Monday, November 11, 2013

Cold Blast for Midwest

Typical of fall, temperatures do their fair share of rising and falling with each cold front that sweeps through.
Such is the case over the next several days as the jet stream takes a sharp plunge south from Canada across the Plains, Midwest, Deep South, then into the eastern states. This jet stream dip will be accompanied by a chilly, expansive area of high pressure at the surface that can be traced back to the Arctic.
This pattern change will lead to a widespread area of well-below-average temperatures. Let's take a closer look at the colder forecast details and see if any snow will also be squeezed out.

The Cold

Background

Highs Compared to Average Wednesday

Highs Compared to Average Wednesday

Temperatures over 20 degrees below average in some cases will progress south and east from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast and East Coast through Thursday.
Monday (MAP: Highs): Temperatures won't rise out of the 20s in the Dakotas, parts of eastern Montana, Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Morning lows in the single digits and teens are likely in North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northeast Montana. Wind chills, particularly in the morning, may dip below zero in some of these areas.
Tuesday (MAPS: Highs | Lows): Highs may hold in the 20s around Lake Superior. Most cities across the Midwest and Northeast will not rise out of the 30s or 40s. Highs in Dallas-Fort Worth and Nashville will be 20-25 degrees colder than Monday. Some single-digit lows are likely in parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Morning lows in the teens may plunge as far south as northern Kansas, northern Missouri and western Illinois.
Wednesday (MAPS: Highs | Lows): As illustrated by the map to the right, temperatures will be up to 20 degrees below average over an expansive area from the Midwest to the Deep South and East Coast. Highs may hold in the 50s in parts of north Florida and the northern Gulf Coast. Morning lows in the 20s may plunge as far south as the Texas Panhandle, Dallas-Ft. Worth suburbs, Deep South and Carolinas. A few daily record lows may be threatened in parts of the Northeast (low-mid 20s) and Southeast (upper 20s to low 30s).
Thursday (MAPS: Highs | Lows): Cold lingers in the South, East, and Ohio Valley. A morning freeze is likely in the Deep South, possibly including a few spots in the Florida Panhandle, and as far south as the suburbs of Houston. A hard freeze (low to mid 20s) could reach as far south as middle Georgia, central Alabama and central Mississippi. Daily record lows are possible from parts of the Carolinas to Alabama (20s to near 30).

Any Snow?

Background

Wednesday's Forecast

Wednesday's Forecast

While this time of year is notorious for major Great Lakes snowstorms, that's not what we're forecasting with this moisture-starved Arctic cold front. Sorry, kids ... no snow day.
(INTERACTIVE MAP: Where is the snow now?)
Monday and Monday night, rain will change to light snow over parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, parts of the Appalachians, Upstate New York and far northern New England. Another area of light snow may dust parts of the northern High Plains.
Tuesday, some lingering pockets of light snow are possible in parts of the Great Lakes snow belts and Appalachians.
(FORECASTS: Chicago | Columbus | Pittsburgh)
Any snow accumulations will generally be light with the cold front itself, on the order of an inch or so (see map above at right). With that said, this "dusting" could be the first measurable snowfall of the season in locations such as:

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