Winter has eased off the gas pedal so far in December, in contrast to a persistently cold, snowy November in the Midwest and Northeast.
Despite that, atmospheric ingredients may combine to spawn a coastal storm bringing a potpourri of wind-driven heavy rain and wet snow to parts of the Northeast in the week ahead.
The Setup
Low pressure is expected to form along the western end of a stalled frontal boundary near or offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast later Monday into Tuesday and head north into New England.
At the same time, a cold front will sweep eastward through the Great Lakes into the interior Northeast.
The interaction and intensity of each of these features remains somewhat in question this far out, holding the key to all the important foreast details.
"Much of this uncertainty has to do with the way in which models handle various features that are still a continent away," says winter weather expert, Tom Niziol.
Another challenge with this system, as with most Northeast coastal storms, is how much cold air will be available.
Despite the passage of a cold front through the Northeast this weekend, the path of this coastal low appears likely to dislodge the cold air (translation: air below freezing near the surface) from a significant swath of the Northeast, at least for a time.
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