African Wave 95L and Mexico Tropical Storm

Satellite loops show that a tropical wave (Invest 95L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, has a moderate degree of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. The wave is under light wind shear and over warm waters of 28°C (82°F), conditions that favor development, but the 12Z Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that shear will rise to the moderate range, ocean temperatures will cool, and the air surrounding the storm will grow drier by Sunday, making development unlikely. Our three reliable tropical cyclone genesis models give little support for 95L becoming a tropical depression, and in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. This wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Cape Verdes Islands on Sunday. 95L does not appears to be a threat to any land areas besides the Cape Verde Islands. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2805