Severe Weather Likely in the South This Weekend; Texas, Louisiana Among States At Risk for Storms

By Linda Lam 
Published: November 19, 2014

Big changes are on the way for the South this weekend. Warmer air will return and a low pressure system will track east from the Plains, which could trigger severe thunderstorms as Thanksgiving travelers begin their journeys.

This system will likely bring severe thunderstorms from Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast from Friday into Monday. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, locally heavy rain and even a few tornadoes are possible.

High pressure will slide off the East Coast by Saturday, turning winds around to a southerly direction for the eastern U.S. These southerly winds will bring much warmer temperatures Sunday.

This southerly flow will also bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico northward into central and eastern Texas ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west. As an upper-level trough and a strong disturbance slide east, shear will increase and there may be enough instability to produce a few severe thunderstorms.


Severe Forecast Timing

Friday: Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm are possible on Friday during the day in eastern Texas and overnight in western and south-central Texas. The primary threat with these storms will be large hail and heavy rain but an isolated tornado is possible as well.

Saturday: The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms will be in eastern Texas and Louisiana. 

Saturday night: A few severe thunderstorms are likely from eastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and Louisiana eastward into Mississippi and the western panhandle of Florida. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts, heavy rain and a few tornadoes. 

Sunday: As the cold front pushes east, the risk of isolated thunderstorms will be found from southern Alabama into northern Florida, southern Georgia and eastern South Carolina. There is also a chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm farther north in northern Mississippi, Tennessee, eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia.

Monday: A few isolated severe thunderstorms may develop in parts of the Southeast, including southern Alabama, northern Florida and southern Georgia.

Additional Impacts

Widespread rain will also be found over the eastern third of the country from Saturday to Monday, which could impact travel plans as well.

Rain is expected across parts of the Midwest on Saturday and then will push eastward into the Northeast and Southeast on Sunday.

Ahead of this system, temperatures will moderate. The warm temperatures will be welcomed throughout the East, especially after the arctic chill much of the country has experienced and a few record highs are even possible.

However, the warmth will not last long as another shot of cooler air will be found behind this system.

Snow is also expected to develop on the backside of this system starting Sunday night in the northern Plains and spreading into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Monday.

http://www.wunderground.com/news/severe-storms-plains-south-weekend-20141118