The most dangerous month of the year for wild fires is underway in California and starting off with a significant heat wave. Last week’s rainfall had little impact on the overall drought conditions but was a welcome respite nevertheless and hopefully a harbinger of some drought relief as the rainy season approaches.
Welcome rainfall of 0.30” to over 3” brought relief to the northern half of California on September 24-26 and helped squelch the massive King Wild Fire but, unfortunately, they hardly made a dent to the state’s overall drought situation and ground moisture conditions, let alone reservoir levels.
To make matters worse, a significant heat wave has now engulfed the state and raised the specter of more wild fires to come. Temperatures on Thursday, October 2nd, broke records in southwestern California where Santee, Ventura, and Fullerton all hit 102°F (38.9°C), the warmest places in the nation. Santa Maria, on the normally cool coastline hit 100°F (37.8°C) breaking its previous daily record of 96°F (35.6°C) set in 1945. Long Beach (in the Los Angeles area) had a record 98°F (36.7°C) beating out the former record for the date of 96°F (35.6°C) also set in 1945. The San Francisco Bay Area was also hot, but not in record territory. Salinas was the warm spot reaching 97°F (36.1°C) and San Francisco (airport location) reached 91°F (32.8°C), its 2nd hottest day of the year so far (following a 92°F/33.3°C reading on May 13th). Although impressive, October often registers the hottest temperatures of the year for coastal locations in the state. Monterey’s hottest temperature on record occurred on October 5, 1987 when a scorching 104°F (40°C) was observed. Eureka’s all-time heat record happened even later in the month, on October 26, 1993 with an 87°F (30.6°C) reading. San Francisco has seen several occasions of 100°F+ temperatures during October. UPDATE: On Friday, October 3rd, record temperatures continued. San Francisco Airport reached 95°F and San Francisco Downtown 92°F, both figures represent the warmest temperatures observed so far this year. Pacifica, right on the coast, reached 96°F. A little further south, Gilroy peaked at 105°F, the hottest place in the nation on Friday. Monterey measured a daily record high of 96°F. Santa Cruz was 99°F.
The cause for the October warmth is when the first outbreaks of cold air from Canada invade the Rocky Mountain states which causes a high pressure ridge to build over California and strong offshore flow winds to form at the surface. These are the same winds (known as the Santa Ana and Diablo winds) that have caused some of California’s worst wild fires on record. Fortunately, during the current heat wave, very strong offshore winds are not forecast to develop. In any case, the heat wave is expected to last through the weekend with even hotter temperatures expected at most locations on Friday and Saturday (I will update the numbers and new records this weekend).
Needless to say, the hot dry conditions have completely eliminated the beneficial effects of the September rainfall, and conditions have set the stage for a critical month, both in terms of the drought and potential wild fires. Reservoir capacities continue to shrink: Lake Oroville, one of the state’s most important water storage facilities, is now down to 30% capacity, approaching its all-time record low of 26% set in 1977 during the state’s worst drought on record.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
Hurricane Simon Becomes Season's Eighth Major Hurricane Off Baja California Coast
Hurricane Simon has become the eighth major hurricane of the 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, according to data from U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunters flying inside the storm. The flight crew determined that Simon had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph as of 11 a.m. PDT Saturday, making it a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Simon became the eighteenth named Eastern Pacific tropical storm of the season off the coast of Mexico on October 2. By late October 3, Simon strengthened into the thirteenth hurricane of the season.
Hurricane Simon is embedded in an environment of relatively low wind shear (changing wind direction and/or speed with height typically hostile to developing or mature tropical cyclones), moist air, and warm sea-surface temperatures which has supported a burst of rapid intensification. This strengthening should level off and Simon should peak in intensity late Saturday or Saturday night.
Simon is expected to track toward the west-northwest over the next several days, with its center likely to remain offshore of the Mexican Pacific coast.
With that said, outer rainbands on the periphery of Simon's circulation will continue to wring out locally heavy rain, which could trigger flash flooding and mudslides across the middle and southern extent of Baja California. As much as 5 to 10 inches of rain, as well as locally higher amounts of 15 inches, are expected to fall within Baja. Rain of this intensity would cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides, including the Los Cabos area, which was hard hit by Category 3 Hurricane Odile last month and is still cleaning up from the damage.
In addition, large swells and rough surf will create dangerous rip tides and ocean currents along the coast of Baja.
At this time, it appears this system is not a major wind threat to the storm-weary Baja Peninsula. Any possible north to northeast curve in track early next week will take Simon over cooler water and into an environment of increasing wind shear and more stable air, inducing weakening.
Simon became the eighteenth named Eastern Pacific tropical storm of the season off the coast of Mexico on October 2. By late October 3, Simon strengthened into the thirteenth hurricane of the season.
Hurricane Simon is embedded in an environment of relatively low wind shear (changing wind direction and/or speed with height typically hostile to developing or mature tropical cyclones), moist air, and warm sea-surface temperatures which has supported a burst of rapid intensification. This strengthening should level off and Simon should peak in intensity late Saturday or Saturday night.
Simon is expected to track toward the west-northwest over the next several days, with its center likely to remain offshore of the Mexican Pacific coast.
With that said, outer rainbands on the periphery of Simon's circulation will continue to wring out locally heavy rain, which could trigger flash flooding and mudslides across the middle and southern extent of Baja California. As much as 5 to 10 inches of rain, as well as locally higher amounts of 15 inches, are expected to fall within Baja. Rain of this intensity would cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides, including the Los Cabos area, which was hard hit by Category 3 Hurricane Odile last month and is still cleaning up from the damage.
In addition, large swells and rough surf will create dangerous rip tides and ocean currents along the coast of Baja.
At this time, it appears this system is not a major wind threat to the storm-weary Baja Peninsula. Any possible north to northeast curve in track early next week will take Simon over cooler water and into an environment of increasing wind shear and more stable air, inducing weakening.
Derecho Hits Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana, Knocking Out Power to Thousands; Fort Worth Stockyards Heavily Damaged
A derecho, or long-lived severe weather system with damaging straight-line winds, moved through Arkansas, North Texas and Louisiana on Thursday, tearing roofs off houses, downing huge trees and knocking out power for hundreds of thousands. At least three tornadoes have been confirmed, an EF1 in Hopkinsville, Kentucky, and EF1 near Benton, Kentucky and EF0 near Waldenburg, Arkansas.
"A warm, moist air mass set up throughout Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas on Thursday. Temperatures were in the upper 80s for much of the region, and dew points were even in the 70s," said weather.com meteorologist Chrissy Warrilow. "This warm, moist air served as the 'fuel' that enhanced and sustained the thunderstorms that developed along a plunging cold front."
Texas
Strong storms that barreled through Dallas and Fort Worth left behind damage to buildings and vehicles, knocked out power for hundreds of thousands and at injured at least two people. Wind gusts reached speeds as high as 83 mph in the town of Wills Point, east of Dallas, according to local storm reports.
At least one person was struck by lightning in Texas, KXII reports. A female teacher at Lamar Elementary School in Denison was getting into her car when lightning struck nearby, the report added. KXII also said she never lost consciousness, but was transferred to Texoma Medical Center for precautionary reasons.
Another person suffered minor injuries after a roof blew off at Arlington Baptist College, the Arlington Police Department reports.
Images on Twitter showed major damage to the Fort Worth Stockyards, a popular tourist attraction with restaurants and clubs. A wall appears to have collapsed and piles of bricks were crushing several vehicles. A revolving door was destroyed by high winds at the University of North Texas Health Science Center, according to National Weather Service storm reports.
http://www.weather.com/safety/thunderstorms/southern-plains-southeast-derecho-20141003
October Chill Targets the East, Summer Returns in the West
The calendar now says "October," and a plunge of chilly air is driving south in time for the month's first weekend in the Midwest and East. Meanwhile, the West coast will be heating back up.
This past Sunday, Caribou, Maine basked in 84-degree warmth, the hottest temperature on record so late in the season, there. Daily record highs were also set Sunday in at least a dozen other northern cities, including Newark (87), Providence (86), Sault Ste. Marie (80) and Duluth (81).
Changes, however, are in the wind, and they will continue into the weekend. An upper-atmospheric trough is carving southward into the East and Midwest, while a corresponding upper-atmospheric ridge builds into the West. The past few days we have had a ridge in the East and a trough in the West.
This pattern change will bring temperatures that are 20-30 degrees colder for some locations in the northern Plains. Temperatures will also be cooler in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, where highs will go from the 70s and 80s this past weekend, to the 50s and 60s, with a few locations in the Midwest even staying in the 40s, this weekend.
Over the weekend, we can't rule out a few wet snowflakes mixing in with a cold, wind-driven light rain from Minnesota and Iowa into Illinois and Michigan.
In fact, there should be bands of lake-enhanced rain, and yes, perhaps some wet flakes in the hills away from the lakes, overnight through at least early Sunday from Upper Michigan to central and Upstate New York. Quite a calling card for fall, eh?
So fall conditions will likely return to the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, while summer won't let go of the West coast yet. Fall is definitely a season of change and this will be apparent to many as we head through early October.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-forecast/pattern-change-ahead-20140927
Friday, October 3, 2014
Typhoon in Japan
Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Phanfone is steaming northwest at 11 mph towards Japan, and is likely to bring that nation serious flooding problems over the weekend. Satellite loops show that Phanfone is a large and well-organized typhoon with a prominent eye and a large area of intense thunderstorms. However, conditions for intensification are no longer as favorable, with wind shear now a high 20 knotson Friday morning. Ocean temperatures remained warm, though, near 30°C (86°F). Ocean temperatures will cool sharply and wind shear will rise further on Saturday as the typhoon approaches Japan, weakening the storm. Our two top models for predicting typhoon tracks, the GFS and European, predicted with their 00Z Friday runs that Phanfone would hit the main Japanese island of Honshu near 18 UTC on Sunday.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2817
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2817
Quietest Atlantic Hurricane Season Since 1986
The traditional busiest month of the Atlantic hurricane season, September, is now over, and we are on the home stretch. Just three weeks remain of the peak danger portion of the season. September 2014 ended up with just two named storms forming--Dolly and Edouard. Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, only one season has seen fewer named storms form in September--1997, with Category 3 Hurricane Erika being the only September storm. Between 1995 - 2014, an average of 4.3named storms formed in September. With only five named storms so far in 2014, this is the quietest Atlantic hurricane season since 1986, when we also had just five named storms by the beginning of October. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), activity in the Atlantic up until October 1 has been only about 43% of the 1981 - 2010 average.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2815
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2815
Thursday, October 2, 2014
Severe Weather Slams Dallas, Millions Under Threat
A line of powerful thunderstorms rumbled across Dallas on Thursday, knocking out power for thousands and grounding flights — part of a system that stretched to the Great Lakes and threatened 40 million with flash floods, hail and perhaps even tornadoes.
Emergency management officials, already busy with the city’s response to the first U.S. diagnosis of Ebola, had to shift their attention. “Short break from Ebola Response to Severe Weather management,” Dallas emergency officials said on Twitter.
Gusts as strong as 70 mph, almost the force of a tropical storm, were recorded as the storms tore through Dallas in the late afternoon, The Weather Channel reported. Police reported one minor injury after the roof was blown off a building at Arlington Baptist College, and a teacher in Denison was taken to the hospital after lightning either struck her or struck the ground next to her outside an elementary school, the county emergency management director said.
Hundreds of thousands were without power across Texas late Thursday, including nearly 263,000 in the Dallas-Fort Worth area alone, according to Oncor Electric Delivery.
More than 700 flights into and out of Chicago were scrapped. It was mostly a precaution, but it complicated the travel mess created by a fire at a radar facility there last week.
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