook

For those of you frustrated by the cold that we've seen during the past several months in the Midwest and parts of the East, the news is not good. The latest 6- to 10-day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center branch of NOAA shows that there is a high probability of below-average temperatures in its forecast valid for March 24 to March 28, 2014 (shown right).

Sunday's Highs

• Sunday AM Lows

Monday's Highs

• Monday AM Lows

That said, the actual first day of spring (Thursday) and Friday will see temperatures near or even above average in the Midwest, Plains and East.

Some cities in the Plains from North Dakota to the Texas Panhandle will be up to 15 degrees above average on Thursday. On Friday, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average from southwest Texas to central Oklahoma and the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

Thereafter, the next cold front charges southeast and spreads another round of below-average temperatures through all states east of the Rockies this weekend into Monday. Some locations will be 10 to 20 degrees below late-March averages.

Computer model guidance shows that another reinforcing surge of cold air will arrive in the Midwest and East during the early to middle part of next week.

The culprit for the persistently cold weather this winter, now lasting into the start of spring, is a tendency for the jet stream to dip southward repeatedly to the east of the Rockies. This has allowed bouts of Arctic air to pour into the central and eastern United States.

With the jet stream poking northward to the west of the Rockies, residents of California and the Southwest have seen persistently mild temperatures this winter. More of the same is expected there, with high probabilities of above-average warmth forecast to start the spring.

Winter Storm Next Week?

Although we are very confident in the forecast for below-average temperatures this weekend into next week, we have much less confidence in whether a storm system will tap into this cold air and produce significant winter weather in the East.

While still nearly a week away, some computer models have suggested at times in the last day or so that there is a possibility of a strong coastal storm with wind, rain and/or snow affecting portions of the Eastern Seaboard as this second surge of cold air arrives. It is currently far too early to speculate on any details beyond that. In fact, it's very possible that there ends up being no significant storm at all.

see this story at: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/spring-arrives-will-it-feel-it-20140318

Dry Pattern to Continue for Drought-Stricken California

A dry weather pattern has returned to much of California after the recent spell of rainy weather, leaving residents wondering when they will see rain again.

Although no major storms are on the horizon, moisture streaming over the Pacific Northwest will occasionally dip southward, bringing a few opportunities for rain in northern and central California through next week.

Despite some rain in the forecast, it does not appear like it will be enough to have a meaningful impact on the severe drought gripping nearly all of the state.

Rounds of rain will be seen over northern portions of the state through midweek with the moisture taking its first dip southward on Thursday. This will bring the next chance of rain to cities such as San Francisco, Sacramento, Fresno and Redding.

This swath of moisture looks to depart the region by Friday before diving southward once again on Sunday, affecting the same areas.

After this second push, it does not appear like any rain will be seen over the state until at least the end of next week, possibly longer.

Unfortunately, this rain is not forecast to reach Southern California, keeping cities such as Los Angeles and San Diego dry all the way through next week.

read this story at: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dry-pattern-to-continue-for-ca-1/24001524

Snowiest Cities of Winter 2013-2014

#5: Billings, Mont.

Ranked No. 5 on that list is Billings, which has seen its third snowiest winter on record.

• Snow this season: 91.5 inches
• Compared to average: 259 percent of average snowfall or 56.5 inches above average
• Snowiest season on record: 98.7 inches in 1996-1997
• At least four inches of snow has fallen on 10 different days this winter, beating the previous record of seven days set in 1984-1985

#4: Buffalo, N.Y.

Buffalo would need another 14.1 inches of snow to even enter its list of top 10 snowiest winters. But since it's America's fourth snowiest large city and has seen well above-average snowfall, it makes the top five.

• Snow this season: 106.4 inches
• Compared to average: 132 percent of average snowfall or 26 inches above average
• Snowiest season on record: 199.4 inches in 1976-1977

#3: Grand Rapids, Mich.

This western Lower Michigan city has seen a very snowy winter thanks to both organized winter storms and lake-effect snow. Overall, Grand Rapids has had its second snowiest winter in records dating back to the late 1800s.

• Snow this season: 110.4 inches
• Compared to average: 167 percent of average snowfall or 44.4 inches above average
• Snowiest season on record: 132 inches in 1951-1952

#2: Syracuse, N.Y.

Snowfall has been just a little above average in this western New York location. However, since it is historically the snowiest large city in America with an average annual snowfall total 126.9 inches, it easily makes the top five even with just near-average snowfall this winter.

• Snow this season: 114.1 inches
• Compared to average: 109 percent of average snowfall or 9.7 inches above average
• Snowiest season on record: 192.1 inches in 1992-1993

#1: Erie, Pa.

Erie is America's snowiest city with a population of 100,000 or greater this winter through March 3. Dating back to the late 1800s, the winter of 2013-2014 ranks as the eighth snowiest on record in this city near the shore of Lake Erie. Historically, Erie has ranked as the second snowiest large city in the country.

• Snow this season: 123.9 inches
• Compared to average: 145 percent of average snowfall or 38.2 inches above average
• Snowiest season on record: 149.1 inches in 2000-2001

read the full story at:http://www.weather.com/news/snowiest-cities-winter-2013-2014-20140303?pageno=5

Winter Weather Live Updates: Tracking Winter Weather in Parts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi

A weak disturbance has brought freezing rain to parts of central and southeast Texas Tuesday morning; a shrinking zone from just east of Austin to just west and north of Houston may see additional ice accumulation through midday.

Farther east, parts of Louisiana, from Lake Charles to Alexandria and Baton Rouge, will also see areas of freezing rain and sleet continue through late morning or midday. Parts of southern Mississippi just north of the Louisiana border have also reported icy bridges and overpasses Tuesday morning due to freezing rain.

This is resulting in dangerous travel conditions, particularly on bridges and overpasses in the most affected areas. In addition, localized areas could see broken tree limbs or power outages.

In addition, extreme and lengthy traffic jams have been reported on I-40 and I-55 in eastern Arkansas Tuesday morning due to ice-glazed roads leftover from Winter Storm Titan, which struck that area Sunday and Monday, and the subfreezing temperatures that have followed.

for more info, go to: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-live-updates-snow-ice-latest-20131106

Winter Won't Give Up: March Temperature Records Set in Northeast and Midwest

Bitterly cold temperatures moved into the Northeast Monday and Tuesday, resulting in another round of record-breaking March temperatures for the nation's northern tier.

In Baltimore, the low temperature late Monday night dipped to 5 degrees, tying the all-time coldest March low temperature on record in the city last set on March 4, 1873. This record was then broken on Tuesday morning when the temperature fell to 4 degrees.

Atlantic City, N.J. broke its record coldest March low temperature late Monday night, dipping to a shivering 2 degrees. The actual location of this record is at the Atlantic City International Airport, which is located just inland form Atlantic City in Pomona, N.J.

In Charlottesville, Va. the low temperature bottomed out at 1 degree above zero Tuesday morning, shattering the city's all-time March record low of 7 degrees.

To get a look at some more of the notable cold records that have been set the last several days dating back to Feb. 27, go to: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/bitter-cold-finish-february-20140221

Why Is Great Lakes Ice Nearing a Record High, While Arctic Ice Hits a Record Low?

This winter in the Arctic has been dramatically different from the season we've experienced so far much of the central and eastern U.S., and it's fueling an equally dramatic debate within the scientific community about climate change and whether global warming is playing a role – or not.

Across the Great Lakes, striking images have been captured of near-record amounts of ice covering the lakes' surface, especially in places like Lake Superior's Apostle Islands National Lakeshore, whose majestic shoreline ice caves opened recently for the first time in five years.

Nearly 90 percent of the Great Lakes has been covered in ice thanks to this year's bitterly cold winter, a number that's up dramatically from last year's ice cover maximum of 38.4 percent and way up from 2012's cover, which reached a maximum of just 12.9 percent.

But in the Arctic, ice amounts have followed the opposite trajectory as this winter has brought record low amounts of sea ice, the kind that grows and retreats seasonally every year in response to warming (or cooling) air and ocean temperatures.

On Feb. 18 – during the month when it normally reaches its highest amount for the year – Arctic sea extent measured about 8.93 million square miles, down roughly 7,000 square miles from the previous record low for the same date since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s.

Much warmer-than-normal Arctic temperatures are believed to be the main cause, as temperatures during the first half of February ranged from 7.2 to 14.4°F above average across the polar region.

read more at: http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/why-arctic-sea-ice-record-low-great-lakes-ice-record-high-20140223

Ice Jams Close Bridge in Illinois, Prompt Flooding Concerns in Ohio and Pennsylvania

As rivers and lakes in the Midwest temporarily began to thaw from a long, frosty winter, some residents have been asked to evacuate as ice jams encroach on their lives.

According to NOAA, an ice jam occurs when pieces of floating ice are carried downstream and build up behind any obstruction. Water gets held back by the impediment, and if the ice jam suddenly breaks free, the rush of water can lead to flooding downstream.

Late last week, mild temperatures allowed ice to wriggle free and flow downstream in multiple states. Southwest of Chicago, ice jams on the Kankakee River forced water over the river banks, NBC Chicago reports. Along this river, ice jams are an annual occurrence, but conditions have gotten so bad this year that a bridge near Kankakee River State Park had to be closed after ice jams piled up and may have caused structural damage to the bridge.

The swollen river drew dozens of onlookers who stood on bridges to take pictures of the massive ice chunks, according to a WGN-TV report. There's little that can be done about these ice jams, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers told WGN, but last week, warm water was pumped from a Will County nuclear plant to melt some of the ice chunks.

Not every Northern town threatened by flooding has that option, and there's plenty more ice jams on the way as temperatures rise on the long trek toward spring. In Vermilion, Ohio, the Vermilion River, which flows into nearby Lake Erie, is so jammed with ice that some residents had to be evacuated, according to a Cleveland.com report. To the east, an ice jam along Rocky River broke free, providing good news for nearby towns on edge.

In western Pennsylvania, flood warnings have been issued for Armstrong and Clarion counties due to an ice jam that is blocking the Allegheny River, creating a backflow of water into Parker, according to an Associated Press report. State Route 268 has been flooded and at least two people have been rescued from the floodwaters in Parker.

find this story at: http://www.weather.com/news/commuter-conditions/ice-jams-midwest-20140224

Winter Won't Give Up: Bitterly Cold Finish to February

The start of March is just a few days away, so visions of shedding your heavy coat and placing it into storage might be entering your mind.

Unfortunately, the weather pattern for the final days of February and the start of March won't cooperate with that thought process, particularly if you live along the northern tier of the United States.

Winter's Frigid Temperatures Hang On

It's a weather pattern that residents of the central and eastern states are very familiar with this winter, and also probably frustrated with. 

Once again the polar jet stream is plunging southward, tapping bitter cold air directly from the Arctic Ocean. This latest frigid plunge will engulf the nation's northern tier into the weekend. For the middle of the week, much of the South will join in on the shivering. 

Let's step through the details of the forecast.

• Where: After oozing across the Midwest and Northeast the past few days, below-average temperatures will make a more dramatic southward plunge Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will be 10 to 30 degrees colder than late-February averages across most of the Midwest and parts of the Northeast into this weekend. At times, portions of the Upper Midwest and northern Plains could be up to 35 or 40 degrees below average. Some daily record low temperatures will be threatened in the Midwest each morning from Wednesday through Friday.
• Midwest Region Details: High temperatures in the single digits and teens will dominate from eastern Montana through the Upper Midwest to parts of the Great Lakes; subzero highs will return to parts of the Upper Midwest at times, especially Thursday. Lows will be in the single digits and teens below zero from the northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes. Some 20s below zero are possible near the Canadian border (North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin). Wind chills at times this week will be in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero from the northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.
• Northeast Region Details: Highs will be in the 20s and 30s along the I-95 corridor from Boston to Philadelphia much of this week, though the Baltimore-Washington area will get occasional milder reprieves. Lows may fall into the teens by late week. Elsewhere, highs in the teens and 20s will take over locations from northern New England to western New York and western Pennsylvania.
• South Region Details: Highs in the 40s and 50s will take over a large part of the South by Wednesday. Some 30s are possible in the Mid-South and southern Appalachians. Widespread lows in the 20s and 30s building into the Mid-South and Southern Plains Wednesday morning, then spreading into the Deep South and Carolinas by Thursday morning, lingering into Friday morning. Below-freezing low temperatures may reach the Gulf Coast of Mississippi and Alabama Thursday morning. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average will briefly dip as far south as central Florida Thursday, bringing highs in the low to mid 60s.

As we enter the first week of March, the latest long-range outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows that below-average temperatures may continue across much of the country east of the Rockies.

find this story at: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/bitter-cold-finish-february-20140221