Godzilla

Godzilla' weather pattern may hit California in fall, winter

In 1998, the Times noted, the region saw so much rain so quickly that widespread flooding and mudslides killed 17 people and caused more than half a billion dollars in damage. Downtown Los Angeles got nearly a year's worth of rain in February alone.

Mike Halpert of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center warned that one season of above-normal rain and snow "is very unlikely to erase four years of drought," KTLA reported.

State climatologist Michael Anderson agreed, saying in a statement that California "cannot count on potential El Niño conditions to halt or reverse drought conditions." Historical weather data show that there's a 50% chance at best of California seeing a wetter winter. "Unfortunately, due to shifting climate patterns, we cannot even be that sure," he said.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/08/13/godzilla-el-nino/31647757/

88 Homes Evacuated in New Mexico

"Surging floodwaters prompted authorities in Carlsbad, New Mexico, to urge residents to evacuate their homes early Monday morning.

According to Emergency Center spokesman Kenny Rayroux, crews went door-to-door in the James Street area urging residents of 88 homes to evacuate. People in another 30 homes along Fiesta Street were told to be ready to leave, if necessary. "

http://www.weather.com/storms/severe/news/carlsbad-new-mexico-flooding-20140922

Washington Wildfire

http://www.weather.com/safety/wildfires/news/western-wildfires-latest-news 

The largest wildfire in Washington state history grew by another 22 square miles on Friday, and fire officials worried that high winds over the weekend would only make the situation worse.

At least 472 square miles of land have been burned by the Okanogan fires, which were only 23 percent contained Saturday afternoon.The wind-whipped and drought-fueled fire has destroyed at least 45 homes, 49 cabins and 60 outbuildings, and three firefighters have died battling the blaze. A memorial service was planned Sunday in Wenatchee.

Fire spokeswoman Sierra Hellstrom said temperatures were lower and humidity higher on Friday — conditions expected to slow the fire.However, lightning and high winds predicted for the weekend could spread the flames, she said.The fire was just five miles from merging with a 281-square-mile wildfire north of Nespelem, Hellstrom said.

Meanwhile, a wildfire burning in Stevens County north of Spokane grew almost 15 square miles overnight after jumping a containment line and stood at 87 square miles. That fire was about 25 percent contained.

"The winds, terrain and vegetation have created the potential for large growth," fire officials said in a press release.

With wind gusts expected to reach 20 mph, firefighters were concerned the blaze could threaten homes.

Meanwhile, high fire danger prompted the U.S. Forest Service to close an area north of Highway 2 that includes a major portion of the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest from f the Columbia River to the crest of the Cascade Range.

All the fires burning in eastern Washington were hurting air quality. Readings were hazardous in Republic, Omak and Nespelem, and unhealthy in Colville, Wellpinit and Davenport.

More than 7.7 million acres have burned in wildfires this year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. That's well above the 10-year average of about 5.4 million acres through Aug. 28.

There are currently dozens of large wildfires burning across the West; here's an update on a few of them.

Course of Deadly Tropical Storm Erika Puzzles Forecasters

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/course-deadly-tropical-storm-erika-puzzles-forecasters-n417386

    Forecasters and emergency agencies prepped for a long weekend early Friday as Tropical Storm Erika wobbled toward Puerto Rico and then the southern Atlantic coast, where it could be a hurricane when it arrives early next week. A tropical storm warning was in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after Erika caused mudslides blamed for at least four deaths on the Caribbean island of Dominica. More than 12 inches of rain poured down on Dominica in less than 12 hours, the National Weather Service said — and it could do close to the same overnight and Friday on Puerto Rico, where forecasters warned that major flooding is possible. After that, it's anybody's guess.

    The center of Erika started "wobbling" Thursday, according to the weather service, making it difficult to project its course. The storm was about 135 miles south east of San Juan, Puerto Rico, at 11 p.m. Thursday night with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. Late Thursday afternoon, forecasters said Erika looked increasingly likely to reach the U.S. mainland Monday night or Tuesday morning, possibly as a Category 1 hurricane.

   TODAY (Aug. 28, 2015) weather anchor Al Roker said coastal areas were likely to get 5 to 7 inches of rain by next week — with some getting as much as a foot."

"It's been 10 years since Florida had a significant hurricane, and this one could be the one," Roker said Thursday evening.

Watch Issued for Hawaii

Highlights:

• Hurricane Ignacio is located roughly 525 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii Saturday afternoon, EDT.
• Hurricane Ignacio strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane Saturday. Slow weakening is forecast by Sunday.
• Ignacio is not a threat to land this weekend, but may come close to Hawaii as early as Monday Tuesday.
• A tropical storm watcis in effect for the Big Island of Hawaii.
• Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this latest hurricane.

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Latest Storm Information

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Ignacio Watches/Warnings

Watches mean conditions are possible within 48 hours. Warnings mean conditions are expected within 36 hours.

Ignacio continues to strengthen in a favorable environment for tropical cyclone, just over 500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Wind shear remains somewhat low and ocean temperatures are still warm. Ignacio is likely to remain a major hurricane for at least the next 12 to 24 hours. 

Later this weekend, however, conditions are expected to become less favorable, with an increase in wind shear and slightly cooler water temperatures, so a weakening trend is likely as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands.

The increase in wind shear is thanks to the proximity of the subtropical jet over the Hawaiian Islands. As Ignacio gains latitude, it will likely face increased shear, which tends to push convection away from the center of tropical cyclones.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-ignacio-hurricane-eastern-pacific-hawaii-august-2015

Major Pattern Change Coming to U.S.

Pattern Change Overview

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Jet Stream Pattern

The forecast jet stream pattern on Sunday.

The key to this pattern change is the rearrangement of the jet stream across North America. The jet stream is a ribbon of fast winds aloft in the upper atmosphere that helps dictate the weather conditions we see near the surface of the earth.

Right now, the jet stream is dipping south across the eastern half of the United States. This has brought a cooler, refreshing air mass to parts of the Midwest, East and even the Deep South. Through this weekend, the main ribbon of strong winds associated with the jet stream will build north into Canada, though there will be some lagging upper-level energy in the East south of the main jet stream. The end result is building warmth across the nation's midsection and points east.

At the same time, the jet stream will buckle southward along the West Coast in response to its northward shift in the East. This will bring much cooler air and the potential for some welcome rainfall to the Pacific Northwest.

The pattern change may also play a role in helping to steer the latest Atlantic named storm, Erika. However this will depend on Erika's future path and intensity. For more on that story, click here. 

http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/pattern-change-late-august-early-september-northwest-midwest-east

The Details of Hurricane Ignacio

On Saturday morning Hurricane Ignacio was declared a category three storm, however it is expected to weaken over the weekend. While the storm is located 600 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and currently no threat to land, a tropical storm watch has been implemented for the Big Islands of Hawaii. The storm is currently strengthening due to the relativltey low winds and warm ocean temperatures. However conditions are expected to become less favorable as the wind shear increases and the ocean temperatures become cooler. The change in conditions will causes the hurricane to become weaker. The increase in wind shear is thanks to the proximity of the subtropical jet over the Hawaiian Islands. As Ignacio gains latitude, it will likely face increased shear, which tends to push convection away from the center of tropical cyclones.

The picture to the left displays the current projected path of the storm. The picture on the right represents the latest details of the storm. 

Original article: http://www.wunderground.com/news/tropical-storm-ignacio-hurricane-eastern-pacific-hawaii-august-2015