Winter 2016 Outlook

Winter 2016-17 may bring colder-than-average temperatures to the East early on, but this winter may end up warmer than average overall, according to an outlook released by The Weather Company. A weak La Niña is expected to develop, which would result in colder temperatures in the East and warmer temperatures in the West, which flips the pattern of the last several months, said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. Last winter was the Lower 48's warmest December-February period in the 121 years on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. La Nina this winter would result in more precipitation in the northern states and less in the South compared to last winter. There are indications that the East may see colder than average temperatures this winter, especially earlier in the season. However, climate computer models are depicting the expected weak La Niña in January, which would allow warmer temperatures in the East with colder conditions developing in the Pacific Northwest. In the Southwest, there will most likely be persistent above-average temperatures, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to see the best chance for persistent cold, especially in January and February.

One winter that also featured a weak La Niña and warm sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific is 1995-96, but there are differences that will likely make this winter warmer. It is important to remember that even if it is a warmer-than-average winter there will still be surges of cold temperatures, along with impactful winter storms.

NOAA extends the chance for warmer-than-average temperatures through the Southeast and also introduces an area in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest where colder than average temperatures are a possibility. In terms of precipitation, NOAA expects portions of the northern tier including the Northwest, northern Plains and Great Lakes to see above-average precipitation this winter because of a more active northern jet stream. The southern tier is expected to be drier than average, with below-average precipitation from central Texas along the northern Gulf Coast into northern and central Florida. This is not good news for portions of the South and Southeast, which are experiencing drought conditions.

In areas not covered in green or brown in the above map, there are equal chances of seeing below-or above-average precipitation. A La Niña winter could bring above-average snowfall around the Great Lakes and in the northern Rockies, with below average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic region.
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc-noaa