Record-Breaking November Arctic Cold, Round Two

By Jon Erdman 
Published: November 19, 2014

A second push of bitterly cold air has blasted its way south and east, bringing extremely cold temperatures for millions of Americans who have already endured nearly a week of January-like chill. There have been more than 350 record lows and record cool highs set, covering 42 states, since Sunday.

On Wednesday morning record lows were broken or tied from New York to New Orleans and more record lows and record cool high temperatures are possible.

Forecast High-lights:

Highs in the teens and 20s will dominate the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through Friday, resulting in what could be one of the longest sub-freezing spells on record for the month of November in parts of that region.

Highs will struggle to get much above freezing again Wednesday in much of the Northeast, including the Boston-Washington urban corridor.

These daily high temperatures will, in many cases, be colder than average January highs, let alone mid-November.

Forecast Low-lights

After a brief reprieve Wednesday morning, we expect more subzero morning lows Thursday and Friday with a yet another shot of bitter cold in the Dakotas, Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula.

Lows in the single digits and teens will stretch from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes, while lows in the 20s and 30s will remain in parts of the South, including parts of northern Florida, Thursday and Friday mornings,. 

Numerous daily record lows and record cool highs may be threatened Wednesday and Thursday from the Plains and Midwest to the Deep South, Florida and East.

How Long Will This Last?

Above is a European model forecast loop from a few days ago depicting where the coldest air will be.

With blocking high pressure aloft over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada, a direct pipeline of cold air will come from Siberia to near the North Pole, then southward into Canada and the U.S., particularly the Plains and Midwest. While not nearly as cold in magnitude, the arctic surges will also sweep into parts of the East.

This is a classic Arctic outbreak pattern that will remain largely locked in over these areas this week. 

Here is the general forecast timing of each arctic cold surge, and when the coldest air may ease:

- First arctic surge: Spread into the East last week (November 11-15).

- Second arctic surge: Currently gripping the East, Midwest, and South. For parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Middle Atlantic States, this is the coldest of the surges, with numerous daily record lows threatened.

- Third arctic surge: Reaches the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, then slides east across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast Friday and Saturday before retreating. It will not press nearly as far south as the first and second surges did.

- Cold relief: Potentially more long-lasting relief begins in the Rockies then expands into the southern Plains and Southeast Wednesday into Thursday. Midwest, Northeast relief arrives this weekend.

Forecast highs in the Twin Cities will be stuck in the teens and 20s through much of this week. This will rival the longest November subfreezing streaks on record there (see graphic at right). Some of those days will see daytime highs colder than their climatologically coldest average highs in January (23 degrees).

According to the National Weather Service, Chicago has only seen six other stretches below 40 degrees so early in the season, last occurring from Nov. 11-17, 1997. The Windy City may not see 40 degrees until this weekend.

Cold Notables So Far

- Burlington, Colorado, on the eastern Plains near the Kansas border, dipped to -10 Thursday, setting a new record low for the month of November.

- Casper, Wyoming, dipped to -27 at 11:59 p.m. Wednesday night, shattering their all-time November record low of -21 on Nov. 23, 1985 (records date to 1939). The temperature stayed at -27 at midnight Thursday, making it the new record low for Nov. 13 as well. Previously, the soonest Casper plunged to -27 was on Dec. 5, 1972. Casper's high of 6 on Nov. 11 was the record earliest single-digit or colder high temperature there. (On Nov. 15, 1955, the high was only -3 degrees). Wednesday, Casper only managed a high of 3 degrees!

- Denver's high of 6 on Nov. 12 was the coldest daily high so early in the season. Only three other November days had daily high temperatures colder in Denver, dating to 1872. Early Thursday morning, Denver chalked up a bone-chilling -14 degrees, easily the coldest temperature so early in the season. (Nov. 17, 1880 was the previous earliest such cold reading in Denver.)

- Livingston, Montana, dipped to minus 21 Wednesday, their coldest so early in the season. That said, they once dipped to minus 31 degrees just one day later in the calendar, on November 13, 1959.

- In the Southern Plains, Amarillo (21), Lubbock (27),  Childress (29) and Goodland (14) all set their coldest daily high temperatures on record for so early in the season on Wednesday.

- Riverton, Wyoming had a daytime high of 0 degrees Thursday.

- Redmond, Oregon, dropped to 19 degrees below zero Sunday morning, crushing its all-time record low for the month of November, previously 14 below zero on Nov. 15, 1955. Sunday's low was an astonishing 23 degrees colder than the previous daily record for Nov. 16 in Redmond.

- Kansas City, Missouri set a record cool high of only 23 degrees on Monday, which beat the previous record of 24, which was set back in 1891.

- Joplin, Missouri set a record low for the month of November on Tuesday with a low temperature of 6 degrees.

- Paducah, Kentucky dropped to 10 degrees on Tuesday morning setting a record low and tying the third lowest temperature ever recorded in the month of November. The high temperature on Tuesday only reached 25 degrees, which is only the second time they have had a high that cold so early in the season.

- Valentine, Nebraska had a low of -14 on Tuesday morning, which shattered their previous record of 0.

- Dallas, Texas, saw highs of 45 degrees or colder for six consecutive days, Nov. 12 through Nov. 17. This is the longest such streak on record there in the month of November, besting a five-day streak in November 1937. (That month had a total of seven non-consecutive days with highs 45 or colder; that record still stands, for now.)

- Charlotte, North Carolina recorded a low of 14 degrees on Wednesday morning making it the coldest on record so early in the season.

- Charleston, West Virginia set a record low of 12 degrees on Wednesday, which made it the coldest on record for so early in the season.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/arctic-cold-outbreak-november-locked-20141110