When the first hurricane emerges from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico
this season, NOAA will use a new statistical model to help predict the start of
the “eyewall replacement cycle,” a key indicator that a storm’s strength and
size is about to change dramatically. This new tool adds to a suite of forecast
products NOAA uses to warn coastal communities of imminent threats.
An eyewall is an organized band of clouds that immediately surround the
center, or eye, of a hurricane. The most intense winds and rainfall occur near
the eyewall. Within a hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles occur when a second
concentric eyewall forms around the original and eventually overtakes it. This
phenomenon especially happens in strong, long-lived hurricanes.
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