Severe Weather Forecast: Isolated Severe Storms Next Few Days; Larger Threat Possible Midweek

A few severe storms are expected through Tuesday, mainly in the Plains. By midweek, the threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, may increase in the central states. Below are the forecast details for the regions affected.

Isolated Severe Storms Early This Week

Isolated severe storms are possible in several areas through Tuesday. Large hail and localized damaging wind gusts are the main concerns in the areas highlighted below.

Monday: A few severe thunderstorms are possible in the south-central states; see inset map for the specific risk area.

Tuesday: A small chance of severe thunderstorms for the High Plains of western Nebraska and western Kansas.

More Widespread Severe Threat Possible Later This Week

During the middle part of the week ahead, a potent dip in the jet stream will emerge into the nation's midsection from the Rockies. At the same time, increasing moisture will flow northward into the Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. This type of atmospheric setup is one that we see each spring and can be conducive to sparking significant severe weather.

That said, as is typical several days in advance, there remains some uncertainty in the details. This includes the magnitude of the tornado threat, timing and the exact geographic locations that will be affected.

One of the common sources of uncertainty, especially in the earlier stages of spring, is how far north moist, unstable air will be able to travel.

The two maps to the right illustrate the general areas we will be watching for severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Here is a day-by-day look at the threat (subject to change):

Wednesday: Central and southern Plains. A "cap" of warm air aloft may limit or delay thunderstorm development. Lack of rich moisture in the atmosphere means these storms will probably take the form of isolated, rapidly developing, and visually spectacular thunderstorms in the late-afternoon and evening. Some of them will probably be rotating supercells with very large hail and damaging winds; some tornadoes are possible, but with the somewhat dry air near the ground, the tornado threat may be tempered somewhat.

Thursday: From northeast Texas to parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Again, thunderstorms may be somewhat spotty in nature, but any that form could spawn large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. There is more uncertainty about the eastward movement of the parent storm system at this point, so confidence in the geographic area of Thursday's red zone is lower.

This Weekend

The American and European models disagree significantly on the details, but signs are pointing to the possibility of a more dangerous severe weather episode, including tornadoes, for Oklahoma and nearby parts of Texas and Kansas on Saturday. We still have plenty of time to monitor this situation.

Stay tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com for continuing updates as we move into the heart of the typical spring tornado season.

find this story at: http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/americas-morning-headquarters/severe-weather-tracker-page