CAPE VERDES SEASON ENDING AS CARIBBEAN ‘SEASON’ LIES AHEAD

ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO QUIET DOWN (EVEN MORE)

CAPE VERDES SEASON ENDING AS CARIBBEAN ‘SEASON’ LIES AHEAD 
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=239

The Low pressure center (INVEST 95L) bear the Cape Verdes and the associated Tropical Wave have drifted very slowly towards the Northeast at about 5Kts over the past few days – and will likely ‘fade away’ during the next 24-48 hours as upper level winds have become very hostile to any tropical system development. 

At the same time, the overall location of the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) and the Monsoonal TROF that extends from the ITCZ across Africa has shifted southward towards the Equatorial latitudes which is a typically seasonal transition during late SEPT. 

Indeed, across the tropical Atlantic and most of the Caribbean, easterly trades that have been very strong most of the summer have weakened significantly – and though wind shear has also fallen (especially within the CARIB) – there are now only a couple tropical waves that are moving into a still quite hostile upper level wind flow pattern. The bottom line for this week: No tropical formations are likely.

Though no developments are seen during the next 7-days, from late SEP through much of OCT, tropical formations tend to become seasonally more likely within the Caribbean as it becomes the last ‘refuge’ where upper level winds and shear typically remain conducive for cyclone formations that have a chance of impacting the US – especially as weak but distinct disturbances ‘spin down’ from the higher latitudes over the eastern US region into the western CARIB – or deep layered moisture and disturbances manage to form within the ITCZ that typically lies across Central America.